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Do you think Howard will leave Sirius XM?

  • Yes, he's gone

    Votes: 32 43.8%
  • No, he will stay

    Votes: 20 27.4%
  • Don't Know

    Votes: 21 28.8%
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As I'm sure many of you are aware, Howard Stern's $500 million / 5 year contract is up with Sirius at the end of the year. Howard has hinted many times that Sirius is not treating him well in terms of negotiation and looking like he will be needing to move the show. Rumours are that if he does not re-sign with Sirius he would consider creating a podcast or mobile application show.

Not sure if this is all negotiations tactics but really wonder how many people will cancel their subs if Stern leaves (perhaps a poll suggestion for Hugh)? I would be sad to see Stern leave, but wouldn't cancel my sub over it. Love Sirius too much. I find the show amusing at times, but also find they insert annoying lengthy commercials during my drive to work! I always find I am switching away during my commute.

I think Howard needs to realize that it is a much different economic environment than when he first signed with Sirius. The company nearly went bankrupt. Sirius has also indicated that if they lose Stern they will be more than happy to re-invest the money in new, better value-for-money programming for subscribers. Wonder what that could be...?
 

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I'm sure Howard is smart enough to realize the gravy train is over.

My guess is that Howard may be more interested in gaining a larger audience than gaining more money. The Sirius audience is small to what he could have with commercial radio.

My guess is he will leave.
 

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I think he's gone and I will be cancelling some of my subs to Sirius if he does as my portable radio is purely to listen to his show (I'll keep my car sub)
 

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He's gone. My brother got Sirius just for Stern, and I'm pretty sure he'll cancel after HS leaves. I went XM, and couldn't care less for Stern.
 

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I think his avoiding the subject could be tactics to affect the share price. Investors could get nervous and start selling as the deadline nears. I know that I will definitely be buying if the price starts to drop like it did in the past. I can live without Howard, although I do enjoy listening to his show. I don't think that he will go anywhere, the potential audience of Internet radio may be larger but the reality is that most of his listeners are commuters and his show is not appropriate for most work environments that have widespread Internet access.
 

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He has to leave...there's no way that satellite radio will grossly overpay for the likes of Stern and Oprah like they did five years ago when this industry was still seen as a strong potential.

I'm guessing he's being offered far less, to the point where if he accepts it, he's damaging his brand.
 

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How does getting paid less "damage his brand"?
 

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If my product commands $100MM per year today, and I sell it for for $50MM per year tomorrow, I'm saying that I'm now only worth half as much.
 

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So how does that affect "damage his brand"

If Panasonic sold a plasma last year for $2,000 and sells it this year for $1,500, do you really think that "damages" the Panasonic brand?

Market Value and the quality of your brand are not the same. One is quantitative, the other qualitative.
 

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I don't believe it to be a fair comparison Hugh. If Sidney Crosby finished his $8M or whatever his current contract is and is only offered $4M for a new contract would you not say that it damaged the Sidney Crosby brand?

If your boss comes to your desk and tells you that your pay will have to be cut by 40% does that not come with negative connotations?

People are expected to be worth more as they gain experience and anything contrary to that suggests they are not as "good" as they were in the past.

I never listened to Howard Stern and the only thing I can remember from the movie which I watched is Jenna stripping in his studio........good times.....
 

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I've listened to him a total of an hour or two over the almost 4 years I've had Sirius. Really, if I want to hear fart and masterbation jokes, I can listen in on a group of 14 year olds.
 

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I think the difference is that Panasonic releases a new model every year with more bells and whistles, etc, that maintains its prestige and reputation while protecting revenue and margin. If the price point (and therefore the percieved value) of their entire offering were depressed year-after-year, pretty soon Panasonic would be a bottom-feeding brand at Zellers, not on display at high-end shops. In that situation, I would say its brand was damaged.

An entertainer, or a hockey player as someone pointed out, doesn't have the same revenue model.
 

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If Stern accepts a much lower amount from Sirius, he'll have that much more trouble getting back up to his previous level afterward. Don't know if that damages the brand, or just the $$$ value of the brand.
 

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I honestly don't know if he will be back, if he is, it certainly won't be at 100MM a year. I only got my original Sirius sub because of Stern, and currently I don't know if I would keep the sub if he leaves. I pretty much work from home, so I don't need 'drive-time music', and if Stern is available on-line, I can just stream it at home. If he uses some type of pay service, then I will definitely cancel my Sirius sub, to sign up for him.

And to those of you who think it's all 'fart jokes', yes, there is some of that, and yes, it can get a bit juvenile, but it is usually a pretty entertaining show, and his interviews are usually quite fascinating, because you will get information that no-one else does. But I can see that it wouldn't be everyone's cup of tea.
 

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Here's what will happen: he'll resign with Sirius, 3-year deal with an option for 2 more. Probably half the hours (3 shows per week at 4 hours max each) at 60% of the current pay. That way Howard will be able to say he's now being paid more, per hour anyway, and Sirius will be able to maintain the channels and say that they got a "better deal". It will be as close to a win-win as possible.

All that talk about his "5-point plan" and how he "knows the future of technology" was a complete joke an on-air posturing. After all it was later that same day that he couldn't even bare to listen to Ralph explain the new ipods and claimed that all of that mumbo-jumbo was too much for him.

His comments about "SIM chips in cars" and "every car having bluetooth" is equally ridiculous. Even if all of his blue collar followers did have bluetooth, they probably don't have unlimited data and streaming capabilities from their smartphones. Add to that spotty 3G coverage when driving in semi-urban areas let alone rural areas. Even if that technology was somewhat workable, it would eliminate the FTE! I was actually most surprised when Jeff Jarvis called in and instead of pointing any of that out to Howard, he just kissed ass like the rest of them. Way to blow it (yet again) Jeff!!!

That takes care of the cars, internet streaming/webcasting also opens up a whole range of problems for him. Lack of live listeners and DRM controls being two of the key ones.

Finally, Howard is a company man. Starting up his own company, studio, etc, etc, has never been his bag.

All in all, I don't think the internet solution is as easy of a solution for him as he's letting on to. And sure right now he keeps yelling "I have options" but it was only a couple of months ago that he was telling Adam Corolla that "there's no money in internet shows". Bottom line is that things are way way way better for him to continue at Sirius. Hence my prediction in my first paragraph.
 

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It's not looking good, but who knows what tactics are going on.. Me, and all of my friends that have Sirius got it just for Howard, and we will cancel if he leaves. Nothing against Sirius, we just wouldn't use our Radios if he left.
 

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I listen to Stern when I have a longer drive, I stay in touch what what is on his show and listen to re-plays when something seems like it's worth it. I guess you can call me a fan but if he goes my two subs would remain intact. The music and sports is more then enough value for me.

As for Howard, I think he will re-sign, he's just like O&A and loves to bitch on air and hope it helps his negotiations buy getting the fans involve and threaten to cancel their subs if Howard leaves, as for how many actually do, who knows. I believe the best market for him like Deckster says is in in Satellite Radio, streaming can get expensive for people and who can listen at work? I am sure whatever deal he configures he will make it seem like his idea and he will have 'won'. Stern is a little cocky for his own good sometimes.

Sirius will last with or without him I am pretty positive.
 

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I believe he will resign. Shorter work week and less money. One thing about his alleged $5M signing; a good deal of Howard's compensation from Sirius is in company stock. If he leaves, what does that do his stock value? Also, much of that was paid in order to bring in new listeners and help to sink XM - which he did. The situation now is a little different and may not command those kinds of $ figures. He was paid to save/expand Sirius by essentially getting a piece of the company. The wise thing to do is to resign, continue to build his channels and hope that auto sales and a recovering economy will leave him in a better financial position in 3years or so.
 

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First of all, people have to realize that the deal wasn't 100 million a year. He has said as much dozens of times on his show. As far as I understand, he got a base amount per year and the rest was in stock options that at the time of his signing was estimated with his salary to be worth 500 million over 5 years. This is one of the reasons he was investigated by the SEC because of his possible influence in manipulating the stock prices. Unfortunately for him, even with the merger, the stock price has tanked and is in the penny stock range now so his actual worth over his contract is substantially lower than most media sources would have you believe.

Having said that, I believe for his it's a respect issue and he feels he's not getting it from the current top brass at Sirius/MX. Like him or not, but the fact remains that until he showed up at Sirius, they were an also ran to XM and in a very little time their subscriptions increased exponentially to the point where they leveraged a buy out of XM. Does anyone really believe that scenario would have played out without Stern coming to Sirius?

Even if you can attribute only 1/3rd of the subscribers they have now to Stern, the monthly subscription fee's more than account for his salary even if you believe the 100 million amount. He provides several hours of new and original content per day and even has teams creating specials and History's of the show for their vacation breaks. To me he's worth every penny. What has Oprah contributed to her channel other than calling in once a month for 10 minutes and playing reruns of her old TV shows. How many people subscribe to Satellite radio for the football or baseball that they brag about?

Having said all that, if he does return, it'll be for a couple year contract with options at less money and less air time. If he doesn't, I will seriously consider cancelling my sub.
 
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