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I have to respectfully disagree with most of you guys... ISPs were able to rationalize throttling P2P because it was a significant amount of traffic but it was also used only by a small fraction of their subscriber base (I recall seeing like 5 or 10% in the CRTC case notes). This is key. Video is a whole different beast. I have no stats to prove it but I'll make an educated guess and say that the majority of the ISPs users download some form of video on a daily basis.

I think we'll see ISPs adapt in a few ways:

  • Further distribution of video content. I.e., bring the video closer to the users. For example my ISP (Bell) now serves YouTube traffic directly from their network. I assume they must have some sort of deal with Google (and maybe other ISPs do it too). This doesn't reduce video consumption from a user perceptive but it does reduce WAN traffic which means savings for the ISP.
  • For live video I'm hoping to see ISPs adopt multicasting in the future (it's been around forever). This would mean that ISPs only have to carry one stream which usually gets replicated at the edge near the users. Again, no reduction from a user perspective but lots of savings on the big pipes.
  • Last but not least is usage based billing. We are talking about greedy telcos and cablecos here so worse case they'll happily carry the video traffic, beef up their infrastructure accordingly and send the bill back to the users... ;)
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