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Bold indeed.

I will make an equally bold prediction that Stela Bokun (the analyst) will be shown to be incredibly wrong. Won't have long to wait for my prediction to be shown to be correct.
 

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Based on the results of some of our informal testing WP7 just doesn't cut it on some basic functionality. Maybe the short comings will be addressed in future releases but it was a fail in our trials.
 

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And as we have learned, any idiot can make a prediction.

Its a great way to get press for your company and their is no negative impact because 3 years from now no one will remember.
 

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Discussion Starter #5
Actually we will Hugh. :) And 2013 is less than 19 months away. Sometimes for a laugh I go back into the archives and look at the predictions for the Wii.
 

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FWIW, I will predict that Windows Phone will be under 5% marketshare in two years
 

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While anything is possible I really can't see this happening. Windows phone 7 is decent but Microsoft has a lot of work to do if they want to bring the platform to parity with Android devices.
 

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I just don't see it. Windows7 just got in the game too late. And the UI in my opinion is boring.
 

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From Google I/O

There are now:
  • 100 million activated Android devices
  • 400,000 new Android devices activated every day
  • 200,000 free and paid applications available in Android Market
  • 4.5 billion applications installed from Android Market
In the 4th Quarter of 2010, Microsoft sold 2 million WP7 licences. I'd be incredibly surprised if they had sold more than 5 million phones to date.

(one analyst said in January actual sales were about 675,000! because the 2 million number was to dealers not consumers)

That would put them about 95 million units behind Android and I highly doubt anywhere near 400,000 WP7 phones are being activated everyday so can someone tell me how Windows will ever pass Android?
 

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Discussion Starter #12
At Pyramid, we forecast handsets and smartphone demand for 51 markets, and we update the models with fresh information every three months. That means that we have separate forecast models for 51 countries, and one or two regional specialists are responsible for the accuracy of assumptions and projections for the countries and regions they cover.

Rather than just covering the 15 largest markets, and subsequently extrapolating data for rest of the world, as is the case with many other research companies, our global smartphone forecast is based on such a great number of individual market models – including a large number of emerging markets, those that will actually drive much of the growth through 2015.

Finally, remember that all our handset projections tie back to our mobile market demand projections, so the forecasted numbers operate in the context of the mobile market realities. The OS-related projections are, of course, linked to our projections related to the total growth rate of the smartphone market, and the estimated market shares of the ten largest smartphone vendors.
What do they consider an emerging market?
 

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Admittedly that is a bold prediction. But in the analyst numbers game anything is possible.

Android 1.0 and the first device happened only 2.5 years ago. So much can change in 1-2 years that predictions in favor of any device or OS are useless. Consumers will ultimately decide what works and what doesn't but it is good to have choices. These devices are changing so fast that a product failure can be replaced with the 'next big thing' in just a few months.

So, the prediction could come true if they sprinkle enough fairy dust around.

Happy consumerism
 

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I think they are assuming that the Nokia WP7 handsets will just slot into where Symbian previously sat, but that's a dangerous prediction.

When Nokia starts pumping out WP7 handsets it will make a big difference though. At the moment the biggest problem for WP7 isn't the OS itself, but rather that it only runs on a small handful of devices, and almost nothing new for months now. Most carriers have 2 or 3 WP7 devices at most.
 

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Yes, a very dangerous prediction indeed. Nokia is typecast into the featurephone market, and simply replacing Symbian smartphones with WP7 in and of itself will do nothing to change their fortunes. We observe that WP7 has made no inroads to date, so simply slapping it onto Nokia hardware should not create an expectation of growth unless they have something else up their sleeve.
 

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I think they are assuming that the Nokia WP7 handsets will just slot into where Symbian previously sat, but that's a dangerous prediction.
If so it would be an extremely stupid prediction!

Nokia’s share of smartphones in Q1 2011 was 24.3%, down from 38.8% in the first quarter of 2010.

My guess is that Nokia's share is continuing to plummet.
 

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FWIW, I will predict that Windows Phone will be under 5% marketshare in two years
Really? I'd be surprised if Windows Phone is under 10% share in 2 years, especially with the Nokia deal.

Of course, I don't think any other smartphone OS will come anywhere near Android's marketshare as Android really has become the "Windows of smartphones". I see all sorts of Android promotions from various carriers where Android phones are the primary focus of advertisements, and I know quite a few of my friends and co-workers who have purchased a smartphone in 2011 chose an Android phone. Actually, many of them were previously iPhone users.

My guess is that if Microsoft executes well on software releases, they'll be able to pull even with Apple in smartphone market share, while Android will have more market share than the two of them combined!
 

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Discussion Starter #19
This prediction is looking pretty hilarious.

http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1764714

Google and Apple are the obvious winners in the smartphone ecosystem. The combined share of iOS and Android in the smartphone operating system (OS) market doubled to nearly 62 percent in the second quarter of 2011, up from just over 31 percent in the corresponding period of 2010
 

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Discussion Starter #20
Here are the Q212 updated numbers from Gartner.

http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=2120015

Android: 64.1%
iOS: 18.8%
Symbian: 5.9%
RIM: 5.2%
Bada: 2.7%
Microsoft: 2.7%
Others: 0.6%

Compare that to this threads analyst's predictions. Error in brackets.
Android: 31% (-33.1%)
iOS: 15% (-3.8%)
Symbian: 7% (+1.1%)
RIM: 12% (-6.8%)
Bada: NA
Microsoft: 30%(+27.3%)
Others: NA

I still find this funny. :D
 
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