What do they consider an emerging market?At Pyramid, we forecast handsets and smartphone demand for 51 markets, and we update the models with fresh information every three months. That means that we have separate forecast models for 51 countries, and one or two regional specialists are responsible for the accuracy of assumptions and projections for the countries and regions they cover.
Rather than just covering the 15 largest markets, and subsequently extrapolating data for rest of the world, as is the case with many other research companies, our global smartphone forecast is based on such a great number of individual market models – including a large number of emerging markets, those that will actually drive much of the growth through 2015.
Finally, remember that all our handset projections tie back to our mobile market demand projections, so the forecasted numbers operate in the context of the mobile market realities. The OS-related projections are, of course, linked to our projections related to the total growth rate of the smartphone market, and the estimated market shares of the ten largest smartphone vendors.
If so it would be an extremely stupid prediction!I think they are assuming that the Nokia WP7 handsets will just slot into where Symbian previously sat, but that's a dangerous prediction.
Really? I'd be surprised if Windows Phone is under 10% share in 2 years, especially with the Nokia deal.FWIW, I will predict that Windows Phone will be under 5% marketshare in two years
Google and Apple are the obvious winners in the smartphone ecosystem. The combined share of iOS and Android in the smartphone operating system (OS) market doubled to nearly 62 percent in the second quarter of 2011, up from just over 31 percent in the corresponding period of 2010