[hugh]

MarketNews has published a review of Fibe TV. The website cited a quick menu system, affordable packages and picture quality as Fibe TV advantages while limited availability and the inability to record two HD shows while watch a third were listed as negatives.

What shocked me in the review is that Bell is now saying its Fibe TV service is accessible to 500,000 households in Toronto and Montreal. This number seems virtually impossible to believe since most Torontonians complain its not available in their neighbourhood.

I live in Central Etobicoke which is relatively affluent and the Bell Fibe TV service is not scheduled to arrive until sometime in 2012.

I`d love to know where these 500,000 households are.

 

[Pinza]

So would one of my neighbors. He was called by Bell to tell him of Fibe TV's availability and he agreed immediately to have the service installed. Problem is, there is no Fibre within 7.5kms of his location and not even any kind of DSL for Internet.

The Technician was just as frustrated when he arrived, no installation, no pay.

I went to The Source, last weekend and when I put in his Postal Code it clearly shows Fibe TV is available, making me think it is a Database error that is making the number that inflated.

 

[Dr.Dave]

I`d love to know where these 500,000 households are.

Here's a Google map showing where some of the households in Toronto are. I haven't done a map of the Montreal locations.

Here's a Globe and Mail story from the launch in September:

The service is currently only available to 500,000 homes in both Toronto and Montreal, Mr. Crull said in an interview, adding that the goal is to reach one million homes by mid-2011.

 

[Almadacr]

Well i dont know a lot ppl in montreal with fibe and the ones that i know i "push" them to take the service the others that i m aware of it is some users of this forum so i have to say BS by Mr. Crull

 

[Dr.Dave]

Almadacr, I think you're misunderstanding the quote. It doesn't have anything to do with how many people have subscribed to Fibe TV. It was about how many homes could get it in Toronto and Montreal back in September.

 

[hugh]

I doubt there is more than 2,000,000 households in Toronto and Montreal (remember I`m talking Toronto and Montreal, not GTA and GMA) so that would be like one out of every four homes.

I simply don`t believe it

 

[DoubleC]

It's GTA, Montreal and areas surrounding Montreal. The number is the potential number of customers, not the current amount.

 

[hugh]

DoubleC, we got that. If you read post #1, its "accessible to 500,000 homes" and its Toronto and Montreal. Accessible is what, in the cable business, they would call "homes passed." Regardless, judging from Dr. Dave's map, Bell is nowhere near 500,000.

My guess is that their Fibe Internet Service may be available in 500K homes but TV, no way.

 

[DoubleC]

Toronto and gta =5.5 million people
Montreal = 1.6 million people

I didnt include the people surrounding montreal. Lets forget about them anyway and round DOWN the above total to 7 million.

Do you still think its not possible that Bells network footprint is large enough to serve only 500k out of 7 million people?

The distribution is the hardest part. The core network easier. If you can get fibe the hard part is done. Fibetv is very doable at that point.

 

[hugh]

DoubleC, I'm not going to argue with you since you don't seem to get what I am saying. Number of people is irrelevant when its households that counts.

 

[Dr.Dave]

Regardless, judging from Dr. Dave's map, Bell is nowhere near 500,000.

My guess is that their Fibe Internet Service may be available in 500K homes but TV, no way.

About half of the COs in Toronto have access to Fibe TV, although not all are fully complete. I looked at a population density map at Stats Can and the densest areas correspond to the initial rollout of Fibe TV. I would expect the household density would be even higher downtown with a high proportion of 1 and 2 person households.

I wouldn't be surprised if there are 500,000 homes with Fibe TV access just in Toronto - not counting those in Montreal.

 

[DoubleC]

When you think "home" don't just think houses. Bell targetted high density areas with plenty of apartment buildings. Keeping that in mind the 500k mentioned is easily reached.

 

[WIll_TO]

DoubleC's got it. Apartments and Condos in the downtown core of Toronto would be what really helps their numbers. My building is a mid-rise with about 100 units, so that's 100 'homes' just in one building... and it's only 11 stories. There is a building a stones throw from mine that much be 30 floors, and probably has more per floor... so there's another 500. There's another building just behind mine that would have about another 300.

So we're close to one of those 1000's right there and that's just in my building and two neighbouring buildings.... All would be about the same distance from a fibre node, so I'm sure they all are fibe-capable.

There's another 10 or so very tall (20-30 floors) buildings closeby. And don't forget about all the waterfront condos in the downtown area.

Keep in mind that in Toronto there are many more apartments with singles than you may find in the suburbs where there are families living 4-5 to a house. I would say that the ratio of units (homes) to people is much close to 1:1 then out in the burbs.

It doesn't surprise me that many areas in Etobicoke weren't launch sites, but 2012 isn't too far off at least!

 

[Pinza]

I also agree with DoubleC's thinking, it will help them achieve a "possible penetration" number, which in practice will end up being around 15 - 20% of that figure as real Customers.

The Bell TV Stacked Systems in Apartment Buildings are configured on a penetration of 10% only.

 

[Dr.Dave]

I'm surprised by that 10% penetration. MTS in Winnipeg has a market share of 34% using the same technologies as Fibe TV and Condo TV competing against Shaw Cable and the 2 satellite companies.

 

[hugh]

Random thoughts...

I don't know what the average MDU in Bell Fibe's portfolio is but assuming the average is 300 units then that would mean 1,667 buildings would be Fibe TV enabled to reach 500,000.

That's a lot of buildings. Considering that Fibe TV would likely be in newer condos and not in existing rental buildings the number seems even more incredible.

(yes I'm sure some of those 500.000 are homes but the number still seems to big to believe)

 

[WIll_TO]

Hi Hugh,

Fibe TV's availability has nothing to do with age of the building as far as I'm aware... I think it's just the distance to the fibre node; correct me if I'm wrong on this.

In any case, my building is a rental building and was built in 1960... hardly a 'newer condo'

I think the claim makes sense... I can see over 10 buildings from my balcony that are at least 15 stories, and that doesn't count the buildings I can't see because they're blocked by the ones I can. So, we're talking about a pretty tiny postage stamp of Toronto and already that's a lot of folks. I imagine that Bell has been stragically running fibre to include these very tall (20+ stories) buildings first, and I'm just lucky that my mid-rise happens to be next to many taller buildings, so I'm also close enough to fibre.

Keeping in mind that in addition to Toronto, I'm sure they're doing the same strategy in Montreal.

Food for thought:
2006 census states Toronto (city, not GTA or even Census division or Census metropolitan area) has just over 1 million private dwellings, 55.3% in apartment buildings (575,000 dwellings)

Montreal (city again, not GMA) has over 750,000 private dwellings. 70.9% in apartment buildings (558,025 dwellings).

So, just apartments in the City of Toronto and the City of Montreal total over 1.1 million... this does not take into account the many homes that I'm sure have fibe available (I've heard of many in the beaches for example) or any of the row houses, duplexs, etc.. that have the same. It also does not take into account those that are outside of the City proper that may have Fibe (some may?)

500,000 doesn't seem that odd with that in mind (of course keeping in mind that those are how many CAN have fibe, not how many subscribe).

Bell does still have a long way to catch up to the 4-million+ digital cable subscribers nationwide (actual subscribers, not 'available')