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Why?

Microsoft is offering their OS to all the hardware vendors "out there" and with Nokia, the largest hardware vendor becoming an exclusive Windows Phone partner I don't see these numbers as being unrealistic.
Because there is a very large group of consumer who simply don't think Windows Phone will be any good. They may be wrong, but perception is everything.

Nokia is losing the smartphone handset battle in a big way right now and there are no immediate signs of that changing.

Android has pretty much won the low cost / high volume market.

RIM and Apple are going to duke it out in the enterprise/image driven market.

Windows Phone will need to be either extraordinarily better than all of the above operating systems when it comes to features and user experience and/or delivered on a phone H/W platform that is extraordinarily better than anything offered by HTC/Apple/RIM to get to #2.

I just don't see either of those happening.
 
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