Global sales of Wii, PS3 and XBox through the week ending May 1, 2010. The "Observation Period" and total row is the past nine months, which isn't selected for any purpose other than I haven't compiled data further back.
Wii trending upwards in share, PS3 kinda stuck in the middle, and X360 sinking to historic lows. Microsoft is still on track to be last place in lifetime sales by the end of the year, and probably already are last place in installed base, given their quality problems.
I think because Natal is completely new it's going to require more time to cook than PS Move. If you follow gaming media you have seen that Sony has been thrusting PS Move controllers into people's hands to try whereas MS has pretty much just had staged demo's. Unless MS are really holding their cards tight to their chest I suspect E3 will be Sony showing what Move can do NOW and MS will still be showing what Natal is capable of.
I think Natal is going to make or break MS this gen. It feels like they are operating with limited resources and right now they are throwing 90% of those resources at Natal. If it bombs or if it fails to capture their rabid hardcore audience then it's Sony's win as I believe that their motion tech has much more synergy (I can't believe I used that word). Yes they are going to release some mini PS Move games just to help it get off the ground but generally speaking all current and future games can be made Move compatible because it still retains the controller and it's so very similar to the Wii that any 3rd party developer can make very easy ports. Speaking of the terrible word synergy, the 360 is the king of shooters, nobody is going to deny this. Can you see yourself playing shooters using Natal? Seems like MS is launching Natal to go after Nintendo's pie but risk losing their own fans in the process as Sony has been on it's game for the past 12 months or so.
I think the only thing Natal has going for it is that it is an add-on and not a completely new system, despite MS saying that it really is.
As long as Natal is used appropriately by developers, it could be okay. If Bungie suddenly decides that Halo Reach needs to have "Natal moments" in it, MS is in trouble.
As people have found out with the Wii, motion control is great for some games but not others.
Price will also play a huge part. Sony's Move sounds like it will cost close to $200 for two complete controllers and the camera. With the Wii, the controllers were part of launch and you had to have them. Two years into the PS3's life, I don't see the same "must buy" factor.
They say you need to be standing 3 meters back from the camera and have nothing in between. Needless to say MS needs to get that 3M requirement reduced or Natal may be grounded before it ever takes off. I have a dedicated HT room and I don't have 3M between my TV and couch.
That's a problem for Microsoft in my opinion. Whereas a lot of PS3 are installed in larger theatre rooms due to its Blu-Ray abilities, a lot of xboxes are in teenagers bedrooms and on secondary televisions. If they don't make the space requirement very clear they are going to have a lot of peed off customers.
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