Canada is predicted to have 30.7 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2014 according to a recent report from IE Market Research (IEMR) Corp.
If accurate, the firm's estimate would mean the number of wireless subscriptions in this country would be about 33% higher than the 23.1 million subscriptions at the end of 2009.
Incredibly, in its report, the research firm appears to ignore the possibility of new entrants in the Canadian marketplace stealing share from the big three wireless providers.
IEMR predicts Rogers Wireless, Telus Mobility and Bell Mobility will continue to have a 96% market share by the end of 2014, identical to its market share today.
At Digital Home, we believe the prediction that Canada will see a 33% increase in the number of wireless subscribers in the next five years is aggressive, however, we find it impossible to believe that Rogers, Telus and Bell will maintain such a massive share of the marketplace despite the entrance of new wireless competitors such as Wind Mobile, Public Mobile, Videotron and possibly Shaw in the coming year.
Individually, IEMR predicts that: Rogers Wireless will increase its subscriber market share from 37.2% in 2009 to 37.8% in 2014; Telus Mobility's market share will increase slightly from 28.6% in 2009 to 29.1% in 2014; Bell Mobility's share of total subscribers will decline from 30.2% in 2009 to 29.1% in 2014.
The researchers predict that by the end of 2014, Rogers Wireless will see its subscriber base increase from 8.58 million in 2009 to 11.6 million in 2014.
Also, we forecast that Bell Mobility will have 8.93 million mobile subscribers and Telus Mobility will have 8.92 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2014. As of September 30, 2009, Bell and Telus had 6.7 and 6.3 million subscribers respectively.
In another surprising prediction, the firm believes the big three wireless providers will experience an overall decrease average revenue per subscriber. This prediction is surprising considering the expected high rate of growth in Smartphones and data plans in coming years.