Canadian TV, Computing and Home Theatre Forums banner
1 - 20 of 77 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,491 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Blu-ray's hold on the plastic video disc market is slipping—the opposite of what everyone expected once HD DVD bowed out of the competition. Blu-ray's market share fell to eight percent during the week ending on September 14, according to the latest data from Nielsen VideoScan, with regular old DVD making up the other 92 percent. And with the US economy now on even shakier ground than usual, Blu-ray's chunk of the market looks likely to stay low for some time.
Not sure I totally agree with the gloom and doom tone of this article. IMO we should wait until the end of the XMAS/Thanksgiving season to make a more definite call. Also, although the US economy is weak it doesn't mean the rest the world will be as bad...

What I see is more and more in the big box stores are packages that include BD players with new HDTVs. This being said, the studios and equipment makes need to get off their a** and make the BD offer more compelling. That means exclusive incentives (new releases on BD 2 weeks before the DVD anyone?), lower prices on both players and movies and so on.

Full article here.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
10,415 Posts
I can't help but wonder what the situation would be today if Warner went the other way.

I honestly think that the PS3 has a huge roll in holding back this format. Lots of people I talk to are thinking about Blu-ray but they don't want a PS3 for whatever reason and they seem to have trouble justifying paying for a stand-alone player that's almost the price of a PS3. It's a catch 22 that is going to be extremely difficult to resolve when the only real answer is a stand-alone player that costs 1/2 the price of the least expensive PS3 model.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,564 Posts
In a sense Sony's hands are also now tied with the price of the PS3 because of Blu-Ray. They can't really drop the price of the PS3 (assuming they wanted to) because they can't afford to alienate all of their vendors by undercutting the prices of stand alone players.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,695 Posts
We are talking about disc sales. There are lots of BR "players" out there, especially with the increased bundling (player included when you buy an HDTV set). The problem is that people prefer (for the most part) to buy/rent DVDs. Earlier release dates *may* have an effect, but not additional featuers. Price drop is the only way this will change. Unless you have a large projection screen you will barely notice the difference between a good upconverter and blu-ray, assuming the source material is good to start. Although HDTV penetration may be 30-40% (higher?) the percentage of homes with either 1080p displays or 100"+ screens is much smaller than that. For the rest of us, it really doesn't make enough of a difference.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,540 Posts
I'll also point out that in our own "Deals" forum, I've seen far fewer Blu-Ray Disc deals since the format war has ended. There was no big push for sales after that point, almost as if Sony and the studios were content to sit on their victory and proudly say "we won". The lack of marketing and advertising is embarassing; the only advertisements I ever see for Blu-Ray is on the discs themselves. You know, the ones before the feature film that you can't skip over or fast forward?! We already have the disc, we know the benefits...they'd be better off placing those advertisements on regulars DVD's...educate the people who don't know anything about Blu-Ray.

It's easy to blame Blu-Ray's disappointing sales performance on the economy or other movie formats, but they really have nobody to blame but themselves.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
20 Posts
ah, blu-ray still sucks, I see...

Because the HD DVD camp would be doing anything different at this point ? Like a huge push for sales in the middle of summer, when every other thing in the world competes for it's dollar ? War's over. No one has to buy off studios anymore. And it's just not how this stuff works. How many times have we been told (and seen the figures to prove), that the biggest quarter for sales in the LAST quarter of the year...which also coincides with a lot of upcoming releases. There have been fewer 'gotta have' discs out in recent weeks, as the studios are gearing up to have their titles in prime real estate in stores for the holiday buying season. This isn't new. This happens every year. I'm pretty sure there will be a lot of players (AND discs) sold this fall/winter. And if something doesn't sell as well as analysts predict for a whole week, the sky MUST be falling.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
10,415 Posts
flickerbat, what you seem to be misunderstanding is that Blu-ray sales are down RELATIVE to DVD sales.

Blu-ray sales will certainly increase in Q4 over Q3, but so will DVD sales.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
785 Posts
Just more fear mongering. Price collusion is illegal for one, so I dont buy that. BD players are expensive to make, and other vendors arent dropping price because they just plain dont want to. They're waiting for the holiday season, when price cuts create a real buzz.

And the PS3 holding bluray back is the funniest thing ive ever heard. Pretty much everyone I know that buys bluray has a PS3. The # of people who dont want a ps3 and therefore dont get into bluray is a fraction of # of people who are only into bluray because they bought a PS3.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,243 Posts
Don't forget we already had a $199 HD-DVD player, so that hurdle was already overcome. I think HD-DVD would be doing much better than BR is right now, had the outcome been reversed.

-Mike
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,540 Posts
Pretty much everyone I know that buys bluray has a PS3
But how many people with a PS3 buy Blu-Ray discs?

In my case, I bought my PS3 as Toshiba was about to throw in the towel. Since then, I've purchased about 5 movies on Blu-Ray. I've purchased nearly 40 HD-DVD's during that same period.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,491 Posts
Discussion Starter · #11 ·
Don't forget we already had a $199 HD-DVD player, so that hurdle was already overcome. I think HD-DVD would be doing much better than BR is right now, had the outcome been reversed.

-Mike
Not really IMO. HD DVD discs were just as expensive as BD before they started giving them away when the war ended. The big advantage BD has is the 15.5M PS3's ou there. If only they would take advantage of this by offering incentives to go BD (vs DVD). Let's wait for the last quarter and see what happens. Maybe they are more clever than we think... ;)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
520 Posts
I think its nearly all based on software price.

BR sales simply won't move until disc prices fall. BR gives me a better PQ and Audio expereince. I don't really care about extras.I'm willing to pay a premium for BR. But not 50% or more for it. If I can rent a movie for $5 or $6 I'm not willing to pay $30 to own it. I'm not a collector.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,022 Posts
heh heh...same old opportunistic use of stats, i see.

Who cares what the Sep 14th number was....the week adjacent was 12%. There doesn't appear to be anything unusual or unhealthy about BD in its nascent lifecycle.

The studios understand price elasticity and will bring down the software price whenever they want to. They are charging a premium because they can get it.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,986 Posts
BR appears to me to be resting on its laurels, a position I feel they can't afford to stay in because, seriously, they don't really have that much laurels to rest on to begin with.

Any comparisons with similar growing pains the DVD format experienced is a little misleading if you start thinking about the environment in which both formats was/is emerging from. DVD's essentially had a wide open market in which to expand, and possessed clear advantages over competing products at that time. You can't really say the same thing for BR.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
10,415 Posts
The point I was trying to make earlier with my comment that PS3 was holding the format back seems to have been largely missed.

All evidence says that on average, PS3 owners own fewer Blu-ray discs than standalone player owners. The way to improve disc sales is, therefore, to sell more standalone players. But the problem with that is as I stated above - those interested in a standalone don't want a PS3 (for whatever reason) and they don't like the idea of paying almost the same price for a standalone player. They are caught in a "buy I can buy a PS3 for that price...but I don't want a PS3" cycle.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
181 Posts
Personally speaking I will never buy a PS3 to use as a blu-ray player for one primary reason... The PS3 will not work with my Harmony remote and I don't want to be bother with aftermarket fixes to make the ps3 work with IR universal remotes. My hometheatre has numerous components but only one remote is required and it's gonna stay that way.
When standalone blu-ray players drop to the $200 price range then maybe I'll consider one. Until then I'm content with DVD's and HDTV.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,115 Posts
BR sales simply won't move until disc prices fall. BR gives me a better PQ and Audio expereince. I don't really care about extras.I'm willing to pay a premium for BR. But not 50% or more for it. If I can rent a movie for $5 or $6 I'm not willing to pay $30 to own it. I'm not a collector.
To me, that sums up the vast majority of the market, which isn't being tapped in to. A lot of BD players are going to be sold this Christmas with HDTV packages and mainly serve as very good upconverters for DVDs and a few BD rentals. Getting a better selection of BD rentals and rental prices closer to regular DVDs is important to expand the market to.

I know there are a lot of BDs online at decent prices, but you have the hassle of shopping around for decent shipping rates and even finding the sites. This won't be the majority of the market.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,306 Posts
I also believe that prices need to fall in order for sales to remain / become healthier.

When you think about it, why do BD movies cost so much more than regular DVDs? The only price difference for the same movie should be based on the physical media itself. Obviously, a dual layer blank DVD is cheaper than a Blu-Ray blank.

Even online HD rentals cost more. Apple TV HD rentals cost more than SD versions of the same movie. Why? Bandwidth may have been an issue 10 years ago, but it should no longer account for a premium.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,463 Posts
When you think about it, why do BD movies cost so much more than regular DVDs?
Production costs for BD are higher for one reason.

There is more data so it takes longer to master, more space to store, etc. Not to mention the BD+ licensing fees, etc.

All of those costs are being amortized across a low volume of discs as well.

Oh that and the studios are out to make a buck while they can.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
785 Posts
engadgetHD: Blu Rays Pdm nearly doubled since HD DVD's demise

http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/09/2...-doubled-since-hd-dvds-demise/#readercomments

Packaged media sales go up and down every week depending on the titles -- as documented by our weekly VideoScan post -- but for some reason, the 13 percent drop in Blu-ray sales last week got a lot of attention. What we can't figure out is why the 30 percent increases during the two weeks before (combined) went unnoticed. It boggles the mind why so many so-called tech evangelists only pick up on the bad weeks, but either way, let's go back and take a look at the facts since HD DVD called it quits about seven months ago.
 
1 - 20 of 77 Posts
Top