2014 Predictions - Canadian TV, Computing and Home Theatre Forums

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post #1 of 37 (permalink) Old 2013-12-31, 11:44 AM Thread Starter
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2014 Predictions

Tech journalists are notoriously bad at predicting what the future holds, so I thought it might be fun to start a time capsule of what us little guys foresee. Here's 2014 the way I see it:
  1. Android share holds at 80% globally
  2. Android tablets still don't make much inroad versus iPad.
  3. Blackberry, for all and intents and purposes, fully withdraws from North America consumer market, their Devices segment is winding down.
  4. WP8 doesn't make much progress with consumers, but absorbs much of the corporate share abandoned by Blackberry, boosting them to 7%.
  5. In-car integration becomes hotly contested by Apple and Google.
  6. Samsung concedes very generous royalty payments to Apple
  7. Wearables don't materialize in a commercially successful way.
  8. 4K televisions get hyped big, but in a world where streaming is important, don't get much traction.
  9. The threatened price increases from two-year mobile contracts fail to materialize.
  10. Apple fails to impress with next gen iPhone or next gen iOS, save for some showcase apps optimised for 64 bit.
  11. NFC will get serious competition from bluetooth LE, and a payment standard fails to materialize.
  12. Kindle becomes irrelevant.
  13. PC sales will continue to decline at same rate, regardless of what Windows does.
  14. PS4 dominates XBone in console space globally and edges them out slightly in NA, but overall that market is shrinking in favour of mobile gaming and SteamOS.
  15. and finally, paid shills and analysts continue to make terrible tech forecasts!
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post #2 of 37 (permalink) Old 2013-12-31, 11:54 AM
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16. The NSA can access every net connected device you have.
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post #3 of 37 (permalink) Old 2013-12-31, 12:12 PM
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4K televisions get hyped big, but in a world where streaming is important, don't get much traction.
You have this backwards. Streaming will be the best source of 4K content with Netflix being one of the initial content providers. I'm not saying that 4K will be big in 2014 from a market share perspective - I'm saying that if streaming video wasn't widely available, there would be practically no 4K content.
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post #4 of 37 (permalink) Old 2013-12-31, 12:33 PM
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I agree with most of your predictions except I believe Android tablets will gain market share in 2014. They won't over take the iPad just yet but that day will come.
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post #5 of 37 (permalink) Old 2013-12-31, 01:59 PM
 
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Originally Posted by 99semaj View Post
Samsung concedes very generous royalty payments to Apple
Rumour has it that Samsung struck a deal with Microsoft by paying $10 per Android handset and some commitment on WP manufacturing.
Apple - from the same rumour mill - wants $30 per Android device made by Samsung.

Samsung sells between 150-200 million Android devices a year, i.e. Apple wants $5-6B per year.
If the court battles go forward the way they do now, Samsung will lose about $1B/year (to Apple) without jeopardizing their business model.

$1B vs. $5B ??
Unless something "structurally" changes, I don't see why Samsung would even consider settling for anything above $10 per device.
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post #6 of 37 (permalink) Old 2013-12-31, 05:48 PM
 
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Originally Posted by 99semaj View Post
  1. Android tablets still don't make much inroad versus iPad.
Say what? Android tablets have already surpassed iPad sales.
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post #7 of 37 (permalink) Old 2013-12-31, 05:56 PM
 
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I agree with brownstar. I think the new Galaxy note 10.1 2014 edition is quite impressive. So with that being said, I think it will be mostly Samsung and Nexus tablets that will gain in the Android tablet market.

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post #8 of 37 (permalink) Old 2013-12-31, 06:02 PM
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Quote:
Android tablets still don't make much inroad versus iPad.
They already have. Was that a resurrected 2011 prediction? Android Dominates Tablet Sales While iPad Stumbles

I predict that 2014 will last 365 days and end with a bunch of bad tech market predictions.
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post #9 of 37 (permalink) Old 2013-12-31, 07:16 PM
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Some interesting figures for the US market up to Nov 2013
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post #10 of 37 (permalink) Old 2013-12-31, 08:21 PM Thread Starter
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Folks, there's plenty of threads arguing data points one way or another; this one is about putting your predictions out there and seeing where we land on 31/12/2014 !! Personally, I own all the tech with the exception of Playbook and Xbox and I frequent many regions of the planet, so I'm truly just calling it the way I see it. Happy new year to my fellow gadget enthusiasts!
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post #11 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-01-03, 03:54 PM
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Published on Dec 27, 2013

The Device Generation is here. Watch what Canadians are expecting from their phones in the near future - from virtual butlers to communicating with pets. The 2013 Rogers Innovation Report has statistics and insights that assess Generation D and their outlook on technology for 2014 and beyond.


I was surprised to see so few posts critical of Rogers in the comments section of this video.
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post #12 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-01-03, 03:55 PM
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I predict Apple will fall hard. New iPhones fail to impress and the lucrative North America continues to abandon it for Android. Apple enters 2015 with their stock down below $300.

Reason being is that I see more and more people ditching their iPhone 5's for the Nexus 5. Even long time die hard Apple fans. And then after a while of getting used to the Nexus 5, they want to replace their iPads as well.

So I predict more Android market share in both phones and tablets. 2014 will be the beginning of a challenging time for Apple due to their mobile side.
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post #13 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-01-03, 04:01 PM
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^^^^ LOL... we've never heard that one before.
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post #14 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-01-03, 04:10 PM
 
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Originally Posted by North_of_Calgary View Post
Apple enters 2015 with their stock down below $300.
I think you are off by 18 months or so.
The long shadow of St.Jobs will last longer than that.
And the iWatch and iTV "ideas" can be played for a while yet.
What about breaking new ground with 4.7" and 5.7" handsets...
http://www.electronista.com/articles...ossible.sizes/

I believe Apple will have one more run at an all time high.
And will peak (don't know where) around the time they move into their new "spaceship" headquarters...
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post #15 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-01-03, 06:23 PM Thread Starter
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Sounds about right....after ten years on top people will shed it out of our boredom. The question is....who will replace them?

I think Microsoft has fallen from grace for the long haul, and they killed Nokia at the same time. Blackberry is dead. Google wins in the cheap/free/ad-driven category, but I don't know they got the legs to make the kind of money and cachet that Apple achieved.

The next winner might not even be on the radar yet. Reference Four's underdog thread.
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