2014 Predictions - Page 2 - Canadian TV, Computing and Home Theatre Forums

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post #16 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-01-03, 06:45 PM
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A trusted brand is like a trusted friend. Apple is a trusted brand to so many people that I think a fall from grace will take a long time. In fact, I think they're going to have a pretty good 2014, and their stock will be within ~$75 of where it is today. I just can't see AAPL getting down to the sub-$300 level unless their revenues take a serious hit. And if it did go down that far, I'd probably be first in line to buy their stock (again).

I think Apple will only do "okay" if they continue their current strategy of ignoring the low end of the market. If Apple decides to go after the low end of the market, I think they have lots of potential. My main beef with Apple was that the iPhone 5c should have been a low cost phone. A phone designed for customers who are buying their phone outright and aren't getting a major carrier subsidy. I'm not sure that color was the main thing missing from the iPhone.

I want to predict that Apple will make a much less expensive iPhone, but I think that would just be saying what I wish Apple would do rather than what Apple would actually do.

Here are some bold predictions about Windows Phone/Microsoft in 2014:

Microsoft decides to really go after Android and:
1. Makes the Windows Phone OS free to licensees
2. Continues to collect royalties from handset makers for Android phones
3. Doesn't ask for any patent royalties from handset makers for products that ship with Windows Phone
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post #17 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-01-04, 10:37 AM
 
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Talking about predictions: Mark Anderson, founder and publisher of the Strategic
News Service newsletter, does this for years and reportedly is right 80% of the time.
I do recall reading about his CarryAlong computer many years before tablets appeared...

Here are his Top-10 predictions for 2014
http://allthingsd.com/20131205/siri-...ypted-in-2014/
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...y-in-2014.html

1. Siris move to Silos (voice control on the rise).
2. Visualization Goes Mainstream (the only way to process "big data").
3. The Cheaper Factor (price rules consumer electronics).
4. Sub-$100 smartphones dominate.
5. Sub-$250 pads dominate.
6. Software Plays on a Flat Hardware Field (software is the innovation field).
7. The New Microsoft That No One Expected.
8. Micromapping arrives (mapping as a business engine).
9. The Quantified Self Goes Mainstream (better understanding of your own health).
10.Encryption Everywhere.

I like the last one...

There is some overlap with predictions from IDC, Gartner, Business News...
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post #18 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-01-04, 03:42 PM
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If 4 & 5 are right Apple will lose out big time
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post #19 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-01-04, 05:52 PM
 
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Apple has a very substantial - and just as loyal - installed base.
If they can set them (all) up on a revolving 1-2 year upgrade cycle, they won't suffer too much.
Look at their MacBooks: never more than 5% world market share but very profitable for decades.
Marketing does it: awesome, beautiful, most advanced, most innovative, blah, blah, blah... It works.

The deal between Apple and China Mobile will be a good lacmus test on their abilities to acquire new customers today.
They might have to settle for lower profit margins, but after the dust settles they will be the next IBM (that still makes money on their mainframe business)...
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post #20 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-01-04, 08:03 PM
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Very true about the marketing..........I saw a UK based commercial for the Kindle HDX, it started off looking like one for the iPad Air.....look at its beautiful screen......the Kindle HDX has a million more pixels than the iPad Air.........look at how light it is.......the Kindle HDX is 20% lighter.

Still, going to be an interesting year tech wise.
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post #21 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-01-06, 11:43 AM
 
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That "Sub-$250 pads dominate" might have to be revised
http://www.phonearena.com/news/Samsu...3-Lite_id51007

It looks like Samsung is after market share just as much as after profit margin.
And having gazillion models of everything helps to avoid cannibalization...
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post #22 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-01-07, 11:30 AM
 
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Gartner's 2014/2015 predictions for the post-PC era
http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2645115

By 2015 Android OS will power every second phone/tablet/desktop/laptop/etc. sold...
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post #23 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-01-10, 10:48 AM
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Difficult to say where all this is going, but I do feel we're now slipping into a technological lull. The iPad was pretty much the last major consumer electronics breakthrough we've had. Everything being made now is just a minor point upgrade of the last device, or in some cases a product downgrade such as the iPhone 5 de-evolving into the iPhone 5C.

Here are my predictions for 2014, partially based on past events, and on what I've seen coming out of the CES.

- Apple will continue its downward spiral into a non-innovative black hole.

- Android will continue to improve in the software department, but will not create anything significantly new.

- GoogleTV will die completely. At least I hope it does! What a piece of crap!

- Windows 8 will continue to be the most widely distributed and most hated PC based OS. Expect to see some hoarding of Windows 7 licenses.

- 3D TV will vanish for another 10 years (thankfully). 3D printers however will grow in popularity, mainly in the production of sex toys at home.

- Smart watches will continue to try and find their place in the market. It's still a solution in search of a problem.

- Phones and tablets will reach a saturation point where new devices are purchased only to replace broken devices out of warranty.

- 4K will only become significant for content producers and camera manufacturers where working with higher resolution masters ensures your 1080p broadcast material will look simply stunning. GoPro could make a killing here.

- The market for self-driving cars will crash as fast as the cars themselves.

- Electric cars will continue to be an overpriced niche product for as long as it still takes 12 hours to "fill up the tank."
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post #24 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-02-14, 04:02 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by four View Post
$1B vs. $5B ??
Unless something "structurally" changes, I don't see why Samsung would even consider settling for anything above $10 per device.
The next episode of this soap opera is on its way
http://www.phonearena.com/news/Secre...ill-on_id52649
http://www.electronista.com/articles....end.of.march/
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post #25 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-02-22, 12:22 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 99semaj View Post
Samsung concedes very generous royalty payments to Apple.
Maybe next year...
http://www.engadget.com/2014/02/22/a...rial-in-march/

By the time the infringement case of the Galaxy S3 gets underway, the Galaxy S5 will be on sale. Two generations behind.
Why bother. If really needed to fill the void, release an S5 mini (what they did with S4 mini replacing banned S2).
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post #26 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-03-06, 10:42 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by four View Post
By the time the infringement case of the Galaxy S3 gets underway, the Galaxy S5 will be on sale. Two generations behind.
So, the first "installment" of the epic battle arrived at its quasi-end.
Assuming Samsung doesn't appeal (very unlikely), it is more like $1B loss every two years. Plus, $100M to the lawyers.
http://www.phonearena.com/news/Judge...nction_id53562

And no injunction!
It looks like Koh didn't quite like the "Cry me a river" number Apple performed at the White House.
That resulted in Obama's veto on the ban of some Apple products.
http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/...-iphones-ipads

So, "No injunction for you!" is the judge's game plan...

Considering how far Android has come, this $1B loss looks like worst case scenario (for Samsung).
It should be business as usual...
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post #27 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-03-06, 03:39 PM Thread Starter
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The injunction would have been practically worthless at this point....the legal process is far longer than the product life cycle!

I don't believe Samsung has any grounds to appeal, since they admitted guilt. That admission also implies they must simply pay royalties going forward, thus avoiding legal challenges.
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post #28 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-03-06, 07:58 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 99semaj View Post
I don't believe Samsung has any grounds to appeal, since they admitted guilt. That admission also implies they must simply pay royalties going forward...
RE:appeal
For better or for worse, real (legal) life isn't that simple...

RE: royalties.
Apple wants more than Samsung is ready to give. So they are back in court...
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post #29 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-03-06, 08:55 PM Thread Starter
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Well, since they are not standards-essential, FRAND doesn't apply and Apple can charge whatever they want, and the courts don't have a say.
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post #30 of 37 (permalink) Old 2014-03-06, 10:48 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 99semaj View Post
...Apple can charge whatever they want, and the courts don't have a say.

Of course they can... ask.
The question is - will they get it?
Thankfully, Apple's private police force can't help here...
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