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post #1 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 03:16 AM Thread Starter
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Question The Future Of Nokia?

Anyone want to guess on the future of Nokia after the complete and utter disaster that the Microsoft Windows Phone-based Lumia line has been?



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post #2 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 07:32 AM
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They bet the farm on Microsoft mobile. That alone means that they failed the management fitness test, and they deserve to fail.

But will they fail? I think it will take a long time, but they will fade slowly. Of course, the one wildcard here is Windows Phone 8. I am cautiously optimistic that this might be the first decent product to come out of Microsoft in a decade. The only question, is whether or not Microsoft has even a shred of reputation left to allow this product make it in the marketplace.
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post #3 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 07:59 AM
 
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If they were going to fail, it would have happened a long time ago, and should have happened after the failure of the N-Gage. The fact is, they make an excellent device and if they fail, it won't be because of microsoft or sybian. How has Microsoft's involvement been a disaster? It's not like Nokia decided to step away from android to concentrate on wp7/8.

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post #4 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 08:31 AM
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complete and utter disaster
Now its just a disaster. When they go out of business or get bought out (which I suspect they will in the next 12 to 18 months) then it will be complete.

My two cents, Nokia was bleeding market share before WP came along suggesting the really big mistakes were made between 2006 and 2010.



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post #5 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 11:14 AM Thread Starter
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The Myth

Nokia was not bleeding any market share prior to Elop's arrival from Microsoft and his subsequent conversion of the company to a Windows Phone maker. The complete and utter disaster is all his doing:

http://communities-dominate.blogs.co...3174241970d-pi

The blue line shows that Nokia's smartphone unit alone had just reported a Nokia-record profit and on an annualized basis would bring Nokia's profits into the Fortune Global 100. That's before adding additional profits from Nokia's other mobile phone units. Elop, Microsoft, and Windows Phone ruined it all.

The graph comes from Tomi Ahonen's blog.




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post #6 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 12:19 PM
 
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As per the Nokia (Canada) web site, out of eight available smartphones the Lumia 610/710/800/900 are windows phones. The other four are Symbian phones - so at least in this country, Nokia is not a purely Windows phone manufacturer.

Prior to Elop's hiring*, have you or anyone else even considered getting a Nokia as smartphone? It's not like they were a major smartphone player before either. At least not here.

So what's left? Fire Elop and dissolve the MS relationship to go full steam with Symbian? Drop Symbian and start making Android phones just to go head to head with Samsung and HTC?

I'm attaching a chart with some trending. Nokia was massive before Samsung and iPhone exploded.

*I'm not an Elop apologist by the way.


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post #7 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 12:59 PM
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Personally, I think Nokia and RIM should team up with Microsoft and give Windows 8 a try.

I doubt it will happen since there seems to be plenty of stubborn heads.
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post #8 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 01:02 PM
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Originally Posted by stampeder View Post
The blue line shows that Nokia's smartphone unit alone had just reported a Nokia-record profit and on an annualized basis would bring Nokia's profits into the Fortune Global 100.
But do you really believe that without any changes, they would have kept on climbing? That consumers would still be buying Symbian devices in record numbers? RIM was once making record profits and selling record numbers of devices, but they failed to see what so many of us outsiders saw; their OS wouldn't hold up against Android and iOS and they needed to adjust for the future market.

Nokia tried to do what RIM failed at. They recognized that Symbian couldn't compete long term (and there's no question that they were right). They could have gone with their own solution (Meego) like RIM is attempting, but I don't see any real reason to believe they would have achieved substantially more success that way. They could have transitioned to Android, and become another hardware player in a very, very crowded Android market, and while that might have been the safer bet, the potential ceiling as another Android OEM was much lower than the potential ceiling of the premier WP7 OEM was.

I don't know that WP7 was the best bet, but I certainly don't see any others that were obviously better. Personally, I probably would have tried to work on multiple platforms (build phones for WP7, Android, and Meego) but I don't know if Nokia was even in a position to try that. I think anything was better than just riding it out with Symbian though.

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Originally Posted by 99semaj View Post
Of course, the one wildcard here is Windows Phone 8. I am cautiously optimistic that this might be the first decent product to come out of Microsoft in a decade.
I'm going to go ahead and assume you mean the first decent product to come out of Microsoft Mobile in a decade. Even still, WP7/7.5 was generally critically well received. On its own merit, it is a pretty good platform. The fact that it never grabbed much market share was partially due to its significantly delayed arrival, and partly due to the difficulties of cracking the smartphone OS market these days.

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post #9 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 01:32 PM
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Quote:
Nokia was not bleeding any market share prior to Elop's arrival from Microsoft and his subsequent conversion of the company to a Windows Phone maker. The complete and utter disaster is all his doing:
Market Share was bleeding well before Elop arrived. Nokia announced the all Windows Phone in Q1 2011.

from wikipedia


In addition, the following is a typical quote from a Reuters Article when Elop was hired

Quote:
"They have had problems for a long time and have been behind the curve on trends for the past few years. I think it could be good to get new influences, thoughts and ideas," said Inge Heydorn, fund manager at Sentat Asset Management.

When Elop announced the changed, I said

Quote:
The reality is that Nokia is bleeding badly. The Smartphone market has taken off and they are down and out.

It was Android or WP. Nokia considered Android and rejected it as being me too.

Not sure Nokia had much of a choice.
I said "bleeding badly" back then because that was what Gartner and all the research firms were reporting in their market share stats.

To say that Nokia wasn't dropping like crazy when Elop came in is simply not true.



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post #10 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 01:50 PM
 
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ive played with the current nokias and they are sexy phones.

i mean for 50 bucks they are a STEAL when it comes to what they can do.

if windows phone had all the features of android id be interested especially with windows 8 coming out.

the integration looks like it will be good to keep nokia alive.

I dought they will ever regain market champ though no matter what they did.
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post #11 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 03:38 PM
 
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To answer the "Future of Nokia" question -- I will come at from a pure "investment" standpoint.

The same can be said of RIMM at the present time (imo).

Right now, it does not matter how good any of their products are -- the market (equity market) is saying that both companies are going to be "restructured". This may involve a buyout, merger, patent sale after Chapter 7 or 11 (Chapter 15 Cross border BK after Creditor Protection).

If you follow the market, you know that niether the SEC nor IROC in Canada care about the "little investor".

Illegal Naked Shorts and CDS (credit default swaps) by many of our fine banking instituations have predicted the outcomes long ago.

Go look at "fails to deliver". (www.failstodeliver.com). On a daily basis every legitimate regulatory rule is being broken. And the little guy investor for either NOK or RIMM is being had.

Simply put, the market is telling you that neither company (in the short-term) is going to produce a viable product. And both companies are going to be re-structured.

The market is telling you to stay away at all costs.
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post #12 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 03:40 PM
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i haven't used a Nokia phone in ages, but I can definitely say I have never owned a "bad one". They have always been rock solid performers.
i.e. radio/phone first, fluff second.
I do hope they can remain competitive, for no other reason than to keep everyone else honest.

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post #13 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 04:18 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hugh
Market Share was bleeding well before Elop arrived.
(Voice of Yosemite Sam) Whoa, whoa... WHOA!!! That chart of yours has some glaring problems as relates to Nokia:
  1. It is only about OS market share, so while you see Symbian on there you do not see Nokia. Why? Because in fact Symbian was used far and wide by mobile phone manufacturers for many years until the royalty-free Android came along, at which point the sensible companies stopped paying for Symbian. See how their curves mirror each other almost perfectly, Symbian down, Android up? This left just Nokia and I think NTT DoCoMo as about the only Symbian users. Thus, that chart is not revealing about Nokia's financial health.
  2. The chart I posted is about corporate market share based on profit, using Elop's own numbers and those of Apple and Samsung, and it shows in graphic detail just how positive things were prior to Elop's arrival and how dreadful the Microsoft link has been for Nokia since he dropped the "burning platform" nuke.
  3. All arguments about Nokia's financial health must be based on the complete, global entity and it's various mobile phone product lines and markets, so even while Nokia was enjoying good profits from their smartphone line they were also doing just great in their other mobile lines. I suspect that some of the analysts you and others cite might not have been doing that. While Nokia had almost the whole world sewn up we all know that Nokia's presence in the U.S. market was poor. Not that it mattered much because the potential U.S. market didn't hold a candle to the huge international market numbers that were being seen and projected.
Like most myths this one about Nokia bleeding market share prior to Elop's arrival will probably never die.



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post #14 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 04:29 PM
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Like most myths this one about Nokia bleeding market share prior to Elop's arrival will probably never die.
Well, do you have any evidence to suggest this was not the case? Everyone knew that Nokia needed to move away from Symbian because it isn't a modern OS in the context of iOS/Android/Windows Phone 7. Heck, even RIM's Blackberry OS was technically ahead of Symbian.

Building your own software platform is very difficult if you don't have much lead time, so Nokia needed to pick some other software to use/license. Windows Phone 7 allows Nokia differentiate themselves in many positive ways when compared Android and iOS (and, yes, negative ways too) - but in their view that was much better than picking Android.

If Nokia had picked Android, Android would have likely become even more dominant than it is already, and then Nokia would certainly be "just another Android vendor", of which there are dozens. At least with Windows Phone Nokia phones are less of a commodity.
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post #15 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 04:34 PM Thread Starter
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so Nokia needed to pick some other software to use/license
Nokia, prior to Elop, did not need to pick any OS. It had Symbian, which was not the problematic OS that some folks seem to imply as it was being greatly improved by the QT toolkit. Nokia had Maemo, it's proven Linux platform, for small form factor computers. Nokia had Meego, which it was co-developing with Intel to eventually augment and replace Symbian on smartphones, and which now lives on as Samsung's Tizen. Nokia had Meltemi, which was a Linux OS for dumbphones that would replace the S40 OS. Everything was fine, and the products kept improving as did Nokia's profits. The idea of Nokia paying another company whopping royalties on each phone was and is absurd.

Nokia did not need Microsoft and did not need Windows Phone OS. The dismal state of Nokia today is all the proof that we need.



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