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post #61 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-19, 02:37 PM
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Originally Posted by stampeder View Post
Now Nokia has squandered all that.
Could you give us your version of how that happened? I know that Elop did it, I just wonder how you and Tomi think he rose to power?
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post #62 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-19, 02:42 PM
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Actually, Stampeder ... I didn't say that. I said what Colin says I said, which is the assumption that they would have been fine staying the course is flawed.

Second, read my post again ... I said I think RIM can succeed. I think QNX based BB10 will be a very strong product which may reignite consumer optimism for the brand. It equally may not. Nokia's shipped had already sailed ... there was no indication of large scale consumer adoption of their proprietary platforms against the backdrop of the marketplace at the time the decision was made. You are assuming, at a minimum, a flat line in terms of unit sales for Nokia without a move to WP. That's where I believe your whole argument is flawed.
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post #63 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-20, 12:54 AM Thread Starter
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JohnnyCanuck, I think I could have been more diplomatic - I was honestly asking your opinion without prejudice.

I am of the opinion that anything Nokia would have done on it's own would have easily and abundantly been healthier for the company than the financial nuke that is Microsoft / Elop / Windows Phone. Nobody (check all the analysts you like from the pre-Elop days) predicted the plummeting drop to junk status that has occurred with Lumia had Nokia stayed with it's own products. Nobody, because it was unthinkable.

I'm also of the opinion that an enormous opportunity for Nokia to make it's own way has been given away like the baby thrown out with the bath water.

Will WP8 be successful? I hope so for the sake of Nokia. Is it any less than a gamble than if Nokia had kept on going on it's own way? Of course not. Given the cost to Nokia, it is a much worse gamble since not much of pre-Elop Nokia has been allowed to exist.

Hugh earlier posted the names of a few companies from the past who fell on bad endings, but he missed SGI (Silicon Graphics), which was a UNIX-based OS and app vendor that had Hollywood and much of the early commercial Internet sown up with it's IRIX software and wonderful hardware. Rick Belluzzo was a Microsoft insider through his job at HP where he did everything he could to undermine the bulletproof HP-UX and PA-RISC platform in favour of NT 4.0 on x86 (he thankfully failed) then left to take over SGI with the purpose of porting all their world-leading graphical software over to Windows NT 4.0 and DirectX from IRIX and GL. It also was an abject failure, SGI tanked to a mere shadow of itself, and Belluzzo returned "home" to Microsoft afterwards with a plumb executive position for his good work destroying what was a great company. Thankfully OpenGL and the magnificent XFS file system have survived from SGI for the benefit of free and open source software.

I see the SGI scenario playing out again in this case with Elop and Nokia. That's how Microsoft rolls, and they'll possibly end up with the massive Nokia patent portfolio for their efforts.




Last edited by stampeder; 2012-07-20 at 01:23 AM.
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post #64 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-20, 01:05 PM
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“Nokia’s problem is that the Symbian operating system, the platform on which Nokia phones run, is a generation behind the iPhone and Android smartphone operating systems,” Wolf writes. “With Nokia’s heritage in low cost, volume manufacturing, not software development, it’s unlikely the company will ever catch up with the companies that are redefining this market.”
May 13, 2010

Quote:
Nick Jones of Gartner published a brief research note on his blog that paints a bleak picture of Symbian. According to Jones, Symbian is still the dominant platform, but it is losing market share at an accelerating pace as rivals like Android and iOS continue their upward trend. Jones is equally bearish regarding the future of Symbian and points to a product roadmap that is filled with features like audio policy packages, WiFi direct, and other similar additions that are of little interest to consumers.
July 12, 2010

Quote:
Ignoring Nokia's increasingly irrelevant feature-phone platforms, the software platform story is, to be charitable, a bit of a mess.
Does anyone really think Symbian still has the ability to challenge iOS and Android? Nokia will be making lots of noise this week about the new version, Symbian^3, but that's a just stop-gap until ^4 is ready next year.
Symbian^4 looks very much like it's too little, too late. I also can't help thinking that moving to the Qt user interface framework is like applying the proverbial lipstick to a pig.
September 13, 2010

And while not an analyst:
Quote:
Well, we can't sugar-coat this one -- when a major Nokia / Symbian site like Symbian-Guru decides to close up shop "thanks to Nokia's consistently piss-poor hardware choices and Symbian's lack of ability to even remotely compete in terms of features," there's not much else to say.
July 1, 2010

Analysts were consistently not optimistic about Symbian (or, to a lesser extent Meego) in the run up to the WP7 announcement. Symbian was already losing ground quickly to Android back then.

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That's how Microsoft rolls, and they'll possibly end up with the massive Nokia patent portfolio for their efforts.
That's incredibly unfair. Both companies entered a strategic partnership which both desperately needed to work out. The fact that it hasn't so far has been a huge net loss for Microsoft as well. To suggest that Microsoft ruins other companies as a way of doing business is patently false.

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post #65 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-20, 11:20 PM Thread Starter
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As I claimed, nobody was predicting that Nokia would sink to the awful depths of junk stock values had they continued with Symbian and it's eventual replacement by Meego. Nobody. The present state of finances is a disaster, and Elop caused it.
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To suggest that Microsoft ruins other companies as a way of doing business is patently false.
I'm speechless.



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post #66 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-21, 12:53 AM
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I totally disagree - Colin posted some examples and I know many others who were saying the same thing that Symbian was never going to make it. The board of Nokia certainly thought that they were in desperate times which is why Elop was hired in the first place, and Elop's "burning platform" letter indicates that he obviously thought that Symbian was a dead end.

Thy decided to throw in their lot with MS. It hasn't worked yet and it may not work but I personally think that they had to try it. If they had tried to go it alone I belive they would be in the same case as RIM is today and I give them a better chance to survive than RIM. They have close to twice the market cap of RIM.

Last edited by TorontoColin; 2012-07-21 at 12:59 AM. Reason: UQR
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post #67 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-21, 12:59 AM
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The commentary of the third analyst I quoted was entitled his "Nokia's death march". Sure, he didn't explicitly say Nokia stock was going to tank, but I think that's just arguing semantics. There were many, many analysts in 2010 who were predicting doom for Nokia. Things were not seen as rosy in the slightest prior to the WP7 announcement.

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post #68 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-21, 01:30 PM
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I think Stampeder is living in a reality distortion field regarding his views on Nokia's smartphone operating system assets prior to 2010.

Nokia's existing Symbian platform was way behind the times, and their prospective (Linux-based) platforms had very little forward momentum, and they certainly didn't have a developer ecosystem that is nearly as active as the Microsoft developer ecosystem.
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post #69 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-21, 05:58 PM
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When I bought my Nokia 6500 Slide in London back in 2008, even I thought the Symbian OS seemed very much out of date. And the iPhone was already out for over a year. You'd think Nokia would have seen the light that far back and taken the phone OS issue a bit more seriously.

And this is what's so annoying about Nokia. There's popular joke that goes: if you drop an iPhone, you break the glass. If you drop a Nokia, you break the floor. Nokia has successfully built extremely strong phones over the years, even amongst their cheap bargain handsets. But by siting on the Symbian OS for so long, Nokia allowed the competition to surpass them in a very short amount of time (and lock in the patents), filling a deep void in the features department to the point where Nokia simply can't catch up anymore even with Microsoft's help, which was already a bad decision since Microsoft engineers only know how to design Windows style desktop interfaces and very little else.

Regrettably, Nokia is a dying company. It had its moment in time for a while, but like many other companies, they got lazy or lost focus on the prize, and completely blew it. Maybe it's time to simply sell off its assets.
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post #70 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-21, 06:10 PM Thread Starter
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Ironically when the very, very first rumours of Apple getting into the mobile game started to emerge (years before there were any press rumours) there was serious consideration within Nokia of buying Apple, lock, stock, and barrel.



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post #71 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-21, 09:18 PM
 
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I follow this company from a pure investment standpoint. The shares jumped because the loss was not as bad as expected. Then , the shares fell again because people realized that at current "cash burn" rates NOK only has about 9 months (maximum) left before they are BK.

The market says that they are pretty close to insolvent now -- simply because if the shares trade below $1.00 for over 30 days, trading restrictions kick-in and NOK may be forced to do a reverse split to keep above $1.00. If not, it goes to the OTC market.

Which means new naked shorts enter the market and drive the price down even futher. The death spiral.

I hold no shares and no debt, but I could write a Credit Default Swap against the company. That's the way fraud street works.

The bottom line is the company needs to increase its net cash flow (somehow), if it is to survive. In the short-term, they appear to be paying pretty good severance packages.
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post #72 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-22, 12:49 AM
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Thats what happens when you sell your soul to the Devil ... Aka go public.
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post #73 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-22, 12:58 AM
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The other things hurting Nokia is that people are very unlikely to buy a Windows Phone right now when they now that it won't run Windows 8. Why not wait a few months until you can get a WP8 phone in October or so.? This is also stunting sales of iPhones since everyone expects the iPhone 5 in Sep and BBs with BB10 coming in early 2013.
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post #74 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-23, 01:25 PM
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Originally Posted by stampeder View Post
I see the SGI scenario playing out again in this case with Elop and Nokia. That's how Microsoft rolls, and they'll possibly end up with the massive Nokia patent portfolio for their efforts.
So, the purpose of the conspiracy was to destroy Nokia and snatch their patent portfolio?
And, in order to do that, Microsoft is deliberately sabotaging its own mobile OS, so that its lagging sales can drive Nokia into the ground?
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post #75 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-27, 02:15 AM Thread Starter
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Nokia Receives Another Downgrade From Moody’s

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Wolfgang Draack, Moody’s Senior Vice President and lead analyst for Nokia, said, according to Reuters, “A return to profitability in the Devices & Services segment on the back of smartphones with the Windows Phone 8 mobile operating systems is by no means assured.”

Draack added that with its latest cut by the agency, it “reflects our view that Nokia’s transition in the smartphone business will cause deeper operating losses and consequently, cash consumption in the coming quarters than we had previously assumed.”
http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/07/nok...e-from-moodys/

"...by no means assured..." So, that cancellation of Meltemi, the Linux-based featurephone/dumphone OS that was supposed to replace S40 in a market that Nokia controls more than 20% of worldwide and that was turning a profit (yes, the aged S40, fer crepes suzette!) looks even dumber than ever. All Elop and his cadre can see is Windows 8, and it is troubling that all three of the world's rating agencies think that it is iffy at best.
Quote:
Nokia is sending a clear message that Windows Phone is its Plan A, B and C for all market levels
http://www.phonenews.com/reuters-nok...tiative-20792/

Tunnel vision and target fixation are negative states that cause terrible occurrences on our highways. They obviously do the same on the markets.
Quote:
The agency keep its negative outlook on the company; its shares subsequently dropped in the market, approaching a sixteen-year low.
Thanks Elop for wrecking Nokia.



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