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post #16 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 04:54 PM
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Originally Posted by TorontoColin View Post
I'm going to go ahead and assume you mean the first decent product to come out of Microsoft Mobile in a decade.
Strictly in the interest of keeping this thread on topic, we can assume that.

Perhaps a good strategy for Nokia would be to focus on the commodity low-end market for feature phones. Let Apple and Google have this generation for high-end smart phones, and let BlackBerry languish in the middle with their (not quite Feature, not quite smART) phones. At least that way they could preserve cash flow until such time that they can compete in the high-end.

Last edited by TorontoColin; 2012-07-16 at 05:29 PM. Reason: removed inflammatory comment
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post #17 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 05:31 PM
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stampeder, forget about this Tomi Ahonen guy and his blog. He was fired from Nokia long time ago for a reason. Everybody else in the world is saying that Symbian sucked, sucks, was and is a dead end. The other Nokia OS experiments might have succeeded, if iOS was released in 2017, instead of 2007.
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post #18 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 05:32 PM
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Originally Posted by stampeder
Nokia did not need Microsoft and did not need Windows Phone OS. The dismal state of Nokia today is all the proof that we need.
What does that prove, precisely? It doesn't prove that Nokia had better options available with their own software stack.

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Originally Posted by stampeder
It had Symbian, which was not the problematic OS that some folks seem to imply as it was being greatly improved by the QT toolkit.
This does not align with the impressions of Symbian from the tech press, and it doesn't align with my experiences trying out a Symbian handset. Symbian was way behind the technology in iOS, and Nokia needed to make a major change.

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Originally Posted by stampeder
Nokia had Maemo, it's proven Linux platform, for small form factor computers.
Interesting. I've had conversations with a friend of mine who worked on Maemo in 2010-2011 (he previously worked at Canonical), and from what he told me, Maemo was a mess and pointed to its security implementation as something that was overly complex (poorly designed), and said that the entire project lacked momentum.

But I'll ask anyway: what about Maemo was "proven"? For a product that never really made it to market, it is anything but proven. When one says that a software product is "proven", that typically means that it has been battle tested and is a known quantity. For instance, Windows (the desktop OS) is "proven" and Linux/UNIX/Windows servers are "proven". Lots of people use them every day, and they perform the task well.

An example of something that isn't proven is Android on tablets. Google is looking to change that with their Nexus 7.

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Originally Posted by stampeder
Everything was fine, and the products kept improving as did Nokia's profits.
Profits are not what you'd call a leading indicator of trouble. When a financial quarter of profits are reported you're looking at the past.
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post #19 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 05:59 PM
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Nokia, prior to Elop, did not need to pick any OS. It had Symbian, which was not the problematic OS that some folks seem to imply as it was being greatly improved by the QT toolkit. Nokia had Maemo, it's proven Linux platform, for small form factor computers. Nokia had Meego, which it was co-developing with Intel to eventually augment and replace Symbian on smartphones, and which now lives on as Samsung's Tizen. Nokia had Meltemi, which was a Linux OS for dumbphones that would replace the S40 OS.
Symbian was on its way out, and needed to be replaced quickly. Sony Ericsson, for example, didn't abandon Symbian just because Android was free, they abandoned it because Android was better and more popular. If Symbian had been worth supporting, SE could have continued producing devices for both OS. Clearly, from their point of view, there was no business case for staying with Symbian.

As far as I know, Nokia released Maemo on just two devices, neither of which were significant commercial successes, before transitioning Maemo to Meego (via the merge with Moblin) well before the Microsoft partnership.

Meego looked very promising, but it had two huge flaws. First of all, it wasn't ready. Nokia could have waited, but then they might have ended up like RIM; losing market share while they wait for a saviour that might come too late. Second of all, there was no established ecosystem or community, and no guarantee that Symbian users would adopt the platform. No matter how good it was, there was no guarantee anyone would buy it. Just look at WebOS; a fantastic product that just couldn't crack the marketplace. WP7 wasn't huge, but at least the OS was ready to go and had somewhat of an established developer and supporter community.

I don't see what's stopping them from continuing with dumbphones and Meltemi, except that the dumbphone market is shrinking fast and it will be very difficult to continue turning a profit there.

I saw them as having three options. They could wait for Meego, choose Android, or choose WP7. For all the disaster WP7 seems to have brought, Meego was just as risky and could have been far worse. Android might have been a safer bet, but they would have a hard time dethroning Samsung as the lead Android OEM and would likely be mired with HTC, LG, Motorola, and Sony in the middle ranks of Android OEMs.

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post #20 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 09:13 PM Thread Starter
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Thumbs up Who is Tomi Ahonen? Read and watch...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arthur Dent
stampeder, forget about this Tomi Ahonen guy and his blog
That's the funniest thing I've read in a long time!

Forbes 3 January 2012: "Who are the top 10 power influencers in mobile? Number 1 belongs to ex-Nokia executive Tomi Ahonen, whose blog Communities-Dominate.blogs.com is a fixture on the mobile scene, largely because of Ahonen's comprehensive knowledge of the mobile ecosystem."
Quote:
Tomi T Ahonen - Author, Consultant and Motivational Speaker - Author of twelve bestselling books on mobile, already
into multiple printings and translated into several languages, Tomi's books and theories are quoted in over 120 published
books by his peers. The former Nokia executive lectures at short courses at Oxford University and is regularly quoted in
the press in over 400 articles published in over two dozen languages on all six inhabited continents. Tomi is often seen on
TV talking about mobile and digital trends and has been seen at over 250 conferences on over 80 cities in over 50 countries
and attended by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people. His reference list includes most major tech companies in the
Fortune 500 including Axiata, BT, China Mobile, Google, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Intel, LG, Motorola, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo,
Orange, RIM, SK Telecom, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Tigo and Vodafone, etc.
He is an exceptionally intelligent, well informed analyst and has a terrific sense of humour too. Check this out:



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swvRYB76Y1I

So Arthur Dent you want me to forget about him and the books of his I've read over the years as part of my career and the time he spoke to us at our site and the videos I've watched. Presumably that is because you dislike his message? I simply cannot debate anything about the mobile phone industry with you if you would go so far as to completely reject such an elite analyst.

Here is the link to his blog, and I highly, highly recommend that anyone who seriously wants to discuss the mobile phone industry should spend a few days in there: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/




Last edited by stampeder; 2012-07-17 at 02:03 AM. Reason: replace incrorrect citation of audacity with Arthur Dent
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post #21 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 09:29 PM Thread Starter
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Nokia's Plan B OSes

Symbian with the QT toolkit was suitable to carry Nokia until the following options were ready for prime time, so if Plan B (ditching the Plan A Lumia burning platform) comes to pass there are options to Android:

Maemo was available commercially on several devices sold mostly in Europe and quickly developed a cult following, especially with the forever-in-prototype N900. It was ready for prime time, my friends, and I use it every day on my N900.

Meego was also ready for prime time, so when it hit the market it won awards over iOS and Android. It is Samsung's ace-in-the-hole now in case any issues with Android should arise for them.

Meltemi was 2 months away from release when it was cancelled by Elop. 2 months! It was for dumbphones, and it was excellent.

Nokia did not need Microsoft or Windows Phone, and despite what people say in disagreement with my assessment the reality of the situation speaks for itself - Microsoft, Stephen Elop, and Windows Phone have been a disaster for Nokia and it is as plain as day.



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post #22 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 09:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stampeder
So audacity you want me to forget about him and the books of his I've read over the years as part of my career and the time he spoke to us at our site and the videos I've watched. Presumably that is because you dislike his message? I simply cannot debate anything about the mobile phone industry with you if you would go so far as to completely reject such an elite analyst.
I think you mean Arthur Dent. But go ahead and blame me for someone else's post. Please, go ahead.

But I'd be much more interested in your posts if you actually come up with a good rebuttal of the points I made. Specifically:

1. Nokia's home-grown OSes were either ageing poorly, or not ready to take over.

2. Nokia's Maemo/Meego work was not "proven", and I'm curious what your definition of proven is - it certainly isn't what most people consider "proven" to be. Those operating systems were only on fringe devices and were never widly available. I don't think a single N9 was even sold commercially in America (North or South).

3. When a financial quarter of profits are reported you're looking at the past. Your attempt to use it as a leading indicator to say that Nokia was a-ok before Elop came in was looking at historical data and claiming the future was great!
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post #23 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-16, 10:18 PM
 
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Symbian is dying and cult followings mean zero to a corporation. Nokia can either jump into the fray with Android and try to compete with Samsung or stick with Microsoft and make a go with the Windows Phone o/s.

There is nothing else.

I like the Lumia with WP7. For a single core processor it's amazingly smooth and polished.

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post #24 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-17, 01:16 AM
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Maemo was available commercially on several devices sold mostly in Europe and quickly developed a cult following, especially with the forever-in-prototype N900. It was ready for prime time, my friends, and I use it every day on my N900.
Unless I've missed one, there were only two Maemo devices ever released by Nokia; the N900 and the N9. Neither experienced significant commercial success, and the decision to merge Maemo into what would become Meego was made long before Elop took over because the previous Nokia administration believed it couldn't compete.

This part is purely subjective, but in my experience Maemo was well beyond anything the average user was going to embrace. People sometimes complain that Android is too complicated and "techy" for the average person. Maemo, in my opinion, made Android look like a child's plaything.

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Meego was also ready for prime time, so when it hit the market it won awards over iOS and Android. It is Samsung's ace-in-the-hole now in case any issues with Android should arise for them.
Meego was not ready when the decision was made to partner with Microsoft. Nokia wasn't sure what the final OS would look like, and they had no hardware ready to run it. Waiting for Meego would have set them back months for a platform that might have been far worse. Even given the critical success it achieved; critical success does not necessarily translate to commercial success (just look at WebOS). There are other factors at play here.

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Meltemi was 2 months away from release when it was cancelled by Elop. 2 months! It was for dumbphones, and it was excellent.
Two things with dumbphones. First, almost nobody who buys dumbphones actually cares how good the OS is (or they would be buying smartphones). Second, the market and profit margins for dumbphones are shrinking rapidly. That's a dying business.

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Microsoft, Stephen Elop, and Windows Phone have been a disaster for Nokia and it is as plain as day.
That may be true, but as far as I'm concerned Nokia was heading for disaster before Elop and Microsoft entered the picture.

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post #25 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-17, 01:52 AM Thread Starter
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Unless I've missed one, there were only two Maemo devices ever released by Nokia; the N900 and the N9
You missed a couple of very popular Internet tablets along the way, but hey, they were European only. As for being released, Maemo was. Also it actually can be brought to bear as part of a Plan B if necessary, which was my point. Facts are facts.



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post #26 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-17, 01:54 AM Thread Starter
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I think you mean Arthur Dent.
And I apologize profusely, audacity, for my error. I do not wish to make any of this discussion personal so I am clarifying that right now. I went back and edited that post with my super moderator powers and I am sorry.



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post #27 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-17, 01:56 AM Thread Starter
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Nokia's future is doomed unless Elop/Microsoft are ditched

I'm seeing a few people here slagging Nokia's pre-Microsoft products based on... um... beats me... maybe what "tech journalists" might have said???? Maybe Gartner, Forrester, etc. etc.... Who knows? Where exactly is this coming from? If the answer is "well everyone obviously knows it" then that's not good enough. If the answer is truly "because my Microsoft evangelist told me" then say hello to my old friends for me... I miss our long discussions over beers way back when... (see my Linkedin friends)

Facts are facts, and when you see with your own eyes the profit chart based on data released under Elop's watch it is abundantly clear that Nokia was doing great beforehand and was subsequently wrecked. Heads must roll.
Quote:
Meego was not ready when the decision was made to partner with Microsoft.
Wow, the award-winning N9 Meego phones were just a dream? The Nokia phones that allowed Nokia devotees to do everything they were used to doing but with such a great interface that it was voted better than Android and iPhone? Elop has refused to let the N9 be sold commonly, but sure enough they took the N9's outward appearance and made the latest Lumias look like that.

I also want to deal with the misguided notion that Windows Phone is/was somehow more "ready" than any of the in-house Nokia OSes I've mentioned. There are so many things that the in-House OSes can do that Windows Phone cannot that it is laughable. Further, the field failure rate of the non-Nokia-built Lumia phones is higher than anything Nokia has ever produced on it's own. It is an embarrassment.

Want to know why lifelong Nokia devotees won't touch a Lumia phone with a ten foot pole? Because it ruins everything they used to do. Sales of Lumia amongst those people are almost nil, which you can see for yourself.

Move on folks, the show's over, nothing left to see here, no contest between Nokia's own OSes and Microsoft Windows Phone, which is driving Nokia to it's destruction.
Quote:
Second, the market and profit margins for dumbphones are shrinking rapidly. That's a dying business.
Nokia has made and could continue to make huge profits in that market segment. Here in North America there is a certain hubris that seems to make analysts blind to the obvious because it is not happening in their own back yard. Nokia had a hammer lock on dumbphones (an increasing international market for which Nokia's expenses to fill the market have been very low for high profit) and Elop killed it. Dead. No Windows Phone can ever operate in the dumbphone marketplace, so now Elop has totally given away Nokia's tried and true profit centre. Did you know that in many developing countries that have little or no land line system per se a mobile phone is actually called a Nokia in common parlance? Elop kissed all that goodbye. These are markets involving the majority of the people on this planet and he killed it. People in those markets have neither the money nor the interest in smartphones - they want their trusty, reliable Nokia, and each time they buy one Nokia chalked up a profit for relatively little cost. That's how you make a profit in almost any situation. Under Elop it is clear that Nokia cannot make a profit under any circumstances.
Quote:
That may be true, but as far as I'm concerned Nokia was heading for disaster before Elop and Microsoft entered the picture.
Against sober analysis of the evidence, it would seem.




Last edited by stampeder; 2012-07-17 at 02:57 AM.
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post #28 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-17, 11:27 AM
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Stampeder, I don't see how his engineering and writing career is any relevant to the fact that he is blatantly wrong about the Nokia strategy. It happens even to the greatest minds. If Steve Jobs had been removed from Apple in 2004, thus having the spare time Tomi enjoyed, he probably would have written blogs enough to fill a city library (the way Tomi has) about how iTunes should be for Mac OS only, that third party apps should not be allowed on the iPhone, and other epic misjudgements he made. But he had the right instinct that helped him correct his views. Tomi has none of that. Opinionated and bitter to infinity. On top of that he is an engineer. Like Steve Wozniak, and we know what vision he had about the Apple 1 computer. Good engineers are priceless, but in their domain only. The more talanted they are, the more likely they are to miss the humour in a sentence of the type: "Grandma, it's easy - you just need to fix the metadata and zip the jpegs before emailing them".
Anyway, my point is that even if Tomi had saved a ship full of children from sinking, Symbian still would have sucked and would have had no future.
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post #29 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-17, 01:55 PM
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Originally Posted by stampeder View Post
I'm seeing a few people here slagging Nokia's pre-Microsoft products based on... um... beats me...
Personally, from my experience using Symbian (on a Nokia 5230) and, briefly, Maemo on an N900. I have no experience with Meego, though I've heard good things, or Meltemi, on which I have no opinion of the OS itself.

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Originally Posted by stampeder View Post
under Elop's watch it is abundantly clear that Nokia was doing great beforehand and was subsequently wrecked.
I don't think anyone is arguing that they were doing poorly before. Rather, that it was extremely unlikely that they could maintain their success continuing with Symbian for much longer.

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Wow, the award-winning N9 Meego phones were just a dream?
I could be wrong on my timeline. To be perfectly honest I never followed Meego too closely, as it never seemed likely to reach North America. However (if I remember correctly), the Microsoft partnership was announced in February of last year, while the N9 didn't make it to market until September or October, 8 or 9 months later, and around the same time as the first Lumia devices. It wasn't even announced until June of 2011, four months after the Microsoft partnership was announced.

Thus, when the decision to partner with Microsoft was made, Meego was not yet ready. Without being able to actually see the OS in action, Nokia's executives couldn't have known how good it would be. They could have waited, but there was no guarantee Meego would have been ready to ship on devices by the end of 2011, and there was no guarantee it would have been well received. Had they waited, they might have ended up like RIM, constantly missing deadlines on a product with no guarantees it would be better than Windows Phone, while losing their supporters to Android and iOS.

Again, I'm not saying that waiting on Meego wasn't a viable option. I'm just saying that it wasn't without substantial risk. Now that we know what Meego is and we've see how the Lumia devices sell, Meego looks a lot better. But we (and Nokia) didn't have that information in February of 2011. It wasn't nearly as evident back then.

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I also want to deal with the misguided notion that Windows Phone is/was somehow more "ready" than any of the in-house Nokia OSes I've mentioned. There are so many things that the in-House OSes can do that Windows Phone cannot that it is laughable.
Are these things that the average consumer would make use of? People like you and I represent a very, very small section of the market Nokia needs to capture. The average consumer wants things simple and straightforward.

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Nokia had a hammer lock on dumbphones
With sub-$100 (outright) Android phones and a rapidly growing demand for smartphone use (even in developing nations) how much longer do you think that's going to last? It's a dying market, in my opinion.

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post #30 of 94 (permalink) Old 2012-07-17, 01:58 PM
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Opinionated and bitter to infinity.
Are you talking about Tomi or Steve Jobs? Because that sounds a lot like Jobs too, but he was still a pretty smart guy.

I disagree with Tomi regarding Symbian, but that doesn't mean he doesn't know his stuff.

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