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post #1 of 1156 (permalink) Old 2011-12-16, 03:12 AM Thread Starter
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The Future of BlackBerry

Some unfortunate news was revealed for those BlackBerry addicts who've waited patiently for a QNX-based smartphone from RIM. The company's co-CEO, Mike Lazaridis, reports that, due to a critical chipset that's not expected to be available in production quantity until mid-next year, we're unlikely to see a BlackBerry 10 device emerge until late in 2012.

The news keeps getting worse and worse. People are already doubting that BlackBerry 10 would help RIM even if a device was released tomorrow, and now that they won't be out for a year, I don't see how RIM can succeed. Too many failures and too little successes as of late.

Sad to see them fall like this.

Last edited by hugh; 2011-12-16 at 08:48 AM. Reason: Separated into its own thread
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post #2 of 1156 (permalink) Old 2011-12-16, 08:38 AM
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Sadly, after reading yesterday's news, I have to think that RIM is done. When you think about where we have come in the last year in smartphones and tablets, it's inconceivable how RIM could fall for another year and then expect to come back.

RIM's quarterly profit dropped sharply and it expects holiday sales to be so poor that it forecasts its first quarter-to-quarter decline in six years during the crucial holiday sales season.

My guess is unit sales will decline in 2012 and margins continue to erode. RIM has such a large base in the Enterprise that I suspect it will be sometime before it will be out of business but the writing appears to be on the wall.

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post #3 of 1156 (permalink) Old 2011-12-16, 08:43 AM
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All that they can come up with is increasing promotional activities. More marketing. More advertising. This oddly reminds me of this old commercial...

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post #4 of 1156 (permalink) Old 2011-12-16, 08:52 AM
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Hard to say what will happen to RIM.

If they can keep their market share in the 15-20% range then with some restructuring they should be able to do just fine.

If they drop below 15% then it will be much harder for them and they will need to re-brand as a niche device and structure the company appropriately, i.e. much smaller.

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post #5 of 1156 (permalink) Old 2011-12-16, 07:17 PM
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If making 265 million is a horrific quarter, I think most Canadian companies would love to do this badly.
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post #6 of 1156 (permalink) Old 2011-12-16, 07:41 PM
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I'm not an IT guy, but I get the feeling IT departments probably don't like all the Android devices getting free run these days and Apple devices are.....too different. Maybe there still is a market for a business oriented device, but someone needs to come up with it soon and RIM better get their butts in gear.

Best thing I can say about Blackberries for people like my wife and my boss at work...thank goodness they just work. These are people that just want to be connected to the office when they're out. No frills. With my Android phone I have to run one app to only turn on bluetooth when I'm in my car, or to turn off wifi if I'm not home or at the office....these are to save battery. Most people can't be bothered will all this.
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post #7 of 1156 (permalink) Old 2011-12-16, 11:17 PM
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Originally Posted by james99 View Post
If making 265 million is a horrific quarter, I think most Canadian companies would love to do this badly.
That is quite short sighted considering the trend. So RIM doesn't need to change a thing?

Interestingly enough, I have my iPod Touch connected to my employer's Wifi network and I find it a much better device than my BB Curve 9300. When I'm in the office, the BB is thrown in a drawer. Someone sent me a snapshot via email yesterday and I couldn't look at it on the BB. It was too small. On the iPod, at least I could easily zoom in and pan.
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post #8 of 1156 (permalink) Old 2011-12-16, 11:35 PM
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Getting a Palm Pilot feel about RIM. Hope I'm wrong. If they make it, it will be from the strong corporate support, where systems aren't changed every few months to have the latest bling.

Looking like they will need a Wii kind of hit. Still a great deal of goodwill and fondness in the name. Even people who are using other smartphones and have left RIM seem to be disappointed and nostalgic and aren't negative.

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post #9 of 1156 (permalink) Old 2011-12-17, 12:39 AM
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Pundits have been predicting the demise of RIM since 1999. And now that there's finally a stable and popular competing smartphone, they're predicting RIM's demise yet again.

When the iPhone was introduced, RIM sales increased. Apple made the "smartphone" cool.

All I can say is that RIM is very likely here stay, despite this "bump in the road".

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Last edited by Jase88; 2011-12-17 at 01:09 AM.
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post #10 of 1156 (permalink) Old 2011-12-17, 02:02 AM
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RIM is done.

In relation to their market share, they haven't been able to hold the interest of developers. This is in contrast with Windows Phone 7 which has very little market share, but is punching well above its weight in developer mindshare.

Their operating system is decidedly last-generation and stinks of Java. Transitioning to a modern OS is apparently going to take RIM a long time - longer than they have.

Personally, I think that given RIMs current level of execution, the company may soon be worth more in parts than as a whole company.
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post #11 of 1156 (permalink) Old 2011-12-17, 10:23 AM
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i think RIM will survive but their main market will be enterprise mobile email solutions. Their decision to allow Android and iPhone/Pads to connect to their email systems will please many enterprise clients and help fend off the advances if Google and apple in that arena.
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post #12 of 1156 (permalink) Old 2011-12-17, 11:56 AM
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Time for short selling RIM
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post #13 of 1156 (permalink) Old 2011-12-17, 01:18 PM
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Ah, a sure sign to buy then. As soon as you see a stock recommendation on a forum, it is time to do the opposite. You wait for a stock to crash from $150 down to $14, and then you suggest to sell short?
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post #14 of 1156 (permalink) Old 2011-12-17, 03:03 PM
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Short selling I think is a bad idea because at its current value there is a good chance that RIM could be purchased by another company for patents and customers.
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post #15 of 1156 (permalink) Old 2011-12-17, 04:42 PM
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Let's not get too carried away with the demise of RIMM. It is profitable company with little or no debt. Their P/E ratio is about 3 compared to peer ratio P/E ratio of nearly 45. The stock is being hit due to expectations vs reality in terms of market share, mostly in U.S. I am no analyst or a broker, but be very carful shorting this stock at this time. This is not going to zero.

Disclosure: I have no position in this stock, but I may consider going long on it, but not short. Shorts are about a year too late.
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