Five reasons Android has peaked - Canadian TV, Computing and Home Theatre Forums

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post #1 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-24, 12:46 PM Thread Starter
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Five reasons Android has peaked

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Here are five reasons why the end of the Google Android heyday is nigh

5) Hewlett-Packard's Palm OS
4) Nokia
3) Microsoft Windows Phone 7
2) RIM Blackberry 6
1) A Verizon iPhone
One of the stupidest articles published on the GLobe and Mail website.

Personally I think Android and iPhone will continue to steal market share from Nokia and RIM. I think you can stick a fork in MS Windows Phone 7, too little too late.



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post #2 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-24, 01:53 PM
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Not stupid at all. The Android OS drew the spotlight with its gigantic market share increases mostly because it started from zero a couple of years ago, was pushed by the seemingly almighty Google, and it was to be either fast growth or death. It turned out to be the former, but the saturation point, where the competition will push back, has been reached. 800% market increase is not even mathematically possible anymore.
But all this talk about the share of certain OS (or platform) in the smartphone market is more of a cheerleading internet competition. The actual players and their weight is not anything like what it looks like at first sight. The Google Android project, even with the acquired market share, hardly brings any profit to the company. A recent analysis in Fortune magazine ("Is Google Over?") points out that out of the multitude of projects, Google still lives mainly on advertising revenue through its web searching engine. Everything else accounts for a minority of their revenue, and much less of their profit. Android was singled out as one of those very hyped venues that bring little to no joy to shareholders. Google are more and more turning into the good old one-trick pony called Microsoft.
Anyway, not to go off topic, Android by itself is not profitable. It is obviously a sponsored by Google project that is supposed to increase the reach of their advertising in the mobile space. For now the winners are mostly the hardware manufacturers - LG, Samsung HTC, etc., which make the phones powered by Android. The same will be true for the Windows 7 platform - Microsoft will be doing the Android thing that Google did, and they will surely gain some market share, if the same manufacturers embrace them. In the end both platforms will hardly bring any true profit to their sponsors, so it is not impossible that they might be abandoned, or remain a niche market, or branch into OS-s of the respective manufacturers.
Nokia, Apple, and Blackberry, on the other side, are different beasts - they have the whole cake and eat it too. Nokia got dragged a little behind by their blind faith in hardware over everything else, but they are coming back online. RIM retreats, but don't seem to be giving away easily their traditional highly profitable core business. Apple seems to turn into gold and sell at jewelry prices everything they touch, and the mountains of cash will surely help in their search of new big hits. And, very importantly, third party developers are getting a lot of that cash, and won't abandon them.
Back to our friendly trash talk , I agree with the article that the Verizon iPhone will be the Android killer.
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post #3 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-24, 03:03 PM
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Android has just started... now that hardware is there 1000mhz cpu's and climbing and and ever improving OS, that updates when its ready.(iphone 5 might be the next time apple puts out an improved OS?)

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post #4 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-24, 03:46 PM
 
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post #5 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-24, 04:12 PM
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Hilman, these numbers are what the article and our commentaries are based on - in case you are posting them to educate us that Android has gained market share this year. In case you are making some other point that I didn't understand, disregard this post.
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post #6 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-24, 04:46 PM
 
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I dont agree with the G&M piece at all.

Android is still growing strongly, especially in the US given the iPhone exclusivity with AT&T which now looks to be actually hindering Apple's sales rather than helping. Sprint and Verizon are leaning heavy on Android for smart phone sales. In Canada its a mixed bag given there is no platform exclusvity, and with strong patriotic ties to RIM. RIM isnt going anywhere, given how IT chiefs love its security options. It will be hard for them to keep their regular consumer happy though. People want apps and iOS and Android have them.

HP will fill a decent niche with Palm but they will have trouble if they are the only maker using the OS for phones. HP has said they bought Palm for the OS, and not just for the phone application. The OS is well suited for being integrated into printers and other web connected devices.

Nokia and WM7 are late to the party, but come with heavy money. Mobile is the next age of the internet and its still very very young.
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post #7 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-24, 05:26 PM
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Personally I think Google's biggest problem may be themselves. Many of the best features of Android are available on other platforms because Google makes them for other platforms. Google apps for the iPhone and Blackberry take away from the market power of Android.

All of the things listed in that article have the potential to slow Android's momentum, but I don't think any of them could stop it. A year ago today there were just as many potential obstacles in the way and yet Android continued to flourish. Heck, one year ago we were already talking about Nokia and RIM and the potential for a Verizon iPhone.
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post #8 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-24, 05:39 PM
 
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Arthur, I just was illustrating how massive the Android OS has become and to show how close they are to RIM sales. Android is starting to change the marketplace and provides an option for people that do not like/want an Apple or RIM product and WM7 will never catch up due to their own lack of development. I think Android will pass RIM in the next quarter or two and will become number 2 on the list whilst Symbian will remain at number 1 (but will lose a little market share to Android). Obviously Android will not have the same explosive growth but it will still grow and by that definition it has not peaked as this thread has stated.
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post #9 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-24, 06:24 PM
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Hilman,

First, the only thing these stats show, are the sales during quarter 2 of 2010, compared to the sales in quarter 2 of 2009. It does not mean that 17% of the current smartphones run Android OS - the majority of smartphones bought before Q2 2010 (over 99% of them non-Android) are still in use.
Second, these numbers show that the current sales of Android phones have increased to some decent share from the very small figure a year and a half ago. All kind of growth from a very small share will most likely look impressive.
Third - these numbers say that in Q2 of 2010 Samsung, LG, Motorola, HTC and others combined managed to sell a total of 10,606,100 of Android smartphones, in the form of many old and new, but always the best, models, while Apple sold 8,743,000 units of the one year old iPhone 3GS. The first conclusion that can be made, is that Apple are doing much better than any other smartphone manufacturer, and that wasn't (and still isn't) their core business. Where will Android take more market share from? Certainly not Apple. Another recent poll among Verizon subscribers, the biggest seller of Android handsets, shows that 52% are willing to jump to iPhone if it's available on Verizon. Granted, not all of them are currently using Android handsets, but it doesn't look like a potential increase of the Android share will occur as a result.
The interesting stats will be for Q3 2010, which will reflect worldwide iPhone4 numbers, as well as Q4, when W7 will be released.
BTW, what do you mean by "W7 own lack of development"? If anything Microsoft seem to be very serious about this particular aspect, and the potential gaming platform integration with the XBOX360 looks more lucrative and promising than more free open source apps from the Android App store.
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post #10 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-24, 06:33 PM
 
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I guess we will have to wait and see.
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post #11 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-24, 07:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arthur Dent View Post
First, the only thing these stats show, are the sales during quarter 2 of 2010, compared to the sales in quarter 2 of 2009. It does not mean that 17% of the current smartphones run Android OS - the majority of smartphones bought before Q2 2010 (over 99% of them non-Android) are still in use.
Second, these numbers show that the current sales of Android phones have increased to some decent share from the very small figure a year and a half ago. All kind of growth from a very small share will most likely look impressive.
What the numbers show is that Android has grown from a fringe OS to a big player in the market. They won't likely sustain that growth but there is a lot of momentum.

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Originally Posted by Arthur Dent View Post
Third - these numbers say that in Q2 of 2010 Samsung, LG, Motorola, HTC and others combined managed to sell a total of 10,606,100 of Android smartphones, in the form of many old and new, but always the best, models, while Apple sold 8,743,000 units of the one year old iPhone 3GS. The first conclusion that can be made, is that Apple are doing much better than any other smartphone manufacturer, and that wasn't (and still isn't) their core business. Where will Android take more market share from? Certainly not Apple.
The strength of Android is that these manufacturers will continue to put out new best models month after month. While the iPhone risks getting stale with only yearly refreshes, Android has new top models on a very regular basis. On top of that there are plenty of mid-range models for those who don't want or can't afford the latest and greatest. Android has been taking market share from everyone and there's no reason why that wouldn't continue, particularly with iPhone 4 shortages.

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Originally Posted by Arthur Dent View Post
Another recent poll among Verizon subscribers, the biggest seller of Android handsets, shows that 52% are willing to jump to iPhone if it's available on Verizon. Granted, not all of them are currently using Android handsets, but it doesn't look like a potential increase of the Android share will occur as a result.
The interesting stats will be for Q3 2010, which will reflect worldwide iPhone4 numbers, as well as Q4, when W7 will be released.
What will interest me most is total yearly statistics, because those will reflect a full yearly cycle. However you seem to be turning this into an Android vs iPhone discussion, which wasn't the point. This is meant to be about what will stop Android. A Verizon iPhone as the major stumbling block doesn't account for markets like Europe where Android continues to sell despite wide availability of the iPhone.
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post #12 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-24, 07:23 PM
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T-dot-o-Collin: You make a very good point about androids ability to stay fresh. The OS as we have seen keeps moving forward. Thanks to hardware that allows improvements people that started out on 1.6 are now able to run 2.1 and 2.2... The fact that the OS works on such a wide variety of models gives us alot of flexibility in what we buy. Some people just hate not having a keyboard. Some dont want a big 4"screens. Some cant afford the high end. Right now you can get what ever you want in an android phone. Small and compact-check. keyboard-check, bleeding edge power-check.

ITs almost like a mac vs a pc! without the bluescreen of death!

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post #13 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-24, 08:40 PM
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First, Android hasn't come close to peaking yet. The google mobile OS will most certainly be the Next Big Thing.

Second, any writer who thinks WP7 is newsworthy simply isn't sophisticated in the mobile industry. Even epic clown Ballmer is downplaying its significance.

Third, RIM is getting tired, and shows no signs of a revolutionary turnaround. Maybe I'll change my mind when OS6 comes out for my 9700.

Fourth, putting good software like WebOS into the hands of HP (notorious for bad hardware) doesn't make for much of a threat.

Lastly, we are still months away from Verizon getting their LTE network up in any sizable way, so Android still has lots of time to grow before iPhone starts selling into that market. The only thing that might cause it to come earlier might be an SVDO version that takes some of the stink off CDMA.
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post #14 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-24, 11:46 PM
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Some of us will eat crow next year. Let's bookmark this thread for future reference!
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post #15 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-25, 10:08 PM
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hehe i picked my side:


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