Five reasons Android has peaked - Page 3 - Canadian TV, Computing and Home Theatre Forums

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post #31 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-27, 12:50 AM
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So I think it will keep bridging that gap and becoming more friendly for non-techies and at a cheaper price so I only see Androids popularity continuing to rise and iPhone's decline for the next 6 months at least.
The fact that people here can't actually bet money on their predictions is making this thread pointless and its signal to noise ratio close to zero. I'm willing to bet a lot of money against the last part of this statement, but I suspect the author is just exercizing his typing.
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post #32 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-27, 01:29 AM
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But like I've posted before, I find the iPhone very frustrating to use. It seems so basic, limited, and almost dumbed down. It's great for non-technical people because it's simple. But for more advanced users it's so limited. Sync (email/calendar/contacts) is so far inferior on the iPhone.
Care to elaborate? My iPhone basically has the same syncing functionality to our Exchange Server that my Blackberry did.
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post #33 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-27, 01:32 AM
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The fact that people here can't actually bet money on their predictions is making this thread pointless and its signal to noise ratio close to zero. I'm willing to bet a lot of money against the last part of this statement, but I suspect the author is just exercizing his typing.
Why exactly do you say that? So far Android has been growing in popularity and more high-end Android devices are on the way. Meanwhile we're seeing a strong backlash against Apple for the first time (Flash, iPhone 4 signal issues, etc). While I don't doubt that they will sell many iPhone 4s and iPads, I see no reason for Android sales to slow in the near future, especially with devices like the Droid X, Droid 2, Vibrant, Captivate, Desire (North American version), and Epic 4G all launching in the past 2 months, and the Droid 2 World Edition, G2, and Fascinate all appearing imminent there's no shortage of Android choice. None of these has to sell as well as the iPhone, but if each sells equivalent to just 11% of iPhone sales that would match the iPhone right there, without including the many mid-range Android devices.

By the way, popularity does not equate to market share. Popularity can decline without losing market share, at least short-term.
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post #34 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-27, 04:31 AM
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I think the key in determining who rakes in the most marketshare will be how well each manufacturer continues to innovate. It's one thing to come out with something new and impressive, but if you sit on that foundation for too long only making minor improvements, it'll leave the door wide open for a competitor to shake things up. It happened with the iPhone, it happened with Android, and it is bound to happen again.

I'm not saying you have to completely overhaul your interface (like Microsoft and their upcoming "hub" interface for Windows Phone 7), but Apple and Google need to make sure to keep trying to push the envelope in terms of what their devices can do. They need only to look to RIM and the dated BlackBerry OS, or Palm before WebOS to see what happens when you stand still.

If there's one thing I've learned about predicting tech-related things, it's that it is very hard to do so. Cellular technology in particular has changed a lot in 5-10 years, and I don't see the pace slowing down anytime soon. To put it into perspective, 10 years ago I had a Sanyo SCP-4000 phone. It made calls, it might have been able to text, but it really didn't do a whole lot more. If you wanted a multifunction phone, you could look at the Nokia Communicator clamshells (the N900s of their time - big, bulky, but powerful).
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post #35 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-27, 07:48 AM
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are android's sales being helped by the fact that nobody can get an iphone 4?
Some people, myself included, choose not to fall for the Apple hype. I don't like to buy anything from a company run by a control freak.
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post #36 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-27, 09:41 AM
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That control freak's vision is why Apple has been able to introduce four revolutionary products (Mac, iPod, iPhone, iPad). If you don't have a strong leader at the top that can force the company to have one vision then you end up with messes like Microsoft's mobile strategy.
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post #37 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-27, 10:30 AM
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TorontoColin, I am only willing to place a bet against "iPhone's decline for the next 6 months at least" part of the statement. The part about Android continuing to grow - that is debatable, and my expectation is that it might see some more increase of market share in the immediate future - while HTC, LG, Samsung and Motorola simply have no other OS to put on their smartphones - and customers who walk in stores, can't buy an iPhone or W7 device yet. It is safe to say though, that the glory days of this system are now, and it has or will peak in popularity in the next 6 or so months - pretty much in line with the statement of the article that started the thread.
As for the "backlash" that you are seeing - I personally only see lineups in front of Apple stores for now, and sellout in minutes when deliveries arrive elsewhere. Maybe you need to tell me where to look for it. It's the kind of "backlash" that other companies can only see in their dreams.
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post #38 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-27, 11:01 AM
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Some people, myself included, choose not to fall for the Apple hype. I don't like to buy anything from a company run by a control freak.
This reminds me of statements like "I dreamed of a BMW, but the dealer was so rude, so I went with an Audi". Every time I hear it (or something like that), I think "Hopefully now your committed relationship with the nice Audi dealer is all you had hoped for."
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post #39 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-27, 11:42 AM
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That control freak's vision
I don't have a problem with vision. I do have a problem with a phone that prevents you from changing the battery. This limits how long you can go without charging and also puts your phone out of service when the battery has to be replaced. Then we get to the iPhone/iPad apps, where Apple seems to excercise arbitrary control over what apps are available to users. As for MS, the leader did have a vision of owning the computer software market, which caused him to use illegal and near illegal means to eliminate competition. As for technical vision, yeah, he sucks.
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post #40 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-27, 01:54 PM
 
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TorontoColin, I am only willing to place a bet against "iPhone's decline for the next 6 months at least" part of the statement. The part about Android continuing to grow - that is debatable, and my expectation is that it might see some more increase of market share in the immediate future - while HTC, LG, Samsung and Motorola simply have no other OS to put on their smartphones - and customers who walk in stores, can't buy an iPhone or W7 device yet. It is safe to say though, that the glory days of this system are now, and it has or will peak in popularity in the next 6 or so months - pretty much in line with the statement of the article that started the thread.
I don't see the iPhone declining in the next 6 months, I see the whole Smartphone market continuing its explosion in this timeframe. Everyone I know is moving to a smartphone from their old "just make calls and text" dumbphones.

As for Android peaking, can't see it. The 2.2 update is just starting its major roll out for many top Android phones. 3.0 update for capable phones is just on the horizon. Android phones with 1.3-1.5 ghz (with possible dual core) processors are going to be here by Christmas. No peaking yet, it's just getting started.

As for other os', there is Windows mobile that LG has used before (so some might use W7) and Samsung has its own Bada system now that I tried out with the Samsung Wave at BB the other day and it's not too bad. So there are other os' that these companies can use other than Android, it's just that Android is the better choice right now.
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As for the "backlash" that you are seeing - I personally only see lineups in front of Apple stores for now, and sellout in minutes when deliveries arrive elsewhere. Maybe you need to tell me where to look for it. It's the kind of "backlash" that other companies can only see in their dreams.
Line up for Vibrant...http://mobilesyrup.com/2010/08/06/sa...-this-morning/

From Derat in the HTC Desire thread, "Anyone know when the Telus web store is going to have these in stock again... its been a week at least... They launch the best phone they have ever carried, it destroys what the competition can offer and they are out of stock *cry*"

tech junkie, but recently it's been junkie tech
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post #41 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-27, 02:16 PM
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Care to elaborate? My iPhone basically has the same syncing functionality to our Exchange Server that my Blackberry did.
Sure. First of all, when I was using the iPhone 6 months ago, only 1 Exchange Sync was possible with the iPhoneOS 3.X. That was a big limitation for me since I connect to 4 business mailboxes and 1 personal one from my phone. And while iOS4 resolves that issue, it still is pretty bad using the ActiveSync/Exchange protocol for non-Exchange mailboxes such as Gmail. Specifically it fails to download and constantly gets out of sync. I had to switch to IMAP which is more reliable.

When it comes to the actual mail tool, my two primary business mail accounts are Google Apps so the searching, grouping, and labeling of emails is far better and looks way nicer in the Android app. And it's really easy to color code, manage, and switch between different mailboxes, calendars, and contacts from the various Exchange and Google mailboxes. And of course the grouping into a mail thread is great on Android - I personally don't like how it does it on iPhone (i.e. sent messages are not included in the group).

Finally, the notification options are so limited on the iPhone. You must notice that as a big difference from your BB. With Android I can customize it all I want.

So for my business needs, Android is easier to use and more flexible.

iPhone is still a great device. If you're big into multimedia (iPod functions), games, needing some specific applications that aren't on other platforms, or aren't a very technical person then it's a great choice.

But for business purposes or if you're a big personal or business user of Google services (particularly if you're a Google Apps customer), or if you're more technically inclined and like to customize/tweak these things a lot, then Android probably makes more sense.
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post #42 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-27, 02:37 PM
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The fact that people here can't actually bet money on their predictions is making this thread pointless and its signal to noise ratio close to zero. I'm willing to bet a lot of money against the last part of this statement, but I suspect the author is just exercizing his typing.
Arthur, look at the title of this sub-forum - it has the word "discussion" in it. And look at what you quoted from me: the first two word were "I think". So you saying that the thread is pointless because people saying what they think in the scope of a discussion without betting is making you look rediculous!

Back to the topic: restating what I've said before on DHC, compared to their recent years it's been a pretty bad quarter for Apple: the lost iPhone prototype, botched presentation, the questionable emails from Steve, iOS4 problems on the 3G, more activation problems at launch, supply issue, delays with the white ones, and the whole antennagate. Meanwhile it's been almost the opposite for Android.

I run my own technology company and going back to Q1 (actually shift that back by about 1 month to be 100% accurate) almost all of our new devices were iPhone. Q2 saw zero new iPhones and 2/3 of the staff switch to Android devices. That's thanks to the new devices that came on the market this spring. iPhone populatity and interest amoung my technical people is definitely way way down.

So I still think the momentum is in Android's favour and probably will be for the next 6 months at least. Sure Apple sales may be up, but not at the growth rate of Android's. Especially since Android devices are constantly innovating - I think the annual cycle will start to hurt Apple.

Ok, done "exercising my typing" Arthur
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post #43 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-27, 04:18 PM
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Arthur, look at the title of this sub-forum - it has the word "discussion" in it. And look at what you quoted from me: the first two word were "I think". So you saying that the thread is pointless because people saying what they think in the scope of a discussion without betting is making you look rediculous!
Call it what you want, I'd still like to bet you on the "iPhone's decline for the next 6 months at least" prediction.

Quote:
Back to the topic: restating what I've said before on DHC, compared to their recent years it's been a pretty bad quarter for Apple: the lost iPhone prototype, botched presentation, the questionable emails from Steve, iOS4 problems on the 3G, more activation problems at launch, supply issue, delays with the white ones, and the whole antennagate. Meanwhile it's been almost the opposite for Android.
Not a single thing from this long list has affected the sales of iPhone 4 even the slightest bit. These are not problems. It's web buzz, brought by the high profile of the topic, and fueled by the traffic that every story about Apple generates.
Also, I'm sure that every Android phone is flawless, that's why the media are not buzzing about their problems.

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Apple sales may be up, but not at the growth rate of Android's.
As I already mentioned, the growth rates of Android from the last year are not even mathematically possible anymore. The Q2 2010 to Q2 2011 percentage increase of the sales will be way, way down from 800%, and that's the easiest prediction I can make. Also, not so easy, but I will venture to say, that for the rest of the year iPhone's growth rate will be higher than Android's, but no one wants to take my money.
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post #44 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-27, 04:39 PM
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From Derat in the HTC Desire thread, "Anyone know when the Telus web store is going to have these in stock again... its been a week at least... They launch the best phone they have ever carried, it destroys what the competition can offer and they are out of stock *cry*"
At least the salespeople at the store were not weasels and did not try to say something like "We are out of stock, but why don't you take a look at this wonderful new phone by Apple, called iPhone 4, which is also a wonderful device, and you can take one home right away!"
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post #45 of 77 (permalink) Old 2010-08-27, 04:41 PM
 
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No one said that it would continue at a 800% increase, that is just stupid. We are stating that it will increase in sales/market share and has not peaked like you and the G&M article think it has.
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