Apparently the PS4.5 is a real thing - Page 2 - Canadian TV, Computing and Home Theatre Forums
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post #16 of 35 (permalink) Old 2016-03-26, 09:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Steve604
I would call Digital Foundry the experts of the industry
Well, I'll go on record and say that the GPU for this "PS4.5" console will be more than twice as powerful as the original 2013 PS4. That goes against what the "experts" at Digital Foundry said, with them saying that doubling the GPU performance would be a pretty incredible achievement, and is unlikely. I think if it only doubles, that's a major disappointment.

We'll see who is right.
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post #17 of 35 (permalink) Old 2016-03-26, 11:56 PM
 
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Fair enough but even at 2.5 times the power that's not enough for a 4k experience comparable with the current 1080 experience. It's debatable if it can handle 1080 with it's current power. Battlefront at 900 not to mention frame rates into the teens on some of the more demanding 1080 titles. Heat is also already a concern on the current unit.

I run my GTX 980 at 2 resolutions, 1920x1080 on my big screen and 3440x1440 on the monitor. No where near 4k pixel count and it has a significant impact on graphics settings going to the monitor.

Ram will be a deciding factor too, these games are already maxing out the current ram.

I don't think 4k is the answer either, I'd rather see some more game detail, I'm sure Sony is thinking they will see a spike in sales of 4k tv's as well.

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post #18 of 35 (permalink) Old 2016-03-27, 12:20 PM Thread Starter
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In terms of probability of what the PS4.5 can do I think:

4K movies =100%
PSVR upgrade=50%
4K games=0% (except for indies)

As I've lamented earlier, segmenting the marketplace would be a bad idea after just 3 years. There would be no reason to call it a 4.5 instead of a 5, the entire premise of a 4.5 I think is predicated on the fact that the games will be compatible.

I wonder though if it would have been smarter to just call it the PS4 slim and THEN mention the 4K part. The 4.5 thing is bringing out the knives from the doomsayers.
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post #19 of 35 (permalink) Old 2016-03-27, 01:27 PM
 
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Even though the PS4 is three years old, it doesn't mean owners got theirs then. I bought mine about 9 months ago and I'm kind of miffed with this news to be honest.

My knives aren't out yet - but I am thinking of getting them sharpened. Just in case.
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post #20 of 35 (permalink) Old 2016-03-27, 03:45 PM
 
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Originally Posted by dezzpayne View Post
In terms of probability of what the PS4.5 can do I think:

4K movies =100%
PSVR upgrade=50%
4K games=0% (except for indies)

As I've lamented earlier, segmenting the marketplace would be a bad idea after just 3 years. There would be no reason to call it a 4.5 instead of a 5, the entire premise of a 4.5 I think is predicated on the fact that the games will be compatible.

I wonder though if it would have been smarter to just call it the PS4 slim and THEN mention the 4K part. The 4.5 thing is bringing out the knives from the doomsayers.
I surprisingly agree

4k streaming and other media for sure, I feel MS and Sony both dropped the ball big time by releasing consoles that didn't offer that out of the gate.

Given the apparent release date, VR is likely a big reason for this console, I suspect Sony didn't plan on VR until next gen, but given the huge run away success of the PS4 and all the extra revenue they had the resources to push development of the PS VR hard. Realistically given the demands of VR on PC and the power of the current PS4, I suspect PS VR would have been disappointing for enthusiast. The increased power will help make PS VR a legit contender. From most tech reviews etc the general consensus I've read about PS VR on the current model PS4 would have been a blow to VR not a push forward offering a disappointing experience unless they could really pull off the fun factor like the Wii did. The main concern was look at the Wii now.

I think segmenting the market is a bad idea, but it's not really segmenting if they offer BC but exclusive titles this early is a bad idea. Another problem being dev's have 2 consoles to optimize for, bad enough they optimize for 3 platforms. I also predicted over a year ago new consoles were going to move to even faster releases. I myself said we will see a new console by 2018, looks like it will be 2016, as I'm sure MS is scrambling to get something off, either that or they'll go huge next year. How could they not, Sony in my eyes is essentially killing a successful console for a new one, why would MS hold onto it's less successful console.

So far I'd say Sony is doing a better job marketing this new console but I think your right, call it the PS4 slim, mention the 4k and say it is optimized for VR.
When MS mentioned a new this gen console with more power or possibly being upgradeable the console fanboys were ready to kill. Sony dubs it the PS4k and people love it. They act like this stuff is leaks but it's all planned.

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post #21 of 35 (permalink) Old 2016-03-27, 08:41 PM
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I hope that console gamers would be mature enough to not be all butthurt because new computer hardware comes out that's better than old computer hardware.

Your old PS4 will play games just fine for the foreseeable future. Everything will be okay.

It's just that the PS4 isn't fast enough to drive higher resolutions/frame rates/VR.

@Steve604 , my understanding is that the AMD lithography is going from 28nm to 14nm for this next generation of products. That means, for the same die size, we should see ~4x the transistor count in the newer chips. For something like a GPU, that should mean that you'd get 4x as many "processing units" like shader processors. For "embarrassingly parallel" problems like graphics, that should translate into a linear performance gain (vs transistor count) when you're fill rate limited - like when you're rendering at a high resolution.

As far as memory bandwith is concerned, if the console makers stick with DDR5 then that's unlikely to change much. If however they use HBM technology (and why wouldn't they?), then we should expect ~5 times the memory bandwidth for the new tech. Both AMD and NVIDIA have said that they're going to be using HBM throughout their new generation of GPUs. If I were Sony, given the significant improvements in HBM, I think it would be silly to release a console update too early and "miss the boat" on HBM.

So, I think you can see why I feel safe in my prediction that Digital Foundry is wrong and that we'll see better than a 2x performance improvement in the graphics performance of the next Sony console.
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post #22 of 35 (permalink) Old 2016-03-27, 10:51 PM Thread Starter
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Even if it's twice the GPU power there's still the business decision on if it's a good idea to segment your fanbase 3 years into a console cycle (it's not). It may be odd but much of the extra oomph it may get may go to waste as Developers will develop for the weaker system. I think, as I mentioned earlier, that 4.5 users may see a better frame rate or resolution via a patch or something but you won't have to worry about buying the PS4 version VS the PS4.5 version. Otherwise it would be a PS5.
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post #23 of 35 (permalink) Old 2016-03-28, 11:26 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audacity View Post
I hope that console gamers would be mature enough to not be all butthurt because new computer hardware comes out that's better than old computer hardware.

Your old PS4 will play games just fine for the foreseeable future. Everything will be okay.

It's just that the PS4 isn't fast enough to drive higher resolutions/frame rates/VR.

@Steve604 , my understanding is that the AMD lithography is going from 28nm to 14nm for this next generation of products. That means, for the same die size, we should see ~4x the transistor count in the newer chips. For something like a GPU, that should mean that you'd get 4x as many "processing units" like shader processors. For "embarrassingly parallel" problems like graphics, that should translate into a linear performance gain (vs transistor count) when you're fill rate limited - like when you're rendering at a high resolution.

As far as memory bandwith is concerned, if the console makers stick with DDR5 then that's unlikely to change much. If however they use HBM technology (and why wouldn't they?), then we should expect ~5 times the memory bandwidth for the new tech. Both AMD and NVIDIA have said that they're going to be using HBM throughout their new generation of GPUs. If I were Sony, given the significant improvements in HBM, I think it would be silly to release a console update too early and "miss the boat" on HBM.

So, I think you can see why I feel safe in my prediction that Digital Foundry is wrong and that we'll see better than a 2x performance improvement in the graphics performance of the next Sony console.

I don't see it, my $800 graphics card can't do it, I don't see an APU in a $400 console doing it, the tech isn't moving that fast right now.
The next Nvidia launch has been described as meh. I can't see Sony pushing past Nvidia,
Time will tell


Quote:
Originally Posted by dezzpayne View Post
Even if it's twice the GPU power there's still the business decision on if it's a good idea to segment your fanbase 3 years into a console cycle (it's not). It may be odd but much of the extra oomph it may get may go to waste as Developers will develop for the weaker system. I think, as I mentioned earlier, that 4.5 users may see a better frame rate or resolution via a patch or something but you won't have to worry about buying the PS4 version VS the PS4.5 version. Otherwise it would be a PS5.
I don't think we will see a future where you buy a PS4 or PS5 version of a game, I think it'll just be you buy the game, insert it into the console, the console then picks the settings automatically based on what console you have and/or your selected resolution.

The only issue is optimization, will console games get the kind of attention they do now? Will it work like PC and there is a driver update before each major game?
Personally I really like the PC model, I install a game, GeForce Experience then downloads any required drivers and settings. I pick a resolution and Nvidia applies the best setting for my card, this works out really well as I play at different resolutions. All guess work is gone. With the option to tweak if you choose.

I don't think the console model of the past will be the console of the future.

Mind blown, will PS4k have an optical drive??????? That would keep cost down and leave room in the budget for more processing power

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post #24 of 35 (permalink) Old 2016-03-28, 12:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Steve604
I don't see it, my $800 graphics card can't do it, I don't see an APU in a $400 console doing it, the tech isn't moving that fast right now.
Your $800 graphics card probably could do it if you turned down the game settings to be console level graphics. Lower the texture resolutions to the same level that your Xbox One uses, and I'm pretty sure it would work.

Your Xbox One has a fill rate of 12.8 gigapixels/sec. Your 980 Ti has a fill rate of 95 gigapixels/sec (at stock clocks).

Also, remember that the 980 Ti is using the same 28nm fabrication process. With a 14nm fabrication process that chip would be 1/4 of the cost to manufacture and wouldn't be a "$800 video card" anymore. Going from 28nm to 14nm is a pretty big deal, a very significant percentage jump in capabilities and/or cost. Both HBM and the process shrink will be pretty revolutionary when it comes to performance per dollar.

The tech hasn't moved that fast for the past ~5 years because the GPU makers have been stuck on 28nm for such a long time. But that's about to change.

Even if we look at the graphics cards that were released last year (2015) at "4K" resolutions, we see that the FPS averages are above the 30fps that consoles typically provide at 1080p or sub-1080p resolutions.

http://techreport.com/news/28501/her...-x-performance
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve604
Mind blown, will PS4k have an optical drive??????? That would keep cost down and leave room in the budget for more processing power
This would be the smart thing to do.
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post #25 of 35 (permalink) Old 2016-03-28, 05:51 PM
 
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Your $800 graphics card probably could do it if you turned down the game settings to be console level graphics. Lower the texture resolutions to the same level that your Xbox One uses, and I'm pretty sure it would work.

Your Xbox One has a fill rate of 12.8 gigapixels/sec. Your 980 Ti has a fill rate of 95 gigapixels/sec (at stock clocks).

Also, remember that the 980 Ti is using the same 28nm fabrication process. With a 14nm fabrication process that chip would be 1/4 of the cost to manufacture and wouldn't be a "$800 video card" anymore. Going from 28nm to 14nm is a pretty big deal, a very significant percentage jump in capabilities and/or cost. Both HBM and the process shrink will be pretty revolutionary when it comes to performance per dollar.

The tech hasn't moved that fast for the past ~5 years because the GPU makers have been stuck on 28nm for such a long time. But that's about to change.

Even if we look at the graphics cards that were released last year (2015) at "4K" resolutions, we see that the FPS averages are above the 30fps that consoles typically provide at 1080p or sub-1080p resolutions.

Here's a first look at the Radeon R9 Fury X's performance - The Tech Report


This would be the smart thing to do.
I'm aware that graphics cards are capable of 4k but they do struggle with it, which is why I don't think the PS4 can pull it off. Just ran some bench marks of dirt rally. At 1080p I run ultra setting with 8x msaa and run 60fps capped(will go higher). At 4k I ran 12-17fps with the same settings. From what I've read most gaming at 4k are doing so with SLI

So it's quite literally 4 times the power. I doubt the PS4.5 will have 4 times the power of the PS4 despite advances in tech, especially given that tech has yet to hit the market. Sony and MS released obsolete consoles as cost savings. I can't see either one walking away from that model at this point.

The Polaris equivalent of a GTX 970 is supposed to be $350US and is supposed to run 1080p at 90fps(min. VR), That's a long way off 4k at even 30fps.
I just don't see it, and from what I've read on the new cards, they aren't putting out 4 times the power, of a 2015 card.
On paper they can, that doesn't mean they will.
From what I've read efficiency is the focus of upcoming CPU's and GPU's not raw power, Intel has stated you may see processors that have lower performance numbers than their predecessors in the name of efficiency.

I don't disagree that it could be done, what I'm saying is I don't think they will.

Also the material cost may be 1/4 but that doesn't mean the manufacturing costs are. If that were the case we would have seen significant price drops of computer processors over the years. Which we really haven't, more power but costs are similar. A 6700k isn't 4 times more power full than a 2600k, it's also not 4 times cheaper. It's about the same price with about 25% more power, granted a gpu isn't the same tech, but you see where I'm going.

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post #26 of 35 (permalink) Old 2016-03-28, 06:07 PM
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At 1080p I run ultra setting with 8x msaa and run 60fps capped
Sure, but those settings are far, far higher than what the games run at when running on consoles. Take the AA down to 2x, or turn it off. Go down from "ultra" to something "middle of the road" and try again.

If you have settings so high that it's maxing out your video memory or memory bandwidth, it's going to thrash, and it'll be slow.

Try it with "console-level" settings.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve604
6700k isn't 4 times more power full than a 2600k
I'm aware that desktop Intel chips haven't made a significant gain since Sandy Bridge, but lets be real here: Intel has been focusing their efforts on improving desktop performance for a few generations now. They've been designing for tablets and laptops. If they put the big Broadwell cache on a Skylake design, they might really have something though. I guess we'll stay tuned to see what they release this fall.

But to reiterate a previous point I made before: consoles don't have chips anywhere near as powerful as the CPUs that Intel provides. See this chart. A PS4 CPU uses the same cores as a Athlon 5150. This is mostly because AMD has been stuck on a really crappy CPU design for many years now. This is AMD's Pentium 4. AMD has been suggesting that they'll be releasing a new design soon that will be competitive with Intel designs, and that means that the console world could hugely benefit.

Of course, delivering the same game at 4x the pixels is mostly a graphics card issue - the CPU might need to do somewhat more work, but the graphics chips need to be literally 4x as powerful. And, for the reasons I mentioned before, I think Sony can really do it with the new tech that's coming down the road. Because this new tech (on paper) offers a 4x improvement in capabilities on both the GPU and memory bandwidth fronts. It may or may not play out in the real world, but whatever. We have our competing predictions. I'm pretty sure it'll be better than 2x as powerful as the PS4.

Oh, and who says that Sony needs to sell this new upscale console at $400? I think if they have a "low end" PS4 at $250 and a "high end" PS5 at $500, that would be just fine. Just say to your customers that "look, we need this much power to do VR and 4k. If you're ready to spend on a VR headset and a new 4K TV, you're probably not poor. What, would you prefer a new faster $400 console that still can't do VR and 4K?"

If people don't want to pay the high price for a fast console, they can stick with their existing PS4. If new customers don't like the high price, they can buy the PS4 at it's reduced price and still play all the (non-VR) new games.
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post #27 of 35 (permalink) Old 2016-03-28, 08:19 PM
 
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Sony said it would be $400

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post #28 of 35 (permalink) Old 2016-03-28, 09:39 PM
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Where did they say that? Link?
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post #29 of 35 (permalink) Old 2016-03-29, 03:59 AM
 
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Sony's "leak". I'll see if I can find where I read it. I think $400 is the sweet spot too

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post #30 of 35 (permalink) Old 2016-03-29, 10:55 AM
 
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Where did they say that? Link?
Rumor: Sony will announce the PS4.5 before the PS VR launch

This article mentions the $400.00 price point.
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