Anyone want to guess on the future of Nokia after the complete and utter disaster that the Microsoft Windows Phone-based Lumia line has been?
Now its just a disaster. When they go out of business or get bought out (which I suspect they will in the next 12 to 18 months) then it will be complete.complete and utter disaster
But do you really believe that without any changes, they would have kept on climbing? That consumers would still be buying Symbian devices in record numbers? RIM was once making record profits and selling record numbers of devices, but they failed to see what so many of us outsiders saw; their OS wouldn't hold up against Android and iOS and they needed to adjust for the future market.The blue line shows that Nokia's smartphone unit alone had just reported a Nokia-record profit and on an annualized basis would bring Nokia's profits into the Fortune Global 100.
I'm going to go ahead and assume you mean the first decent product to come out of Microsoft Mobile in a decade. Even still, WP7/7.5 was generally critically well received. On its own merit, it is a pretty good platform. The fact that it never grabbed much market share was partially due to its significantly delayed arrival, and partly due to the difficulties of cracking the smartphone OS market these days.Of course, the one wildcard here is Windows Phone 8. I am cautiously optimistic that this might be the first decent product to come out of Microsoft in a decade.
Market Share was bleeding well before Elop arrived. Nokia announced the all Windows Phone in Q1 2011.Nokia was not bleeding any market share prior to Elop's arrival from Microsoft and his subsequent conversion of the company to a Windows Phone maker. The complete and utter disaster is all his doing:
"They have had problems for a long time and have been behind the curve on trends for the past few years. I think it could be good to get new influences, thoughts and ideas," said Inge Heydorn, fund manager at Sentat Asset Management.
I said "bleeding badly" back then because that was what Gartner and all the research firms were reporting in their market share stats.The reality is that Nokia is bleeding badly. The Smartphone market has taken off and they are down and out.
It was Android or WP. Nokia considered Android and rejected it as being me too.
Not sure Nokia had much of a choice.
(Voice of Yosemite Sam) Whoa, whoa... WHOA!!! That chart of yours has some glaring problems as relates to Nokia:hugh said:Market Share was bleeding well before Elop arrived.
Well, do you have any evidence to suggest this was not the case? Everyone knew that Nokia needed to move away from Symbian because it isn't a modern OS in the context of iOS/Android/Windows Phone 7. Heck, even RIM's Blackberry OS was technically ahead of Symbian.Like most myths this one about Nokia bleeding market share prior to Elop's arrival will probably never die.
Nokia, prior to Elop, did not need to pick any OS. It had Symbian, which was not the problematic OS that some folks seem to imply as it was being greatly improved by the QT toolkit. Nokia had Maemo, it's proven Linux platform, for small form factor computers. Nokia had Meego, which it was co-developing with Intel to eventually augment and replace Symbian on smartphones, and which now lives on as Samsung's Tizen. Nokia had Meltemi, which was a Linux OS for dumbphones that would replace the S40 OS. Everything was fine, and the products kept improving as did Nokia's profits. The idea of Nokia paying another company whopping royalties on each phone was and is absurd.so Nokia needed to pick some other software to use/license
Symbian was on its way out, and needed to be replaced quickly. Sony Ericsson, for example, didn't abandon Symbian just because Android was free, they abandoned it because Android was better and more popular. If Symbian had been worth supporting, SE could have continued producing devices for both OS. Clearly, from their point of view, there was no business case for staying with Symbian.Nokia, prior to Elop, did not need to pick any OS. It had Symbian, which was not the problematic OS that some folks seem to imply as it was being greatly improved by the QT toolkit. Nokia had Maemo, it's proven Linux platform, for small form factor computers. Nokia had Meego, which it was co-developing with Intel to eventually augment and replace Symbian on smartphones, and which now lives on as Samsung's Tizen. Nokia had Meltemi, which was a Linux OS for dumbphones that would replace the S40 OS.
What does that prove, precisely? It doesn't prove that Nokia had better options available with their own software stack.stampeder said:Nokia did not need Microsoft and did not need Windows Phone OS. The dismal state of Nokia today is all the proof that we need.
This does not align with the impressions of Symbian from the tech press, and it doesn't align with my experiences trying out a Symbian handset. Symbian was way behind the technology in iOS, and Nokia needed to make a major change.stampeder said:It had Symbian, which was not the problematic OS that some folks seem to imply as it was being greatly improved by the QT toolkit.
Interesting. I've had conversations with a friend of mine who worked on Maemo in 2010-2011 (he previously worked at Canonical), and from what he told me, Maemo was a mess and pointed to its security implementation as something that was overly complex (poorly designed), and said that the entire project lacked momentum.stampeder said:Nokia had Maemo, it's proven Linux platform, for small form factor computers.
Profits are not what you'd call a leading indicator of trouble. When a financial quarter of profits are reported you're looking at the past.stampeder said:Everything was fine, and the products kept improving as did Nokia's profits.
That's the funniest thing I've read in a long time!Arthur Dent said:stampeder, forget about this Tomi Ahonen guy and his blog
He is an exceptionally intelligent, well informed analyst and has a terrific sense of humour too. Check this out:Tomi T Ahonen - Author, Consultant and Motivational Speaker - Author of twelve bestselling books on mobile, already
into multiple printings and translated into several languages, Tomi's books and theories are quoted in over 120 published
books by his peers. The former Nokia executive lectures at short courses at Oxford University and is regularly quoted in
the press in over 400 articles published in over two dozen languages on all six inhabited continents. Tomi is often seen on
TV talking about mobile and digital trends and has been seen at over 250 conferences on over 80 cities in over 50 countries
and attended by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people. His reference list includes most major tech companies in the
Fortune 500 including Axiata, BT, China Mobile, Google, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Intel, LG, Motorola, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo,
Orange, RIM, SK Telecom, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Tigo and Vodafone, etc.
Unless I've missed one, there were only two Maemo devices ever released by Nokia; the N900 and the N9. Neither experienced significant commercial success, and the decision to merge Maemo into what would become Meego was made long before Elop took over because the previous Nokia administration believed it couldn't compete.Maemo was available commercially on several devices sold mostly in Europe and quickly developed a cult following, especially with the forever-in-prototype N900. It was ready for prime time, my friends, and I use it every day on my N900.
Meego was not ready when the decision was made to partner with Microsoft. Nokia wasn't sure what the final OS would look like, and they had no hardware ready to run it. Waiting for Meego would have set them back months for a platform that might have been far worse. Even given the critical success it achieved; critical success does not necessarily translate to commercial success (just look at WebOS). There are other factors at play here.Meego was also ready for prime time, so when it hit the market it won awards over iOS and Android. It is Samsung's ace-in-the-hole now in case any issues with Android should arise for them.
Two things with dumbphones. First, almost nobody who buys dumbphones actually cares how good the OS is (or they would be buying smartphones). Second, the market and profit margins for dumbphones are shrinking rapidly. That's a dying business.Meltemi was 2 months away from release when it was cancelled by Elop. 2 months! It was for dumbphones, and it was excellent.
That may be true, but as far as I'm concerned Nokia was heading for disaster before Elop and Microsoft entered the picture.Microsoft, Stephen Elop, and Windows Phone have been a disaster for Nokia and it is as plain as day.
I think you mean Arthur Dent. But go ahead and blame me for someone else's post. Please, go ahead.stampeder said:So audacity you want me to forget about him and the books of his I've read over the years as part of my career and the time he spoke to us at our site and the videos I've watched. Presumably that is because you dislike his message? I simply cannot debate anything about the mobile phone industry with you if you would go so far as to completely reject such an elite analyst.
You missed a couple of very popular Internet tablets along the way, but hey, they were European only. As for being released, Maemo was. Also it actually can be brought to bear as part of a Plan B if necessary, which was my point. Facts are facts.Unless I've missed one, there were only two Maemo devices ever released by Nokia; the N900 and the N9
And I apologize profusely, audacity, for my error. I do not wish to make any of this discussion personal so I am clarifying that right now. I went back and edited that post with my super moderator powers and I am sorry.I think you mean Arthur Dent.
Wow, the award-winning N9 Meego phones were just a dream? The Nokia phones that allowed Nokia devotees to do everything they were used to doing but with such a great interface that it was voted better than Android and iPhone? Elop has refused to let the N9 be sold commonly, but sure enough they took the N9's outward appearance and made the latest Lumias look like that.Meego was not ready when the decision was made to partner with Microsoft.
Nokia has made and could continue to make huge profits in that market segment. Here in North America there is a certain hubris that seems to make analysts blind to the obvious because it is not happening in their own back yard. Nokia had a hammer lock on dumbphones (an increasing international market for which Nokia's expenses to fill the market have been very low for high profit) and Elop killed it. Dead. No Windows Phone can ever operate in the dumbphone marketplace, so now Elop has totally given away Nokia's tried and true profit centre. Did you know that in many developing countries that have little or no land line system per se a mobile phone is actually called a Nokia in common parlance? Elop kissed all that goodbye. These are markets involving the majority of the people on this planet and he killed it. People in those markets have neither the money nor the interest in smartphones - they want their trusty, reliable Nokia, and each time they buy one Nokia chalked up a profit for relatively little cost. That's how you make a profit in almost any situation. Under Elop it is clear that Nokia cannot make a profit under any circumstances.Second, the market and profit margins for dumbphones are shrinking rapidly. That's a dying business.
Against sober analysis of the evidence, it would seem.That may be true, but as far as I'm concerned Nokia was heading for disaster before Elop and Microsoft entered the picture.
Personally, from my experience using Symbian (on a Nokia 5230) and, briefly, Maemo on an N900. I have no experience with Meego, though I've heard good things, or Meltemi, on which I have no opinion of the OS itself.I'm seeing a few people here slagging Nokia's pre-Microsoft products based on... um... beats me...
I don't think anyone is arguing that they were doing poorly before. Rather, that it was extremely unlikely that they could maintain their success continuing with Symbian for much longer.under Elop's watch it is abundantly clear that Nokia was doing great beforehand and was subsequently wrecked.
I could be wrong on my timeline. To be perfectly honest I never followed Meego too closely, as it never seemed likely to reach North America. However (if I remember correctly), the Microsoft partnership was announced in February of last year, while the N9 didn't make it to market until September or October, 8 or 9 months later, and around the same time as the first Lumia devices. It wasn't even announced until June of 2011, four months after the Microsoft partnership was announced.Wow, the award-winning N9 Meego phones were just a dream?
Are these things that the average consumer would make use of? People like you and I represent a very, very small section of the market Nokia needs to capture. The average consumer wants things simple and straightforward.I also want to deal with the misguided notion that Windows Phone is/was somehow more "ready" than any of the in-house Nokia OSes I've mentioned. There are so many things that the in-House OSes can do that Windows Phone cannot that it is laughable.
With sub-$100 (outright) Android phones and a rapidly growing demand for smartphone use (even in developing nations) how much longer do you think that's going to last? It's a dying market, in my opinion.Nokia had a hammer lock on dumbphones
Are you talking about Tomi or Steve Jobs? Because that sounds a lot like Jobs too, but he was still a pretty smart guy.Opinionated and bitter to infinity.
That is not exactly fair position, because you can never be proven wrong. Symbian, Maemo, Meego, etc. - dead and gone, can't come back, with or without Elop. Arguments of the type "what if something in the past happened one way or another" are generally pointless. Depending on what happens next, Tomi's next volume of blogs will be issued under the title "How Elop Killed Nokia" or "How Nokia Survived Elop's Assassination Attempt".I don't really feel like I have the desire or energy to keep trying to clarify all this and I don't wish to be repetitive so I accept if some people disagree with me but I hold my views as strongly as cast iron about the need for Nokia to get rid of their Microsoft / Elop / Windows Phone as soon as possible.
cheers