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post #24 of (permalink) Old 2012-06-22, 01:19 PM
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Originally Posted by stampeder
Now look at it from the carriers' viewpoint: after all the megabucks spent on marketing Lumia it still does not sell, so this announcement only cripples a crippled platform further.
Well, AT&T was selling the Lumia phones faster than Nokia could make them, and AT&T made the statement that the "Lumia 900 is exceeding AT&T's expectations". In other words, I'm sure we're talking about millions of Lumia 900 phones, not hundreds of thousands.

Originally Posted by stampeder
For developers of apps, a simple calculus is whether the expense of writing/porting their products to a dead end product is worth it. Given the market numbers we have been seeing, it is clearly not.
It sounds like you're not a software developer, so let me give go into some detail here about why I think you're wrong.

First, WP7 has a active app ecosystem. There are lots of apps on it. 100,000 of them, apparently. For apps, WP7 is punching well above its market share weight.

Second, "porting" those apps WP7 to WP8 will be very little work to take advantage of some of the new WP8 features, and if app devs do nothing, they will still run on WP8. The .NET framework is a abstraction layer so developers can write their apps and run them on any platform that implements that abstraction layer, and WP8 supports a superset of the API calls that WP7 does - so WP7 apps will always run on WP8 (but the reverse would be sometimes, but not always true - depending on weather the dev uses a WP8-only API call).

Third, the biggest app platform in the world (i.e. Windows) will get developer support. We're talking hundreds of millions (if not over a billion) users use it. Companies rely on it, and lots of developers are familiar with how to develop for it. There aren't many bets you can make in the tech industry that are as sure of a bet as the next version of Windows. The users will be there, and if the users are there the devs will come. Once the devs start writing for Windows 8, it's extremely easy to port to the phone and (presumably) the next console. This was not true for Windows 7 --> Windows Phone 7 or Windows 7 --> Xbox, although I'm sure both using DirectX in the latter case would have helped somewhat.

If I was writing a Windows 8 Metro app, why wouldn't I invest the extra day or so to get it running on Windows Phone form factor? And perhaps another day to get it running on the next-gen Xbox? The last point is speculation, but after reading about the way that Microsoft lining up its APIs, it is clear that this is what they are targeting: write once for the Microsoft "platform" and then bring your software it to all Microsoft products. This is very different from the development efforts that would have been required in the past if you wanted to be on their PC, phone and console.

So, back to your above quoted question to developers: sure, if you're a iPhone app dev you'd be thinking "well, I don't want to spend months re-writing my app from the ground up to go to WP8?", but if you're a Windows 8 dev the question is "do you want to spend a day or so getting your app working on WP8?". Of course you'd do it! You can deal with all these platforms with a (mostly) shared code base so the maintenance efforts wouldn't be significantly more as it would be if you're doing a iPhone --> WP8 move (which would be twice the amount of code to maintain).

There are a lot of Windows developers out there. More Windows developers than there are iOS developers, and these are the people who I think will be doing the calculus and coming to the easy conclusion that it makes sense to do WP8 and/or the next-gen Xbox if they're developing for Windows anyway.

Originally Posted by stampeder
If you accept that consumers quickly heard about the Symbian OS being a dead end and thus stopped buying Nokia phones worldwide as a reaction, then it logically follows that those same consumers who are so keen at smelling the smoke of a burning platform and shunning it will see that the Lumia line of WP7 phones is now saddled with the reputation of being a dead end too.
We agree that many people would be affected by this announcement and it will hurt WP7 sales until WP8 is out. That said, my point is that there are so many Android phones that are also dead ends that sell extremely well, because the mass market doesn't think "does this phone get OS updates"? If most people thought in that way, only Nexus devices would sell.
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