85:15 for Blu-ray in hi-def Software Sales for week ending Jan. 13

[shabbs]

I gotta say, I find it quite ironic that right below the 85:15 graphic in HMM is an article titled "HD DVD Strikes Back". I wonder if that was intentional?

[oilblue]

Originally Posted by hoodlum

Look at the dual format releases that all heavily favour BD over HD-DVD.

300 11:1
Blood Diamond 4:1
Good Fellas 4:1
HP Goblet of Fire 20:1
HP Prisoner of Azkaban 22:1

Those comparisons on dual format titles are a little flawed:
- 300 is free in-box with current players
- weren't the HP titles still in a BOGO on Blu during the reporting period? (they had definitely fallen off the HD DVD BOGO)

That leaves a couple titles at 4:1, which is closer than the overall 85:15 ratio. Not sure the cited dual format titles tell us a whole lot.

[hoodlum]

Originally Posted by oilblue

That leaves a couple titles at 4:1, which is closer than the overall 85:15 ratio. Not sure the cited dual format titles tell us a whole lot.

Even at 4:1, the ratio tells us that the attach rates on the lower priced toshiba players is not that great, otherwise there would not be this large a gap on software. But that shouldn't be suprising.

[Helmut Hoffer]

It's a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Now that everyone thinks HD-DVD is on the ropes, those who have both formats are buying Blu-ray and many with HD-DVD are probably sitting on the fence for awhile. Kind of like if Allen Greenspan would say the market is going to crash tomorrow, it probably would.

[JohnnyG]

The Blu-ray numbers are really a one trick pony. The second most popular title (300) sold less than 3 copies for every 10 copies of 3:10. One has to wonder what the numbers would have been like if 3:10 did not release that week.

The HD DVD numbers are much better balanced. The number 1 and 2 titles were very close to equal sellers.

[Joeskie]

Also, you guys have to understand this - using Harry Potter is not the right HDM to compare. Neither is 300 (As previously mentioned by OilBlue, because it's bundled with almost all current HD Players.)
It is also much more likely that a PS3 user/gamer will buy HP over the common HD DVD user.

As for me, every movie I bought in the passed two weeks were in BR...except The Pianist which was availible only on HD DVD.

[Boduho]

Well Johnny, you can take your "better balance" if you like. I'm not sure why that matters in the least to you, considering movies 2-10 for BD sold about 2.5 times as much as the best HD-DVD seller. When a movie like War doubles the best seller for HD-DVD you know you're in trouble. But at least HD-DVD is balanced.

[entropy05]

Originally Posted by JohnnyG

The HD DVD numbers are much better balanced. The number 1 and 2 titles were very close to equal sellers.

Yes. Equally poor.

[Hoowaa]

Seems obvious to me that "someone" wants the war to be over and "they" have pockets deep enough to justify that the means will be be justified in the end.

Bogo's are counted as a disk each. 1/2 price software.

HD DVD players at $99 and up are counted as one player each. 1/2 price hardware and more.

Pretty sure movies included in the box are NOT counted towards any totals - cmiiw.

In the end the totals are what they are and they carry some weight with someone that makes decisions about the future of HDM. Before Warner slipped over they were just under 2:1 and now they are more so slanted Blu -no kidding. This is the new metric- so what ? It is what it is and it will be used by people to help make decisions. Eventually the scarcity of red titles from the remaining studio's will be glaring when compared to the availability of titles being released in blu and visible on store shelves over time.

I don't get how all the anecdotal evidence over the past year always is rationalized and the in the end the conclusion by those in the red camp is "If it walks like a duck talks like a duck then for sure it must be a gerbil"

You know what ?

Someday that gerbil lays an egg.

Then what ?

[calvin940]

Originally Posted by Hoowaa

Pretty sure movies included in the box are NOT counted towards any totals - cmiiw.

They are not counted in sales. The point people are making about in box movies (300 in particular) is that because they are free in box, they a) don't count towards sales and b) result in less sales of that title per HD DVD owner because that owner will not buy a copy.

[99semaj]

...sigh...moan...groan...

Helmut, oilblue, et al:

Guys...let it go. Stop trying to justify something that isn't there. It's over. All the way over. Every credible person on this forum has said so, including the most vigourous supporters of HD DVD.

You guys showed up at the end because you were angry that you bet on the wrong pony. I've been there myself and it's annoying as hell to see a product you believe in fail.

But it is what it is. Empty arguments aren't going to change things.

[calvin940]

Originally Posted by 99semaj

It's over. All the way over. Every credible person on this forum has said so, including the most vigourous supporters of HD DVD.

I am not saying it looks good for HD DVD right now, but honestly, the only way it can be considered over is when Toshiba announces that they are discontinuing the format (or both universal and paramount leave). Until then, nothing is really over. Unbalanced? Definitely. Over? Not until something else happens of significance. While the units are still selling and movies are being made for the format, it really isn't over.

[shabbs]

Just wait for Toshiba's 4th gen hardware to be released - it will be the DEATH BLOW for Blu-ray!

[oilblue]

Originally Posted by 99semaj

...sigh...moan...groan...

Helmut, oilblue, et al:

Guys...let it go. Stop trying to justify something that isn't there. It's over. All the way over. Every credible person on this forum has said so, including the most vigourous supporters of HD DVD.

You guys showed up at the end because you were angry that you bet on the wrong pony. I've been there myself and it's annoying as hell to see a product you believe in fail.

But it is what it is. Empty arguments aren't going to change things.

I have no idea what I did to deserve that... At least I wasn't trolling.

[JohnnyCanuck]

Originally Posted by 99semaj

...sigh...moan...groan...

Helmut, oilblue, et al:

Guys...let it go. Stop trying to justify something that isn't there. It's over. All the way over. Every credible person on this forum has said so, including the most vigourous supporters of HD DVD.

You guys showed up at the end because you were angry that you bet on the wrong pony. I've been there myself and it's annoying as hell to see a product you believe in fail.

But it is what it is. Empty arguments aren't going to change things.

I have no idea who you mean by "credible" ... the fact is that most of us are not really all that credible at all. We are speculating from the outside looking in and applying our understanding of general business principles, retail practices, and consumer habit to a specific situation. Very few of us have any specific expertise that lends us any credibility.

Certainly there are exceptions (Gord Lacey comes to mind), but for the most part there are credible arguments to be made that the war is over and equally credible arguments to be made that it is not. In my view, the war is over when one side caves, or blue and red reach an agreement, or hardware and software availability significantly tilts one way or the other. None of that has happened ... the war continues. Does that mean I think red will win ... of course not. But an ugly stalemate is more than just a possibility and that doesn't mean either side won.

The arguments raised by oilblue and others are not incredible, but the individuals involved on both sides of this debate lack any real credibility.