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Old 2011-10-10, 11:07 AM   #61
Francois Caron
 
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Default How long will Apple live on?

Now that Steve Jobs is dead, what will happen to Apple?

We have to be realistic here. The reason Apple became such a huge success is because of Jobs. The company had already avoided bankruptcy once before when, just over a decade after being fired by Apple, they brought him back some three months before the company would have gone bankrupt.

Jobs was the master chef of Apple. He's the one who figured out how to combine different technological ingredients together, and create all of those highly successful gadgets. iMac, iPod, iPhone, iPad...

It's rumoured that Apple has between two and four years of Jobs' ideas left before they run out. After that, what happens then? Is there anyone at Apple or even the world that has the level of brilliance and vision that Jobs had? Or will the company now keep peddling the same merchandise until their products are no longer in demand and they run out of money like the last time?

Even worse, what does this do to worldwide innovation? Will the competition now become lazy because Apple is no longer pushing other companies to be as creative as Apple once was?

Any thoughts?
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Old 2011-10-10, 11:41 AM   #62
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I'm sure Apple will be around for a long time, but I'm not so sure about AAPL continuing on as the "hot stock" that it has been recently.

It is clear from interviews from Apple employees that when Steve was CEO, Steve called the shots. He did the major product launches and all the RDF generating sales pitches. It was claimed that he was the inspiration behind the iPad and iPhone. He certainly was positioned as fundamental.

When Steve Jobs resigned, Tim Cook said that "Apple won't change", but my question is: how can it not?

Sooner or later someone will bring up the fact that Tim Cook has been groomed as the next CEO for years now. My concern is that Steve's refusal to step down until at death's door says (to me) that he didn't have a whole lot of trust in the man - beyond managing the operations and logistics of Apple.

Lets face it: Apple's recent success has been derived from introducing "disruptive" technologies, and Steve was the man when it came to picking the next "technology hit" to bet on. I'm unconvinced that there is anyone quite like him in that way who currently works for Apple or anywhere else.

Of course, I'm not sure how much of AAPL's current price has the expectation of them generating the "next big hit" built into it.
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Old 2011-10-10, 02:02 PM   #63
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Absolutely silly to think that Apple is going to somehow disappear now that Jobs is gone


Quote:
It's rumoured that Apple has between two and four years of Jobs' ideas left before they run out.
Rumoured by whom? Seriously, who said this?
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Old 2011-10-10, 02:15 PM   #64
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Here's one from the Boston Herald that quotes 4 years.

http://news.bostonherald.com/jobfind...&position=also

And it makes sense too, just as much as Jobs waiting to be at death's door before finally resigning. His whole adult life has been dedicated in creating new devices. It's understandable that he'd want to pursue something he loved so much until he just couldn't do it anymore, which also allowed Apple to stockpile a few new ideas for the future.

It'll be interesting to see what emerges. Chances are the technology for some of these new ideas has yet to be developed, which will give everyone at Apple plenty of work (and ulcers ) for the next few years. But once the stockpile of ideas run out, what happens then? Granted, it won't be like the bottom-line-only Jobs-less years at the end of the 20th century, but Apple still runs the risk of losing out big time if a new Master Chef can't be found by then.
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Old 2011-10-10, 10:19 PM   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hugh View Post
Absolutely silly to think that Apple is going to somehow disappear now that Jobs is gone
Of course, but it is interesting to speculate how Apple will perform without Jobs relative to Apple with Jobs.
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Old 2011-10-10, 10:34 PM   #66
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The big difference between Jobs' departure in 1985 and today is that, back then, Apple was headed in the wrong direction. Jobs left because Sculley and the board wanted to continue to milk the Apple II product line, while Jobs knew that the Mac was the future; he was so frustrated that he was marginalized that he just quit to pursue the future.

Today - no such problem among the leadership at Apple. While they don't have Steve's over-riding vision and leadership, they do have Cook's logistics mastery, Ive's design genius, the most profitable (per sq. foot of floor space) retail operation, etc. They have in place 1000 people working full-time on processor design so that they can optimize their software to squeeze every bit of performance out of the hardware of the day.

While the new products and new product categories may not be as frequent and ground-breaking (what's left in the consumer electronics space? maybe TVs, more car integration?), the fact that they're also sitting on $75BILLION of cash means they're not going anywhere anytime soon.
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Old 2011-10-10, 11:10 PM   #67
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75 bill...

Maybe they SHOULD buy a phone company for their phones. They've got enough to buy a small nation!
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Old 2011-10-11, 12:53 AM   #68
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Quote:
It'll be interesting to see what emerges. Chances are the technology for some of these new ideas has yet to be developed, which will give everyone at Apple plenty of work (and ulcers )
I doubt very much you develop ulcers from being involved in work that you love going.
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Old 2011-10-11, 07:35 AM   #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nuje View Post
The big difference between Jobs' departure in 1985 and today is that, back then, Apple was headed in the wrong direction. Jobs left because Sculley and the board wanted to continue to milk the Apple II product line, while Jobs knew that the Mac was the future; he was so frustrated that he was marginalized that he just quit to pursue the future.
Jobs didn't quit back then. He was forced out.
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Old 2011-10-11, 10:01 AM   #70
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Default Apple is in better shape than what the "doom & gloom" pundits say.

First off, Apple has over $70B in cash, in their "war chest". Even if they stop producing anything right now, they can run on their cash alone till 2018. Of course, they are going to continue to refine their existing product line, as well as come out with new products. So Apple is indeed in great shape for several years to come.

While Steve Jobs' absence will be a big creative hole, I think he was able to transfer his ideology to an "apprentice". Any smart person that wants to keep his legacy going would want to see that his knowledge and experience continues past his lifetime.

Apple shareholders don't need to worry.
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Old 2011-10-11, 10:36 AM   #71
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Do people really believe that Jobs left behind a little "ideas" jar that can be dispensed with magical ideas every month for the next 4 years?

Seriously, where does the blogosphere come up with this stuff?
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Old 2011-10-11, 11:03 AM   #72
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Apple University revealed as plan to teach executives to think like Steve Jobs.

A secretive "Apple University" program that the company initiated in 2008 has been clarified to be a way to teach executives to emulate and perpetuate the successful strategies of Steve Jobs.
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Old 2011-10-11, 11:11 AM   #73
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Hugh, it just makes sense. Jobs accepted the state of his health. He never complained that he was too rich and famous to die, and even acknowledged the limited amount of time we all have on this world in his commencement address. So it would only be normal that, knowing he would die soon, and not being the type to curl up in a ball and fade away, he would note down every single idea he had left, and hand everything over to his successors before it was too late.

Also, new products can easily take a year or two to complete. Chances are Apple already had a few new ideas in the bank before Jobs even resigned.

My main concern is what will happen to Apple AFTER they run out of Jobs' ideas. Will the be able to create their own producs? Or will it be the Apple Newton all over again?
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Old 2011-10-11, 12:09 PM   #74
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Quote:
Or will it be the Apple Newton all over again?
Poor choice. The Newton was an iPad too early for its time. Timing can be everything for certain products.
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Old 2011-10-11, 12:13 PM   #75
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Quote:
My main concern is what will happen to Apple AFTER they run out of Jobs' ideas.
Francois, Steve Jobs was a brilliant man but frankly, he never had any "new" ideas.

The MacIntosh, iMac, the iPod, the iPhone and the iPad were not new ideas.

They were definitely among the best of their breed and brilliantly designed and marketed but they were hardly "new" ideas.
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