2010 Hurricane Season Discussion

[hugh]

This is the News, Weather and Anything Else forum so we need a Hurricane sticky thread.

The Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. It will officially start June 1, 2010, and will last until November 30, 2010. Maximum activity is in early to mid September.

These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin.

This year the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration" is predicting an “active to extremely active” hurricane season.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

• 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
• 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
• 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”

Notable Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Upcoming Names

Note: Please NO Global Warming discussions here! (they will be deleted without warning)

This thread is simply for discussing the storms of this coming season, IF and when they become newsworthy.

[hugh]

Naming schemes

In the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific regions, feminine and masculine names are assigned alternately in alphabetic order during a given season. The "gender" of the season's first storm also alternates year to year: the first storm of an odd-numbered year gets feminine name, while the first storm of an even-numbered year gets a masculine name. Six lists of names are prepared in advance, and each list is used once every six years. Five letters — "Q," "U," "X," "Y" and "Z" — are omitted in the Atlantic; only "Q" and "U" are omitted in the Eastern Pacific, so the format accommodates 21 or 24 named storms in a hurricane season. Names of storms may be retired by request of affected countries if they have caused extensive damage. The affected countries then decide on a replacement name of the same gender, and if possible, the same ethnicity, as the name being retired.

If there are more than 21 named storms in an Atlantic season or 24 named storms in an Eastern Pacific season, the rest are named as letters from the Greek alphabet: the twenty-second storm is called "Alpha," the twenty-third "Beta," and so on. This was first necessary during the 2005 season when the list was exhausted. There is no precedent for a storm named with a Greek Letter causing enough damage to justify retirement; how this situation would be handled is unknown.

• Alex
• Bonnie
• Colin
• Danielle
• Earl
• Fiona
• Gaston
• Hermine
• Igor
• Julia
• Karl
• Lisa
• Matthew
• Nicole
• Otto
• Paula
• Richard
• Shary
• Tomas
• Virginie
• Walter

[hugh]

Sadly, the weather forecasters are saying there is an 85% chance of having an above normal season.

This expectation is based on the prediction of three climate factors, all of which are conducive historically to increased tropical cyclone activity. These climate factors are:

1) the tropical multi-decadal signal, which has contributed to the high-activity era in the Atlantic basin that began in 1995,

2) exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea (called the Main Development Region), and

3) either ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific, with La Niña becoming increasingly likely. In addition, dynamical models forecasts of the number and strength of tropical cyclones also predict a very active season.

from 2010 Outlook

[hugh]

Regarding Oil and Hurricanes

What will happen to a hurricane that runs through this oil slick?

• Most hurricanes span an enormous area of the ocean (200-300 miles) — far wider than the current size of the spill.
• If the slick remains small in comparison to a typical hurricane’s general environment and size, the anticipated impact on the hurricane would be minimal.
• The oil is not expected to appreciably affect either the intensity or the track of a fully developed tropical storm or hurricane.
• The oil slick would have little effect on the storm surge or near-shore wave heights.

from this .pdf on NOAA website

[james99]

Tropical Storm Alex -- the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season -- has formed in the Caribbean Sea, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

At 5 a.m, Alex was located off the coast of Honduras and moving west-northwest about 8 mph. Top sustained winds were near 40 mph, and the storm is expected to strengthen before making an initial landfall in Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Sunday.

Path:

http://www.tallahassee.com/apps/pbcs...0625026&Ref=AR

[hugh]

Hurricane Alex churns toward Mexican coast

The Category 1 storm, which became the first June hurricane to form on the Atlantic side of the United States since 1995, is expected to make landfall Wednesday evening.

[james99]

Danielle is about to hit the Barbados this weekend and Earl is projected to be slightly north of Cuba, D.R., Bahamas, etc.

Fiona is forming off of the coast of Africa and will be a hurricane over the weekend.

I just hope it doesn't hit Cuba since I'm booking a trip next week for Labour Day.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Walter Dnes]

Originally Posted by james99

[URL="Hurricane Danielle becomes Category 4 storm"]Fiona is forming off of the coast of Africa and will be a hurricane over the weekend.

I just hope it doesn't hit Cuba since I'm booking a trip next week for Labour Day.

The most long-range forecast I could find is by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). See http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...0082712!!step/ and click on the "(Mon 6 Sep 2010 12UTC)" thumbnail.

Once you get there, click on the PDF download link in the bottom left and zoom in to your heart's content. I counted isobars down to at least 950 mb. 10-day forecasts aren't that skillful, so it could be off. But if it's accurate, it would be a monstrosity, affecting most of the US Atlantic coast. If it stays south, Cuba would have major problems. Also, what route are you flying to get there? Flights from Halifax to Cuba would have to divert around it. Major hurricane tops easily hit 70,000 to 75,000 feet. That's twice the usual 35,000 feet cruising level for passenger jets.

[james99]

Most of the flying route is over the USA since I'm flying out of Toronto.

Thanx for the link.

[reidw]

As of today (Sat.) both Danielle and Earl look like they'll be staying a good distance off shore in the Atlantic. A flight to Cuba shouldn't be affected. TD #1 which may become TS Fiona this weekend will come closer to the islands but the paths projected so far will also keep it out to sea. So far the mainland of North America hasn't been affected much this hurricane season (knock on wood). Let's hope that trend continues.

[Walter Dnes]

Originally Posted by james99

Most of the flying route is over the USA since I'm flying out of Toronto.

Thanx for the link.

First of all, here's a corrected link http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...c_plots!!step/ The previous one was hard-coded to give forecasts put out on August 27th. This link strips the base-date off the URL, and defaults to the most recent forecasts.

The ECMWF forecast has Earl nearing the US east coast but staying offshore. But it might brush the Maritimes. It also shows Fiona's route north blocked by a high pressure area. This forces Fiona almost due west, hitting the US east coast around Georgia on the 6th. The forecast issued Saturday shows Fiona further west on Monday 6th, than does the forecast issued Friday. Keep your eyes on Fiona.

[james99]

MIAMI – Forecasters say Earl has strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane as it barrels toward several islands in the eastern Caribbean

[Walter Dnes]

ECMWF forecast issued 20100829 12Z valid 20100906 (Labour Day) 12Z looks ugly. It has Fiona right on top of western Cuba. It spends the 7th and 8th in the Gulf.

[james99]

Oh lovely. Good thing I haven't booked yet.

[james99]

Forecast has now changed:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...!2010083000!!/