1/2 of Canadians to replace phone in six months

[outinthornhill]

The Globe and Mail is carrying this hard-to-believe story this morning:

"Demonstrating the intense fluctuations coming to Canada's wireless industry in 2010, new research suggests the next six months will see 55 per cent of Canadians buying a new handset, likely a smart phone."

We're Flocking to Smart Phones

It's not surprising that a large number of customers are considering smart phones as their next purchase, but it's incredible to think that half of Canadian wireless customers (let alone half of Canadians) will purchase. Expect some long line-ups at the wireless store if this is true. I think the sample must have been skewed, or it reflects a lot of wishful thinking.

Of note with the shift to smart phones, is the increasing reliance on data over voice. I've been reading this in other reports. The wireless industry pricing model has been based on voice minutes with data as an add-on. Apparently, subscribers are reducing their voice plans, thus lowering revenues to the providers. The best example is the increasing use of text messaging and the decline in voicemail, leading many customers to think the latter is an avoidable luxury (on personal phones at least).

I have no idea how this is going to play-out but can foresee plans built around data, with voice add-ons, in the not too distant future.

[magnet]

I had to replace my phone this year to get one that was Bluetooth enabled to go handsfree. I suspect that banning non-handsfree calling is another factor.

[hugh]

55% in the next six months is pure propaganda. That would be over 17 million people buying a new handset. Considering there are just over 20 million accounts in Canada, that would equate to about 85% of cellphone users.

Yeah right.

[Tezster]

Originally Posted by magnet

I had to replace my phone this year to get one that was Bluetooth enabled to go handsfree. I suspect that banning non-handsfree calling is another factor.

I haven't yet, but that's the only reason I'll be replacing my phone. If I didn't have to worry about diminishing battery life or bluetooth, I could care less if I used the same phone for 10 years - I guess I'm one of the rare people out there that exclusively use my cell phone as a phone.

[ScaryBob]

Slow adoption of devices like the iPhone has created some pent-up demand in Canada. 55% does seem a bit high for a 6 month period. I could see it happening among some demographics. Overall, it seems a bit over the top. We are not about to replace our cell phones, even though things like Bluetooth were disabled by the phone provider.

[57]

Probably should have said:

"50% of those people replacing their phones in the next 6 months will purchase a smartphone."

I read the same article earlier today in disbelief.

[mr weather]

Not me. I still have two more years on my Bell contract.

[hugh]

Actually, the real number is "55% of ONLINE Canadians between the Age of 16 and 60 would be interested in buying a new phone in the next six months, up from 19% who expressed an interest a year earlier"

The press release from TNS was very misleading and ill-informed writers just picked it up without questioning what it meant