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Article: Universal is sticking with HD DVD - format war is good for consumers

6K views 61 replies 22 participants last post by  U 
#1 ·
#4 ·
#6 ·
Universal is in a better positon with their TV shows (BSG, Heroes) than their movies. But I'm thinking that either Sony or Disney or Fox has more weight than Universal. More importantly, Sony has more weight than Universal and the former is a lot more dug in than the latter.

And I just thought of a worst case scenario where both HD-DVD and Blu-ray survive and there is no winner (only losers). What if Blu-ray took one market and HD-DVD took another and such. You could end up with a Blu-ray North America and an HD-DVD Europe and have viable markets for each format with a minority of the other faction of blue laser players. In this case HD-DVD owners never get to (legally) see Spiderman in HD and Blu-ray owners are stuck watching Starbuck in 480i.

Iain.
 
#7 ·
Arthur, you guessed wrong. My comment is based on facts and those facts are unlikely to change if Universal were to release in BD...

Chairman, I agree they have a better TV show lineup... I wish I could get Heroes... Also don't forget about Japan, huge market as well and totally owned by Blu-Ray.
 
#8 · (Edited)
From a content point of view, on the world stage, Japan is irrelevant. English language content, and, more specifically, Hollywood content, rules worldwide. Show me one Japanese title surpassing $100 million in box office, I'll show you 50 in English. Show me 10 Japanese titles surpassing $50 million in box office and I'll show you 1000 in English.

I also wouldn't rule out Universal. It has a rich back catalog of films it can mine for another generation if it finds savvy marketing hooks to do so. It's true this market is driven by the latest hits: but owning the rights to music recordings of Tony Bennett, the Beatles and Elvis is still worth quite a lot.

I thought this remark was telling: When you can get below $300 for hardware, you open up the mass market. Now people are willing to jump in and buy a player. Given that we have arrived there already just after Mother's Day 2007 for HD DVD and may not reach that by Xmas 2007 for Blu-Ray (certainly no mainstream player/manufacturer has announced the intention of such a thing), Universal may well prove -- sooner, rather than later -- to be backing the right horse.
 
#9 ·
Show me 10 Japanese titles surpassing $50 million in box office and I'll show you 1000 in English.
1. Neko no ongaeshi (The Cat Returns)
2. Odoru daisosasen the movie 2: Rainbow Bridge wo fuusa seyo! (Bayside Shakedown 2)
3. Howl's moving Castle
4. Sekai no chûshin de, ai o sakebu (Crying Out Love, in the Center of the World)
5. Gedo senki (Tales from Earthsea)
6. Spirited Away
7. Mononoke Hime
8. Pokemon
9. Pokemon 2000
10. Pokemon 3

Gord
 
#11 ·
Gord, you pointed out 10 Japanese releases grossing $50M, but his point was for those 10, there are 1000 English speaking releases grossing the same.

I think Universal is the smartest studio out there and I agree with the idea that if we only had one format, we would probably still be looking at $1000 players.

The war is only 1 year old and we are looking at sub $300 prices (in the US of course).

By the 4th quartre, if Toshiba can knock down the price by another $100 and Universal releases a couple of big hits like Jaws or Jurassic Park, it will definitely be a big push for HDDVD.

I also think that what Warner Bros is doing is good as well. Hybrid discs are a very good thing. And I whole heartedly support the idea of a disc that plays in both players.
 
#14 ·
Thanks, Gord, for challenging my rhetoric. I stand by my point, but not the exact numbers. :eek:

U, that is a different twist than I read, so thanks for clearing that up.

And I still disagree. ;)

The Japanese English movie market is important, but niche, in the context of English language movie sales. Put another way, what happens in Tokyo will not decide the market in Topeka. Just my opinion. I'd find a fact to back it up but I',m too busy cagtaloguing 1000 English language films that have grossed over $50 million. :p
 
#16 ·
Knocked up is going to have a very hard time breaking the top 10 this year. Look at all the big franchise movies coming out this year and it is going to be a very big year at the box office. The one really big Universal movie that is coming out is the Borne Ultimatum but it will be out to late to get a release for Xmas unless they do a simultaneous release. I'm picturing the hot seat being too hot for that.

BTW Poet Europe is firmly in BD land now.
http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=201
 
#18 · (Edited)
BTW Poet Europe is firmly in BD land now.
http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=201
Jvillain, the PS3 introduction effect is old news. We all know it didn't kill HD DVD and it's getting less likely as time goes by. Nothing is "firmly in BD land", and the way things unfold in Europe is not different than in the US. Even if it is going to stay this way long term, HD DVD will be viable enough. But with the introduction of mass market cheaper players - we hear recent data about five fold increase of the sales with the last Toshiba promotion - and with software attachment rate for standalone players 10 to 20 times higher than for the PS3) things will almost certainly be looking even better for HD DVD both in North America and Europe. Japan is a different market - due to the overwhelming Sony and PS3 dominance - but if it influenced the world market in any way, people now would be walking with MiniDisc players instead of iPods and the XBox 360 would be dead. Both Universal and HD DVD are big and here to stay, I don't know what point you guys are trying to prove with your doomsday hopes. :)

P.S. Accept that your PS3 will not cook dinner and walk the dogs for you, neither will it play all hi-def discs. Enjoy it for what it can and move on.
 
#21 ·
Well if pointing out - with facts - that Universal does very poorly at the box office equals "doomsday hopes" then so be it.

In any case, there is some stuff I want in the Universal catalog so unless they start releasing in BD I'll pick up an HD-DVD player when they are around $100-$150. Until then SD DVD beautifully upconverted on my newly upgraded PS3 will do just fine... :D

PS. I heard that cooking diner and walking the dog will be part of the next PS3 firmware update... ;)
 
#22 ·
Beautifully put, U.

In any case, there is some stuff I want in the Universal catalog so unless they start releasing in BD I'll pick up an HD-DVD player when they are around $100-$150.
In the longer term, customers will DEMAND a format which deliver not ONLY the latest 10 blockbusters, but the other 10,000 movie and TV and documentary titles which make up their viewing library.

And Universal has a rich back 70+ year catalog despite this season's lack of hits ... which will see it through into and beyond the HD DVD/Blu-Ray debacle.

Customers, if forced, will buy a hardware format based on deep software catalog titles -- like venerable Universal.
 
#24 ·
The fact that Universal holds the key to the survival of HD-DVD (based on most HD and BD supporter comments here and elsewhere) I don't know how anyone can claim Universal is not a major studio. Sony only ranks as a major because it bought up several big studios and slapped their brand on it. Sony is only a sum of the parts studio and some of those parts don't perform very well or have the vault potential that Universal has.

Universal remains an internationally recognized brand so they are a major in my books.

As for Universal's position ... I think they are taking a calm level headed approach to the "war". There solid support should actually shake some of the other studios to break exclusive support with BD by later this year or early next.

I also believe the PS3 effect to start waning as time goes on too since people buy them more for gaming machines than BD players. In the end families or households with more than one person will opt for standalone players because who the heck wants to fight over who is going to use the PS3 (or XBox 360) the gamers or the movie watchers. If you look at the "war" excluding gaming consoles HD-DVD is in good shape or even leading in certain regions.
 
#25 ·
The fact that Universal holds the key to the survival of HD-DVD (based on most HD and BD supporter comments here and elsewhere) I don't know how anyone can claim Universal is not a major studio. Sony only ranks as a major because it bought up several big studios and slapped their brand on it. Sony is only a sum of the parts studio and some of those parts don't perform very well or have the vault potential that Universal has.
It depends on how you qualify a studio as "major"... I looked at box office scrores and from that POV they do very poorly, at least in the recent years. As for Sony, regardless of where they came from, they do much better than Universal, again based on box office scores.

I also believe the PS3 effect to start waning as time goes on too since people buy them more for gaming machines than BD players.
I assume you have numbers to back this claim up?

In the end families or households with more than one person will opt for standalone players because who the heck wants to fight over who is going to use the PS3 (or XBox 360) the gamers or the movie watchers. If you look at the "war" excluding gaming consoles HD-DVD is in good shape or even leading in certain regions.
But you are assuming that said families have more than one HDTV... I don't have any statistics on this but considering the price of HD sets I doubt it's the majority. I'm sure James has more than one.. ;)

In my family gamers and movies watchers get along fine... :)
 
#26 · (Edited)
we hear recent data about five fold increase of the sales with the last Toshiba promotion
You forgot to mention the part where as soon as the promotion ended the sales dropped back to to where they were before. I would like to know if Toshiba is actually making any money on these machines. The same question would be interesting on the BD side as well.

Don't get me wrong I would prefer to see BD win as I think it is a better platform. But I am not invested in either and I won't be until I see signs that the war is ending. I want the war over one way or the other so that I can feel comfortable getting out there and spending.

I don't bother posting in here unless I see a post that is blatantly biased and playing fast and loose with the facts.

Hollywood content, rules worldwide.
Actually I believe Bollywood out sells Hollywood these days. I could be wrong though.
 
#29 ·
Will Sony, or its allies, step up to the plate? They may well do so: but so far there are no signs they will.
I don't expect to see big news out of BD on the player front until the spec is actually complete. There are a lot of manufacturers fully on the BD side that have done nothing so far. The only reason I can think of for that is the fact that the spec is not done yet. Unfortunately if BD hits the mark of October to finish the spec then any big player announcements won't happen until CES next spring. How these guys got so far off track is a mystery to me. But it could be a weird Xmas. The hot players on the HD-DVD side and the titles on the BD side.

If I am right then Toshiba needs to have won this war by the end of the Xmas season. If they haven't and the big titles are still on the BD side and there is a tidal wave of players at CEA then Toshiba could be in trouble.

The reason I am curious about margins is that spreading the losses out over many manufacturers means they can keep loosing money longer. If you think the head of Universal is taking heat just picture the head of Sony. Any studio still firmly on the BD side has to be putting a LOT of pressure on Sony to do some thing about the hardware prices.

You could be right Arthur Dent but I am having a hard time picturing it. BD's selling feature is it's extra features and space. If all the BD studios have to stop using that because they need to make their content work on HD-DVD then all there is left is price which would mean HD-DVD would win.
 
#30 ·
Those big titles may lose their exclusivity to BD tho if the players aren't out there and if it's not before spring, BD may very well lose Disney and others if the player install base isn't up to snuff and those low cost HD DVD players hit for thanksgiving and xmas.

Cal
 
#31 ·
If BD manufacturer's are waiting for Hallowe'en 2007 to determine the final BD specs; then announcing plans at Jan 2008 CES; we won't see "competitive" hardware from BD till fall 2008. By this time it may be moot.

I suspect studio heads at Lion's Gate, and Disney, will be in very hot water if they maintain BD exclusivity while their business continues to migrate away from theatrical release and SD DVD into premium markets like VOD and HD disks of one flavour or other. If Universal and Warner do well with HD DVD and dual format business plans, management at BD exclusive houses will be asked a lot of questions by shareholders.

The only ones with a vested interested in which format? are Sony and Toshiba (and, to a lesser extent, Warner due to DVD patents carried through to HD DVD). The consumer would rather not be involved; neither would the studios (except, again, perhaps Sony). The other BD manufacturer partners could just as easily become HD DVD manufacturers; they make drives and marking brand names; they don't care about this format or that.

This explains why BD manufacturer's have not followed either Toshiba or Sony; Samsung being the only exception taking some risks with lower priced players before the final BD spec is baked.

The winds of war are gathering; the strategy is being finalised; the arms machine being ramped up ... but what if only one side arrives to do battle this fall? It's still possible Toshiba and HD DVD will strongly out-sell on the hardware front in 2007 whilst the BD studios withhold titles and sit out the year. I doubt very much if any studio can afford to remain on the sidelines seven months from now. The HDNet report from CES 2008 should be exciting viewing indeed.
 
#34 ·
If BD manufacturer's are waiting for Hallowe'en 2007 to determine the final BD specs; then announcing plans at Jan 2008 CES; we won't see "competitive" hardware from BD till fall 2008. By this time it may be moot.
As I understand it, the specs fro BD profile 1.1 hae already been established. However, it will only be implemented (mandatory) for players released after Nov. Plus, some of today's players may be firmware upgradable to meet the profile...
 
#35 ·
Ya I just read some thing along those lines today as well. Along with the fact that Fox has been waiting for BD+ to be finalized before they release their content. As beta testing is now complete it means any one that wanted to make firmware that would work with the full spec has now had the chance to do so and test it. Which means it could be in the production lines shortly. This is ahead of my expectations but I am not convinced this will get any one new on the shelves by Xmas.

Sony is promising to have the price of their units down to $299USD by Xmas so the price difference isn't going to be as big as I thought.
 
#40 ·
http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-9693527-1.html?tag=blog.3

Last Friday we reported on a quote from TV Week that Sony President and COO Stan Glasgow said Sony had plans to cut prices on its Blu-ray players to $299 by the end of the year. Well, don't update your Christmas list just yet. According to a Sony representative, Glasgow was misquoted. What Glasgow said, apparently, was that he felt the $299 price would be the tipping point where the average consumer would start to consider buying a Blu-ray player. Indeed, the Sony spokesman went on to specify that the company has no plans to roll out a Blu-ray player at that price point in 2007. That makes a lot more sense considering that Sony just announced a $600 Blu-ray player for this summer, and Glasgow basically said the same thing in an interview with CNET in January.

While the clarification makes more sense, we're not quite sure if we agree with Glasgow's assessment that $299 will be a tipping point for Blu-ray. While the price of the player may not be prohibitive, you still need to buy Blu-ray movies to get a high-definition picture--and the idea of rebuying movies in HD seemed to bother a lot of CNET users in our Screening Room forum. On the other hand, $299 is probably the price point where it might start making sense to buy a standard format Blu-ray player over a $500 20GB PlayStation 3. No matter what, Blu-ray and HD DVD still have a ways to go before they can convince the average consumer to make the high-def jump.
 
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