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CNET Editor wishes HD-DVD to Surrender by September

17K views 164 replies 49 participants last post by  Gord Lacey 
#1 ·
Interesting item on CNET... Perhaps not wanting another repeat of the SACD/DVD-A debacle... CNET editor predicts, more like wishes, that HD-DVD would just bow out, for the sake of the survival of HD format itself.

Check out item #4: Seven tech predictions for '07
 
#3 ·
Since Sony is to blame for the format war, let the games begin.

This may be a war but it's between 2 third world countries.

Sales figures that Sony is boasting about are for the off-season. Plus the PS3 could be benefitting from the UMD-effect.

It's comical Sony will make movies for the UMD but not HD DVD.
 
#15 ·
That much is true, but it was developed outside of the DVD Forum and was originally an MPEG2-only recording system with no support for ROM discs. When the DVD Forum began to explore an HD sucessor to DVD, Sony et al tried to shove Blu-ray down their throat and refused to "explore" any kind of alternative of any sort. Since not all the members of the Forum had intellectual property interest in the Blu-ray format, they said "FU" and went on to develop HD DVD. There was *supposed* to be a format shoot-out of sorts, but the Blu-ray camp refused to participate.

One thing's for sure...today's Blu-ray is what it is because of HD DVD. Half the features that ended up in the standard weren't being considered until they were being considered for HD DVD. That includes AVC and VC-1 support, among many others.
 
#5 · (Edited)
It's more comical to make statements that Sony is solely to blame for the format war. There are a lot of people and companies to blame for this.

If anything, both sides of the format war are to blame for not coming to a non-exclusive format similar to the agreement that was reached for the introduction of the DVD. And we all know how well that turned out for EVERYONE. Resolving this format war stands to make the same benefits again.

BTW, David Carnoy who wrote the original CNET article referenced in Post #1, wrote a follow-up article explaining his "prediction" that HD-DVD will surrender to Blu-Ray:

http://reviews.cnet.com/4520-6449_7-6690707-1.html
 
#7 ·
thecooldude said:
Bill Hunt of The Digital Bits said all this on Thursday and added more on Friday.
From his Friday's notes:

" A surprising number of retailers and industry insiders expressed relief that we had finally said what they WANTED to say..."

I hope he was properly paid for his "analysis".

I'm sick of this war, too.
I'm even more sick of those "analysts" pretending to have discovered "the writing on the wall".

Diogen.
 
#8 ·
I hope he was properly paid for his "analysis".
Diogen.
Ah... Of course. If he would have concluded that, by some miracle, HD-DVD was going to come back, get support from all studios, regain its sales lead etc. then he would have been a saint.

Anybody saying anything good about Sony/Blu-ray is obviously on Sony's payroll... :rolleyes:

At least I agree with you on one thing; I too am getting tired of this war. I hope Universal does the right thing soon.
 
#11 ·
Though ethically I feel HD-DVD has the moral high ground here an Bill Hunt has also expressed similar views for years. I now do think that when I buy, and it is not going to be for a long time yet, that the chances are high that I will go Blu ray. But I really want to try to go a long as humanly possible with out buying either with the intent of punishing all of the parties involved.
 
#13 ·
U said:
Ah... Of course. If he would have concluded that, by some miracle, HD-DVD was going to come back...
I'd gladly take a lesson in objective analysis. But you don't qualify as teacher, sorry.
U said:
Anybody saying anything good about Sony/Blu-ray is obviously on Sony's payroll...
No. I don't think you get paid. ;)
U said:
At least I agree with you on one thing...
Then I definitely must have done something wrong...

Diogen.
 
#16 ·
Anybody who thinks Blu-ray is "winning" is a gambler. The only Blu-ray capable playback device that's selling is the PS3. What do you think all the other Blu-ray player manufacturers think of this? Panasonic in particular can't be terribly pleased with the situation, can they?

I still predict that Blu-ray movie sales will gradually start to slide as more PS3 games are released. You can't watch a movie if you're playing a game, and you can't play a game if you're watching a movie.
 
#17 ·
Can we get a cut-off date from Diogen, Johnny G and others who keep predicting that the PS3 "effect" doesn't matter? At first we were told it would never matter...it's just a game machine, then we're told it won't matter for long...it's just a game machine.

Give it up guys...HD-DVD has lost the momentum after only three months of PS3 availability. There's is no logical reason to assume the trend is going to reverse itself. Blu-ray stand alone players are only going to get closer in price to the HD-DVD players, and studio releases will continue to favour Blu-Ray based on studio support.

The only argument from the HD-DVD crowd now seems to be "wait and see." So the question I pose is, how long do we have to wait?
 
#20 ·
Boduho said:
Can we get a cut-off date from Diogen, Johnny G and others...
I'm really sorry to disappoint you, but I don't know.
I don't know who will win, when this will happen and whether this will happen at all.

What I do believe, is the BD vs. HD case is akin Conservative vs. Liberal, Bush vs. Iraq, abortion, stem cells etc. - it would be impossible to find an objective jury body to try this case. Everybody knows the issue inside out and has a definite opinion on the right and wrong side.

I believe in numbers (it's my background). If Sony claims 70% PS3 owners will use it as a BD player at the same time as for the 360 add-on it is about 7% - it is the same as claiming two plus two is five. You want to believe it - be my guest. You want me to believe it - it won't happen no matter how blu (;) ) in face you get arguing it.

The AACS compromise has advanced so much in the last two weeks, I start thinking it might get to the CSS level (completely broken). If this happens soon enough (this year), both formats will die, IMHO. Some studios seem to be already in the wait-n-see mood.

Too many variables, too many egos, too much bad blood between players.
Too many stupid and/or bought analysts, too many forums, too few rational opinions...

Diogen.
 
#22 · (Edited by Moderator)
I believe in numbers (it's my background). If Sony claims 70% PS3 owners will use it as a BD player at the same time as for the 360 add-on it is about 7% - it is the same as claiming two plus two is five. You want to believe it - be my guest. You want me to believe it - it won't happen no matter how blu (;) ) in face you get arguing it.
It doesn't matter how many PS3 users use their box for Blu-Ray? Who cares it it's 5% or 80%, the bottom line is that disc sales figures clearly show BD with a 2:1 edge for the past few months. This will determine the winner. Hopefully Universal and Toshbeta (;) )will figure that out soon as well and cut their losses...
 
#21 ·
I bought the PS3 primarily for games in the 1st week of December. But I also have purchased 3 BD movies in the past week and plan on buying The Prestige on Tuesday. The quality of the picture is that compelling that I am done with regular DVDs. I am now intent on building a BD library over time.

I am a ENTERTAINMENT enthusiast. My gaming platform has enabled me to experience HD movies way before I would have otherwise - probably by more than a year or two. Sony's Trojan horse (was skeptical of the strategy until just recently) worked in spades for me.
 
#23 ·
The question is; are PS3 owners buying Blu-ray discs because there aren't that many worthwhile games to buy? Therefore, they're looking for something to use their player with. I wonder if Blu-ray sales would be as high if the player was an add on like with the 360? Or, the corollary; would HD DVD be doing better if the player was integral to the 360?

Personally, I'm hoping HD-DVD will survive, only because I bought the add on for the 360. At this stage in the format war I was comfortable spending 200 dollars and taking a chance.
 
#25 ·
I like how people say "oh my god blu ray is winning because of PS3"

So what it's working and yes they forced the player to get a blu ray whether he uses it or not, its buisness and thats the way to market it. Good for sony they are playing the game wisely!

P.s. I like HD dvd but blu has an advantage in strategy being used.
 
#26 ·
I own a PS3 and still don't own a game. Nothing worth buying that I don't already own on the 360. Hopefully one day I will buy a game.

I've watched around 6-8 movies on Blu-Ray. Haven't been blown away yet. Sure, it looks good but no WOW factor yet.

More impressed with HD DVD.

Now, if I had a Pioneer Elite BD player, things would be different.
 
#27 ·
I still predict that Blu-ray movie sales will gradually start to slide as more PS3 games are released. You can't watch a movie if you're playing a game, and you can't play a game if you're watching a movie.
The people buying PS/3 for use a BD player are undoubtedly insignificant relative to all PS/3 sales, but they aren't relative to standalone sales. And there is no reason to believe these A/V PS/3 users will suddenly start gaming to any great extent.

And if the games are compelling enough to reduce BD movie watching to any great extent, then they are compelling enough to sell more PS/3, adding more incidental BD purchasers to the mix.

Gary
 
#30 ·
Yes, this guy (Carnoy) doesn't understand the difference (or lack thereof) between a 1080i and 1080p output. The source material is the same in both cases -- it is stored as interlaced fields. If the display's native resolution is 768 (which it is for the vast majority of sets already sold) then it gets down-rezzed anyway, so who cares; use 720p to better match input to the display's capabilities. If you've got one of the newer 1080p sets (with true 1080 native resolution) then a 1080i signal simply gets de-interlaced by the set; if you send it 1080p, then it skips the de-interlacing. A $4-5K set is likely to have as good a de-interlacing chipset as a $1K player; and maybe even better. About the only problem that could happen (blame Murphy) is that R&D didn't fully test 1080p, and without the delay introduced by the de-interlacer the audio will lage the video ever so slightly (nah, that wouldn't happen, would it?)

I honestly don't know what would happen if you had a CRT-based display capable of displaying 1080 scan lines. If it doesn't support 1080p then it's a moot point. Otherwise, the question is whether it would would de-interlace a 1080i signal prior to diplsaying it or keep it interlaced? My guess is it would de-interlace it, but I really don't know. In either case, how many CRT-based 1080p displays are out there, anyway?
 
#31 ·
Interesting enough I'm using a CRT at 1080i and watched a movie which would display in this resolution, however I too have not seen a wow factor but I did notice that there is a difference between dvd and blu ray. Now honestly my tv is probably cabable of upto 1280x760 lines of res, so I'm not seeing the full benefit of 1920x1080 + HDMI @ 1080p with all these i'm sure my blu ray ps3 player will give me the wow factor. (I hope anyway)

So my question am I not seeing 1080i on my set at all with the PS3? ANd am I understanding this correctly that I will not see a difference between 1080i and 1080p unless my hdmi connection changes from component and a new tv with higher true HD resolution as stated above?
 
#32 ·
I just don't get these PS3 arguments. I do agree that there are not that many good games on the platform and a lot of people, myself included, bought one with the intent of using it it primarily for movie watching. This being said, I don't understand the logic that says people will shy away from Blu-ray when good games come around. Are we saying that all of a sudden these guys will switch back to buying DVDs or something?
 
#37 ·
This being said, I don't understand the logic that says people will shy away from Blu-ray when good games come around. Are we saying that all of a sudden these guys will switch back to buying DVDs or something?
Because any person's time in front of the TV that's connected to the PS3 is limited - either by comfort, interest, or by time itself. My Fiancé's son plays XBOX 360 in his room from after dinner 'til bedtime almost every night. When he does watch a movie, he uses the main TV in the family room, despite the fact that he can watch a DVD on the 360.
 
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