CBHD was, until recently, know as CH DVD (China high definition DVD), enorth.com.cn noted.

A production line for DVD discs can be refitted to manufacture CBHD discs at a cost of US$800,000, much lower than the US$3 million needed to set up a BD disc production line, enorth.com.cn pointed out. (http://www.digitimes.com/systems/a20080727PD200.html)

With an average income of $2,000/year I simply just don't see how HD is even a factor in China. Even if these players are cheaper than BD you still need a TV set and decent sound to truly enjoy HD... Couple this to the rampant piracy rates in China (estimated at between 90% and 99%) which means studio won't be interested in releasing movies... This format doesn't stand a chance IMO.

Couple this to the rampant piracy rates in China (estimated at between 90% and 99%) which means studio won't be interested in releasing movies... This format doesn't stand a chance IMO.In the long run, it would probably be cheaper to simply adopt the actual BD format. They are creating their own war which they could easily loose and be costly as they'd be competing against a format that already has a few years ahead of them. I agree with U, the format doesn't really stand a chance!

This format is just a small varation of HD DVD so BD has no real lead in China in terms of technology.

...the format doesn't really stand a chance!A chance in what?
To beat BD or to survive?
If to beat BD, then where: in China or worldwide?

I agree, their chances to beat BD worldwide are slim. And I don't think they have this as a goal.
I believe the key argument in their strategy is population size. Just imagine, if you can sell something in China to a niche market of 10% you'll make more sales than there are households in North America, US and Canada combined! This is why no company can neglect this market; why China gets away with such blatant violations from copyright to human rights; etc.

I think China is trying to establish its own market/standard.
It will be cheaper to produce (HD DVD physical format, no real IP to talk about), will have all/most of the modern audio/video codecs (from both HD and BD), the West will stop b!tching about China taking away the market from Western manufacturers (e.g. BD players) and selling bootlegged movies - they will be sold in the CH-DVD format, not Blu-ray Disc format...

The West wants to minimize the fallout of what happens to them (West) when 1.3B people smarten up and don't jump on US command. Having different hidef video formats is one way of doing this... The question is what happens when China starts selling CH-DVD players in the West?

To summarize, this might be the first shot in the battle "Who will survive?" - West without China or China without the West?
I wouldn't bet on the outcome today...

EDIT:
1995 was one of the best years for Mercedes-Europe in (then) recent history. The country that was "at fault" - Russia.

it's not a war thing against blu-ray
they develop their own format to avoid to pay royalties to sony thats' it

The question is what happens when China starts selling CH-DVD players in the West?

Well that's just it... They can sell players all they want but I'm saying there won't be any movies to play on it. At least not legally...

The question is what happens when China starts selling CH-DVD players in the West?

The same thing will happen as when Toshiba sold players in the West...the studios won't support it and nobody will care.

They can sell players all they want but I'm saying there won't be any movies to play on it. At least not legally... First, when did China care about legality?
Second, studios want China as a market. Badly. Fox is going as far as selling their movies on DVDs for $3 and Warner for $1.5
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20061113-8207.html
Sony in their Financial Update specifically talks about BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) - hard to neglect half the world population...

There are essentially 3 possible outcomes: CH DVD kills BD; BD kills CH DVD; both live.
First is very unlikely. You think the second will take place due to movie availability.
I think the last will be more likely and studios will be happy to offer their "wares" in any format as long as they can sell it.

Time will tell.

The same thing will happen as when Toshiba sold players in the West...I hesitate to feed the troll here, but I will point out that (http://www.digitalhome.ca/forum/showthread.php?p=769016#post769016)
comparing one company to what a manufacturing giant
like China can do is a bit of an apple-to-oranges comparison...

The same thing will happen as when Toshiba sold players in the West...the studios won't support it and nobody will care.
China won't sell players to the West. Studios did support HD DVD and people did care but Sony wrote the largest cheque and won the war.

CH DVD is the offical format of China, picked by the government. I'm surprised they're even letting BD into the country.

All of this being said, what happens in China has no bearing upon us but it will be interesting to see what happens.

To your question; A chance in what?
To beat BD or to survive?
If to beat BD, then where: in China or worldwide?
here`s what I think the answer is;Taiwan-based drive makers generally believe CBHD will find it difficult to compete with Blu-ray Disc (BD) in the China market, according to industry sources.
when in your own market ground there is doubt, it is more likely bound to failure. U also had valid points when talking about the high piracy in this country!

if you can sell something in China to a niche market of 10% you'll make more sales than there are households in North America, US and Canada combined! I would agree with your above statement but the piracy rate makes it that much harder to even hit that low percentage target.

First, when did China care about legality?Good comment here! With this kind of example, why would any Chinese bother paying for this format when this format is created in order to avoid paying legitimate dues? If Chinese leaders feel they can be above legality, I feel Chinese as a whole would more likely feel the same and keep piracy very strong instead of buying/paying for any format even if Chinese (leading by example goes a long way!).

China won't sell players to the West. Studios did support HD DVD and people did care but Sony wrote the largest cheque and won the war.
... and from what we know of China, we can suspect they'll never write any big cheque since their main goal is to avoid giving anything away! Who knows, Sony might be able to buy some Chinese support if cheque is big enough? BD already has some ground, if the Chinese came with this a while back it could then might have been a different story and who knows could have even made a difference in the West it self?

Don't get me wrong, I sure wouldn't mind someone teaching Sony a lesson but I don't think this is possible when you play without or against the rules. I don't think you reap the opposite of what your seeds are. China ignore rules and therefore can not really expect to get any good out of it.

This will turn out exactly like VCD: alive and underground, but never a real consumer format.

Who knows, Sony might be able to buy some Chinese support if cheque is big enough?I strongly believe BD has a snowball's chance in hell to become anything more than SACD without Chinese manufacturing. Even simpler: Sony needs China more than the other way around.

So Sony (BD) is torn between two goals: make back the lost billion$ and turn BD profitable (i.e. keep prices high) or take a shot at killing DVD and making BD the de-facto standard for video on optical (i.e. reduce prices on everything BD). The second can't be done without China, I believe. And the fact they offered 11 Chinese companies to start player manufacturing next year proves it and shows they are leaning the second way.

I think BD players can be double digits $$ by next year end. That would leave no chance for CH DVD to make inroads almost anywhere.
If BDA keeps ripping of manufacturers like DVD Forum did with DVD players around the end of the 90's - CH DVD has a good chance even in the West.

BD will succeed when disc prices are single digits, player prices - double digits, and HDTV to easily see the difference - triple digits...

Hee hee, that was a fun throwback to 2007, wasn't it?

James99 is right. What happens there has no bearing on what happens here.

He he...

1% being able to buy it doesn't mean they will... Most people in Canada and US can afford Blu-Ray, but only about 10% of them get it. I think that's called "penetration rate". In any case, even if 1% do buy into that format it's still nothing to write home about. I mean, Sony has already sold more than 13M PS3's worldwide just to put this into perspective.

I was really hoping you could explain the emerging market stuff for some clueless folks such as myself... Please? :)

As I understand it the purpose of CH-DVD is to segregate the chinese market, so if CH-DVD is significantly comprimised the piracy won't spread internationally.

As I understand it the purpose of CH-DVD is to segregate the chinese market, so if CH-DVD is significantly comprimised the piracy won't spread internationally.That would be the case if the format were "forced" on China by the West. That is not true.
But I think you are right that Wester companies' excitement about CBHD is mainly for this reason.

BTW, a physical format can't be compromised.