The Toronto Star reported today on the possibility of Teius converting to GSM (http://www.thestar.com/article/293353)

I still believe it's a matter of "when", not "if".

I can't see Telus wasting money on deploying a GSM network when there is already a replacement for GSM on the horizon. I would expect them to wait for LTE and have a future-ready network.

They wouldn't have to install a whole new system. They already have co-location agreements with Rogers, and also keep in mind that Nokia-Siemens Networking or another manufacturer would probably swap out the gear for them for a turn-key price. Deckster, think of LTE as more of an evolution or progression from GSM than a wholesale change of technology, which nobody in the carrier business wants at this time.

How much would it cost them to replace every customers phone? They couldn't just swap out equipment, they would need to keep both networks running.

I realize LTE is a convergence technology that should allow GSM providers and CDMA providers to upgrade to a similar network, but if nobody in the carrier business wants a wholesale chane in technology why would Telus change to GSM?

They would have to let people out of contracts which would cost them millions.

My response is not about their business strategies, its in response to what you said about the effort to make such a switch being prohibitive, which I don't believe is necessarily as bad as one might think.

As for handsets, they are all subsidized to the nth degree right now anyways so it would just be a matter of phasing new sets in to consumers to coincide with the infrastructure cutovers.

The dollars and cents issues are all business strategy related, so we may or may not see anything come of this.

Telus going GSM does NOT mean theyre dismantling CDMA just YET. They might do overlay like what Rogers did when they built their GSM network, which was to install GSM cabinets at existing sites, sometimes they re-used TDMA antennas, some times they had to add new gsm antennas. Telus has towers already, they just have to add GSM cabinets to the existing sites, and SOMETIMES, not always, add a GSM antennas.

Telus may not even do this, they might go straight to WCDMA and/or LTE, overlay. Then they will SHUT DOWN CDMA once more than a certain percentage of people have switched over to the 2.5G / 3G / 4G what ever technology they chosen to stick with.

Globe today (http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080114.wtelusstaff0114/BNStory/Business/home)

Making such a jump, however, would be a tricky endeavour for Telus. It could cost anywhere from several hundred million up to a billion dollars, analysts reckon.

and

As the only GSM carrier in Canada, Rogers does very well. The company collects some $500-million a year from travellers who come to Canada and use their cellphones. As well, many Canadians who take frequent trips overseas and want to use their cellphones, sign up with Rogers.

Very interesting stuff. Even if it costs them a Billion, the could potentially make that up in a couple of years by stealing some business from Rogers.

If think they have just realized how much Olympic revenue in Vancouver that they are NOT going to get.

This also comes to show that all those crucial business decisions they made over the years to ignore the world standard GSM in favour of CDMA were wrong. I wonder what the Qualcomm people brought to the table so that Telus easily ignored the high price of CDMA handsets and lack of roaming revenue.

This also comes to show that all those crucial business decisions they made over the years to ignore the world standard GSM in favour of CDMA were wrong. I wonder what the Qualcomm people brought to the table so that Telus easily ignored the high price of CDMA handsets and lack of roaming revenue.
It was an easy sell. The network wasn't as advanced as it is now, capacity was an issue in areas, and spectrum was expensive.

CDMA offers much more spectral efficiency than TDMA (which was tried by Bell, I am assuming Telus as well), much better sound quality, and a promise of backward compatibility with analog (something GSM could not do).

I don't think that roaming revenue was very large since the decision wasn't to choose CDMA or GSM, it was CDMA or TDMA, and at the time all handsets were expensive.

Yeah, I guess compatibility with their analog network was a primary concern. Also, at the time when Rogers decided to switch to GSM, there already was GSM 850 Mhz standard, which made it easy for Rogers to convert its vast 800 Mhz analog spectrum to digital. That standard did not exist prior to that, when Telus considered which digital standard to choose. If they had chosen GSM, they would have had to use only the 1900 Mhz band for GSM.

They have been talking internally about the need to move for a long time. I am surprised if they have finally gotten past the talking stage. There seems to be a fair bit of movement down in the US to GSM which will be one of the drivers for this.

I have been looking at Rogers as a way to get to GSM but I'll be damned if I can figure out how their rates actually work. So maybe I will wait for TELUS to come around.

A question with regards to roaming revenue - sure Telus would pickup GSM roaming revenue, but would they not be giving up CDMA roaming revenue from lots of US customers? What is the market share in the US of CDMA vs. GSM? What portion of visitors to Canada would be using GSM vs. CDMA given that the large majority of visitors to Canada are coming from the US?

They would still keep the CDMA service running so there would be no loss in revenue from US roaming.

They would still keep the CDMA service running so there would be no loss in revenue from US roaming.But for how long? They would likely shut down CDMA eventually, just as Rogers has.

This might also explain the Telus+iPhone rumours a while back ...

Iain.

I really can't see this happening, but pondered on a couple of points when I heard the rumour;

1. Telus planning a Canuckistan iPhone hi-jack, since greedy Ted's evidently not willing to drop his data plan margins.

2. Hungry GSM/UMTS vendor e.g. ERICSSON offering free or dirt-cheap footprint in the hope of extending market share and making it up on the eventual LTE upgrades. Note that ERICY did use this strategy to convice Telstra (Australia) to drop CDMA in favour of GSM a couple of years ago.

There are a lot of negatives (cost of network & handsets) to building a network overlay right now, without significant subsidization e.g. (2) above.

Note that in the States, Verizon has already signaled intent to migrate to LTE and will begin technology trials later this year. #1 reason for going LTE was global roaming revenue, which apparetly adds as much as $500M to Ted's coffers annually.

Also note that ATT and T-Mo will obviously go LTE in the States, leaving Sprint the poor orphan and technology island if it pursues its Wimax dream (not going to happen, common sense will prevail).

As some may already know, GSM and CDMA converge at 4G, since LTE is essentially an extension of UMTS i.e. Wideband or W-CDMA. Since NT/ALU and other vendors are developing evolution plans for their current deployments, a high-cost switch-out now only gives the operator a couple/three years to enjoy his new toy until he has to spend again for the 4G build-out.

Things that make you go hmmm :)

I thought Nortel sold their UMTS business to ALU awhile back?

http://telephonyonline.com/finance/news/alcatel_nortel_umts_090106/

Anyways I think the UMTS route is the most logical route for a wholesale overlay / change. This gives them a cheaper entry into LTE...

I think Rogers is using UMTS / HSDPA already....

Does anyone think a TELUS move to GSM may make a dent in the high prices for air time? I got my GSM phone unlocked for $15, and now with the right SIM card I can use it anywhere. If TELUS goes GSM, anyone with an unlocked phone can switch from network to network as long as they have a SIM card for each. Wouldn't that place pressure on prices?

I used my unlocked phone in Hong Kong and China over Christmas for the equivalent of $C8 for a sim card and 3 weeks of casual usage.

Ricketty