1) you have inside info on Warner sales, do you?
2) you really think that net sales for single disc 300 and multi-disc Planet Earth convinced Warner that Blu-ray is a slam dunk?



Disney consistently votes for HD DVD improvements which challenge Blu-ray. Disney consistently says it wants to develop revenue streams based on HDi like models.



Go for it. Spin away.

I have no chips on this horse. I do have some insight into what motivates corporations, senior executives and in-the-trenches managers ... and, on balance, Blu-ray has one saviour: Warner dropping HD DVD in three weeks at CES in Las Vegas. Otherwise, the war of attrition kicks in and HD DVD, frankly, wins ... and before Xmas 2008.
HDDVD cant win a war of attrition. There are too many manufacturers supporting bluray, and the onslaught of "HDTV+BD player" bundles, along with dropping standalone prices, will be a big factor. Also, BD-player HTIB could be a possibility in 08, something toshiba (onkyo aside) cant really match. BD also has many many more companies jumping on board such as Mitsubishi, and several european and chinese companies.

Secondly, as big a factor as the PS3 has been, it will only grow in importance considering sales are much, MUCH better than they were at the early part of the year, and they will improve throughtout 08 as the real big titles come out. Theres also the smaller effect of SDTV ps3 owners migrating to HDTVs.

Yes PS3 owners split their time between PS3 games and movies. But you really thinkg standalone users have nothing better to do than watch movies? Maybe they own other consoles, or a PC, or have a family, or like watching tv shows, or play sports, etc. That argument isnt very strong IMO. People who love movies, will buy movies, period. Being a standalone owner does not make you more dedicated by default.

HDDVD has always touted their lower price advantage. But it hasnt gotten them any real advantage at all. Standalone player sales are neck and neck, and the PS3 is handily outselling xbox-360 add ons. Bluray player prices are approaching HDDVD prices in the all-important US market. SO what do they do then? Give them away for free in cereal boxes?

And lets not even get started in Europe (3:1), Australia (4:1) and Japan (9:1) (Note: these are DISC sales ratios in favour of BD). A war of attrition is easily in blu-rays favor.

That includes extras, IME and, possibly, the Internet. 100% of HD DVD users have that available; none of Blu-ray stand-alone users have all that available; future Blu-ray and part-time gamer PS3 users may have that available

The thing is that this has always been (and will likely continue) to be a very small component of movie watching unit. I have yet to hear anyone tell me they refuse (or will refuse) to buy a movie they like because it doesn't have extras, internet, interactivity. People want to watch the movie. That's what really matters. The other stuff is fluff and quite honestly of very small consequence. So I can appreciate that these items are ones that many feel HD DVD excels in relation to Blu-ray, but it is such a small thing that it's simply not this big pivotal issue you keep trying to beat into everyone. It just isn't and in all likelyhood will never be.

Jim Noonan, Warner Bros. Senior Vice President and General Manager also confirmed this information.
The CEO himself could say it, it doesnt mean its 100% true. They will continue to deny exclusivity until the day it becomes offcial, even if its been months in planning ala Paramount.

And lets not even get started in Europe (3:1), Australia (4:1) and Japan (9:1) in favour of BD. A war of attrition is easily in blu-rays favor.

Do they favour it or is it just the PS3 sales talking? Did they buy the console to watch movies or just to play games. Do they even own HDTV's? Those ratio's are too speculative, I'd like to see actual disc sales per region. Who's to say they won't start buying HD DVD players?

Both formats are still in their infancy stage.

Those are disc sales ratios in other markets.

The fact that both formats are in their infancy is irrelevant. The last thing studios/consumers/retailers want is a long format war.

The fact that both formats are in their infancy is irrelevant. The last thing studios/consumers/retailers want is a long format war.
No it's not. It's very important. WB is more concerned about sales 6 years from now (when DVD is almost dead) than 6 months from now when 1% of the potential customer base exists. By ditching a format before its dead (if that ever happens) is bad business.

I received an email today stating: we are compiling some late-breaking information that appears to be VERY exciting. Look out for it - it's a doozy... Something about a major BD studio going "neutral"! I think somebody is blowing smoke but it's from a decent source.

Also, I'm happy with the war. Current customers have benefitted hand over fist.

Many analysts/consumers/execs feel both formats can co-exist.

I received an email today stating: I think somebody is blowing smoke but it's from a decent source.
Isn't that from the HDNow guy? I've heard he's worse than Beatboy.

No it's not. It's very important. WB is more concerned about sales 6 years from now (when DVD is almost dead) than 6 months from now when 1% of the potential customer base exists. By ditching a format before its dead (if that ever happens) is bad business.

I received an email today stating: I think somebody is blowing smoke but it's from a decent source.

Also, I'm happy with the war. Current customers have benefitted hand over fist.

Many analysts/consumers/execs feel both formats can co-exist.

6 years is a bit much. They will stick with a format as long as it looks to be profitable in the next year or so. DVD sales are already flat and falling from what I have read. Only new titles are selling, so moving to HD media might get the ball rolling for catalogue titles, but that wont work with 2 formats IMO.


That 'rumor' is from HDnow, a HDDVD fanboy's blog apparently.

Bluray player prices are approaching HDDVD prices in the all-important US market. SO what do they do then? Give them away for free in cereal boxes?Hmm, isn't it exactly what most BD CE's are doing right now? Free BD player with an HDTV.

As far as a long drawn out war, that is true, it is not good for any of the studios, CE manufacturers, and an any other entities downstream on that distribution chain. But, it is great for the customer in the short and long range. Anyone remember the days of the VHS/Beta wars, a blank VHS tape always cost 25% to 50% less than a Beta tape, and whenever Sony dropped the prices, VHS manufacturers matched. Once VHS manufacturers reached a critical point in mass production, they started to drop the prices until Sony couldn't/wouldn't match anymore. Fast forward to 2007, Sony is giving away BD titles (through BOGO) and has a 4:1 lead in BD capable players, yet they still only maintain a 2:1 lead in overall title sales.

1) you have inside info on Warner sales, do you?
2) you really think that net sales for single disc 300 and multi-disc Planet Earth convinced Warner that Blu-ray is a slam dunk?

1) No need for inside info, numbers have been reported in the media for some movies like "300" and "The Departed" as about 2:1 in favor of Blu-Ray. Google it if you are so inclined.
2) Warner has released many movies in both formats and what I'm saying is that whichever format sold the most will certainly be part of the equation in choosing a side, if it ever comes to that. I don't have information on all movies but the ones we do know about seem to show BD as the one that sells the most.


Disney consistently votes for HD DVD improvements which challenge Blu-ray. Disney consistently says it wants to develop revenue streams based on HDi like models.


Yes and all of that stuff is possible using BD-J too.


Go for it. Spin away.


I will... I don't want you to be alone :D


I have no chips on this horse.

LMAO! Nice try ;)

When I said I have "no chips on this horse" of course I was speaking rhetorically. I certainly have an opinion about how all the balls in the air will land; but I have nothing to gain or lose if I'm wrong. I'm pleased it gave you a chuckle. ;)

When the Warner SVP spoke to the Toronto meet recently, he didn't give any hint that the studio planned to drop anything in the near term. Obviously, he'd say status quo; but there was nothing in the very frank discussions over the five hour session to suggest otherwise.

I accept Paramount's CTO reasoning for why the studio pulled back from Blu-ray at this time. But I do find it odd that they would not release their biggest new releases in both formats. That goes equally for Disney and Sony; they are leaving significant dollars on the table. But then, this whole mess is the result of trying to set-up a de facto cartel (oops, "consortium") and finding it fell to pieces when a few folks wouldn't join in.

I'll be very interested to see what the real scoop is at CES2008 -- on the floor and in the back rooms.

They are leaving spare change on the table today compared to the mega bucks potential of a sole "winning" format. It IS time to pick sides since it is now impossible for all titles to be available on both formats (which was, perhaps, nothing more than a pipe dream anyway).

Johnny, I couldn't agree more! That's exactly why Warner will turn blu in 2008 IMO. They need the mega bucks associated with people switching formats and that is only going to happen when there is a clear winning format. Unless they can convince Fox and/or Disney to follow them to the Dark Side...

"Warner says its not Going Blu-ray Exclusive"

There is also Bill Clinton that said "I did not have sexual relations with that woman"
There is also Richard Nixon that said "I'm not a crook"
There is also Napoleon that said "I will win at Waterloo"
There is also Bobby Petrino that said "I will not go back to college Football and will be the coach of the Atlanta Falcons next year"


I can go on and on and on :D but you get my point...

Where there is smoke, there is fire and, right now, there is a heck of a lot of smoke :D

The latest on this:

Mike Dunn (Fox - President) : "I think by CES it will be pretty clear there will be one format.”

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117977725.html?categoryId=13&cs=1

The thing is that this has always been (and will likely continue) to be a very small component of movie watching unit. I have yet to hear anyone tell me they refuse (or will refuse) to buy a movie they like because it doesn't have extras, internet, interactivity. People want to watch the movie. That's what really matters. The other stuff is fluff and quite honestly of very small consequence.

At the recent forum in Toronto, we were told that the average movie disc buyer spends 45 min on "extras". That was the SVP from Warner Bros, I believe, who said that. I'm not sure if that was: all SD DVDs; only SD DVDs that have extras; or hidef discs with extras. Many discs with extras don't have extras lasting longer than 45 min. So whichever way you slice that, extras actually DO matter to consumers.

And an interesting sidenote: extras matter to the directors and movie folk making the features. Maybe that's part of their legacy. More movies are being planned with extras as part of the production budget; Christopher Nolan's Batman Begins was cited as an example. No wonder that example of IME is as content rich as it is.

So the average person that actually looks at any extras will spend 45 minutes doing so. The majority of people likely never look at any extras.

Mike Dunn (Fox - President) : "I think by CES it will be pretty clear there will be one format.”

The same article:

“We have to ensure that high-def takes hold and breaks out of the niche business,” [Warner's Ron] Sanders says.

He believes the key to success will be to emphasize consumer benefits of high-def, drawing attention away from the format war.

and, following the Mike Dunn comment:

Others aren’t certain the battle will be resolved so quickly. Earlier this month, Adams Media Research and sister research outfit Screen Digest projected that both formats would co-exist at near parity for several years to come.

Adams forecast that in 2012, standard DVD discs would generate $10 billion in consumer sales Stateside, and HD DVD and Blu-ray would each generate $5 billion, with Screen Digest projecting a slightly greater edge to Blu-ray globally.

As you suggest:

there is a heck of a lot of smoke

... but Warner, a studio committed to movies, and still run by folks who love the movies, is likely to make decisions based on long-term strategy and internal metrics (how did 300 do? how did Planet Earth do? how did Harry Potter do? how did Blade Runner do?) and not on whether this game console or another sell in 2007. Or how one format or another did vs. the other based on skewed figures in which Disney, Sony, Fox and others released Blu-ray vs. HD DVD in a 100:0 ratio.

So the average person that actually looks at any extras will spend 45 minutes doing so. The majority of people likely never look at any extras.

If the people who look at extras buy 10 discs a year; and the people who never look at extras buy 1 disc a year and rent 2 discs a year ... extras might be important.

If the "majority of people" is 51% and the "extras" looking people is 49% ... is it worth ignoring?

My point: do you have some useful reference to show the relevancy of your claim that "The majority of people likely never look at any extras"? Warner describes itself as a "packaged goods company" and everything inside the box which drives more sales is relevant. The "prize inside" a cereal box has nothing to do with nutrition; but it sells corn flakes. If extras sell more movies, Warner will listen. If internet interactivity sells more movies, Warner will listen. And so will Disney.

SP, the answer to your question is obvious.

If extras don't matter than how does one explain the countless special editions of DVDs that exist today?

If they didn't sell, they woudln't be making them.

Hooray for Warner Bros. Glad this is put to rest - hopefully the next announcement from Warners will be they are considering going HD DVD exclusive ;) Long live HD DVD !
Dave