Talking about week one sales.

I don't think it will be able to beat the combined 1st week sales of 300. There are just too many other movies out there for sale these days and too many other things going on. 300 had it's time almost to itself.

But 300 didn't come out during the XMAS holiday season. Plus, more players exist today thanx to price cuts covering both colours.

Measuring sales will be tricky since many folks are buying the whole boxset.

Yep the box set as well will complicate it too. I know i'm buying the set.

I don't think so, unless they count the box set as previously mentioned. I know I'll buy the box set and not the individual title.

The dvd set may be, but I doubt the HD and blu-ray. Not every family has HD and Blu-ray player, and that of course plays a role in this, as you need these player in order to watch hi-def versions

Nope, I don't think i'm buying it. Consumer confusion setting in lol

Will rent though.

The woman is rich enough as it is :D

I don't think so.

As Ratatouille, Cars and Shrek have all proven content aimed at the younger crowds doesn't do as well in HD as the scifi and fantasy stuff.

While I'm sure the DVD sales will be 2nd only to Transformers, HDM sales will probably be somewhere between Transformers and Ratatouille like sales IMO.

But this movie is available for both formats so it has a fighting chance against the Disney titles. We shall see soon enough.

It's also competing against Bourne.

I think it will likely sell more than the 115,000 Transformers sold in it's first week and will be the #2 combined biggest selling title in week one after 300.

This is just my feeling though and I would be very happy if it did prove me wrong and become #1. I guess it does have a better chance at being the #1 if they count all 4 SKU's (Blu and Red sets and also Blu and Red single movies).

Even if it sold at the same rate as Ratatouille (about 65,000 in week 1) it wouldn't be even close to enough combined with HD-DVD to sell more than 300 since 65,000 x 1.5 = ~ 100,000 (well short of the 200,000+ for 300).

I think it will likely sell more than the 115,000 Transformers sold in it's first week and will be the #2 combined biggest selling title in week one after 300.

You mean 190,000 (but that's a subject for another thread).

I'm just curious to see the split between Blu-ray and HD DVD.

There are so many more total HDDVD+Bluray players out there that the potential userbase is a lot bigger than in 300's release week.

All lets not forget that Harry Potter has an amazingly large fanbase. OoTP did about $80million more Domestic over $400million foreign more at the box office than 300.

"Better movie selection" now is offset entirely by the fact that its the holiday season IMO.

Will be interesting to see if the Potter hype can pull this through... I personally don't think so, but I have been proven wrong many times over by Potter fans :)

"According to Nielsen VideoScan, all three Harry Potter DVDs/videos – Sorcerer’s Stone, Chamber of Secrets, and Prisoner of Azkaban – debuted at #1 and remained the #1 family film for the first 3 weeks of each release. “Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban” (Warner Home Video, released 11/23/04) was the #1 selling family video, and #4 video regardless of category, in all of 2004. “Harry Potter And The Chamber Of Secrets” (Warner Home Video, released 4/11/03) was the #4 selling video in 2003 and the #3 family video in 2003. “Harry Potter And The Sorcerers Stone” (Warner Home Video, released 5/28/02) was the #3 selling video in 2002 and was the #2 family video in 2002." (http://www.marketresearchworld.net/index.php?option=content&task=view&id=1454&Itemid=)

The prime advantage Potter has is that it will be a Warner release. Had Paramount stayed neutral, I don't think it would have been close to Transformers...

You mean 190,000 (but that's a subject for another thread).
DOnt even get started on that ridiculous number

Harry Potter movies are in their essence kid's movies... and lots of kids get presents for Christmas (I think, ... at least I did ;) )... I think it has a fighting chance, but outside of the holiday season, no way.

Another interesting tidbit I noted - according to box office mojo, the box office for this movie was slanted heavily in favour of foreign markets (approx 69 to 31). I wonder if this will affect the overall sales of this movie since much of the HD war outside of NA is more heavily Blu... Some we won't see reflected in the Neilsen numbers though

Harry Potter is a kid's movie, but it has a lot of appeal with adults too. Combined with the holiday factor, I think this one has the potential to be the best selling HD title ever.

As for ratios, there's no reason to expect that the long-standing 2:1 in favour of BD will be any different for the Potter films.

As for ratios, there's no reason to expect that the long-standing 2:1 in favour of BD will be any different for the Potter films.
I suspect the same, but I'm wondering if we'll see any of the $98 factor in there at all. We shall see.