Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe vowed Thursday — in the wake of the deaths of three Quebec-based soldiers this week — to bring down the Conservative government if it does not commit to a full troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2009. (http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2007/08/23/qu-response.html)

Wow, this is political opportunism at its finest! Take a tragedy and use for political advantage.

Am I being too cynical? Could Duceppe not have not done this six months ago if it really was a moral issue?

I'm in favour of both troop withdrawal and bringing down the Conservative government. And even I find that this is a disgusting act by Duceppe. He knows that the Afghanistan is massively unpopular in Quebec, and now that a Quebec regiment has been posted to Afghanistan and is taking casualties he has decided it is time to act, and try and use their deaths for his political gain.

He would not have done this 6-months ago, because Quebeckers (and particularly Quebecois) were not dying. Now that they are, he has something to gain.

Duceppe's actions border on sedition. By making his announcement just after the death of 3 Quebeckers, he has made it clear to the Taliban - Canada's enemy, who we are at war with - that the more Quebecker's they kill, the more likely Canada will pull out. This will surely put the lives of our troops in even more danger.

Charles Dubois a Quebec news "celebrity" was also seriously injured. This guy is a household name so I expect major fallout here. Its the Quebec press that will hurt the federal government more than the opposition.

To be fair to Duceppe, this has always been the position of the BQ. The NDP wants them out now. I disagree with both positions and I personally find Duceppe to be completely without honour and integrity ... but his position, in this case, is not new.

The war should be unpopular in Quebec. It should be unpopular in all of Canada. Our soldiers are doing thousands of miles away on battlefields that have little nexus to being Canadian. However, it doesn't mean the war isn't right and that we shouldn't be there, but I don't have a problem with it being unpopular and at least, for once, Duceppe is being consistent.

Aren't the troops already scheduled to pull out in 2009 anyway?

The motion passed in Parliament authorizing deployment expires in early 2009 and the mission would need to be formally extended. The original troop request from NATO was until 2009 with the expectation that the mission would be fulfilled or that other NATO members would step up if not. Frankly, neither seems probably at this point. I do not believe Parliament's approval is technically necessary, but in a minority government a confidence motion could certainly called if the government extended the mission without Parliamentary approval.

In any event, I'd be shocked if we don't have an election sometime in 2008.

In any event, I'd be shocked if we don't have an election sometime in 2008.That depends entirely if the Bloc is prepared to prop up the government or not. I don't think an election is in the Bloc's best interest either - at best they would maintain the status quo, but much more likley they would either lose seats, or end up with a Liberal/NDP coalition. At the moment they can pull the Tories strings on any Quebec issues, and have more influence than any time since before they originally left the Tory party. I suspect Harper will cave to the Bloc on Afghanistan, because it will keep him in power.

I think the government will want to go to the polls sometime in 2008. This is a long time for a minority government. The longer it stays in power, the more opportunity the Liberals have of rebuilding electoral strength.

They will call an election if they find a policy mix that generates real traction in the polls or the Liberals do something to really step in it and put M. Dion on the defensive. The BQ doesn't want an election because they face a serious risk of losing strength, especially with the disarray in their provincial counterparts.

The only party that needs to avoid an election at any cost is the NDP. Jack in the Box has been completely exposed, has no credibitlity with the electorate, and the NDP faces serious trouble in an election. There won't be a Liberal/NDP coalition because the NDP will be less than 12 seats and most likely a non-entity.

M. Duceppe may threaten to bring down the government, but I suspect he's not anxious for an election and will take a step back to a position of saying that the mission must end and if the government attempts to extend, he'll brind them down then.

I think the government will want to go to the polls sometime in 2008. This is a long time for a minority government. The longer it stays in power, the more opportunity the Liberals have of rebuilding electoral strength.

They will call an election if they find a policy mix that generates real traction in the polls or the Liberals do something to really step in it and put M. Dion on the defensive.
I don't think they dare to call an election, unless the opposition blocks money bills, which is tantamount to a non-confidence vote anyways. Whoever is seen as forcing an election will be punished by voters. If I were Harper, I'd cut another percent off the GST for the 2008 budget and basically dare the opposition to vote against the budget.

I would also hold a free vote on extending the Afghan mission, knowing full well that it will be a resounding "NO". Canadian troops WILL be withdrawn from Afghanistan in 2009; no if's and's or's but's. It will either be done unwillingly by a Conservative government, or enthusiastically by a Liberal government after the Conservative government is defeated if it refuses to withdraw. By a GST cut in 2008, and withdrawl from Afghanistan in 2009, Harper could hang on until the scheduled date of Monday, October 19, 2009.

The only party that needs to avoid an election at any cost is the NDP. Jack in the Box has been completely exposed, has no credibitlity with the electorate, and the NDP faces serious trouble in an election. There won't be a Liberal/NDP coalition because the NDP will be less than 12 seats and most likely a non-entity.
Remember how a two-way vote split on the right between PC and Reform kept Chretien in power all those years? Imagine a THREE-WAY vote split on the left between Liberals and NDP and Greens. Steve Harper could be PM for a while, yet.

As long as Dion is around, I don't think Harper has anything to fear. That being said, Harper could call an election in 2008 or late 2007 (assuming the fixed election date legislation doesn't make it through the Senate). As far as Duceppe goes, he is a separatist that didn't threaten to overthrow the government at any point when other Canadian casualties were happening. He is a crass political opportunist who is still trying to recover from his recent faux pas of taking over the PQ.

Political parties all behave as crass opportunists. I believe any of today's party leaders would force an election if they were sure they'd gain significantly in the resulting election.

Harper would do it if he thought he would win a majority.
Dion would do it if he thought he could replace Harper.
Layton would do it if he could gain the balance of power.
Duceppe would do it if he could reverse his party's slide in the polls.


And anyone losing ground would scream that the guy pulling the trigger is a crass opportunist. That's the game.

Ricketty

The only party that needs to avoid an election at any cost is the NDP. Jack in the Box has been completely exposed, has no credibitlity with the electorate, and the NDP faces serious trouble in an election. There won't be a Liberal/NDP coalition because the NDP will be less than 12 seats and most likely a non-entity.What an odd comment ... NDP have been polling similiar numbers as to what they got in the last election ... well everyone has really, except Green who are growing. I don't recall anything happening with the NDP of late - did something happen while I was on vacation?

Remember how a two-way vote split on the right between PC and Reform kept Chretien in power all those years?
It was a three-way split between PC, Reform, and Bloc. The Bloc and Reform were both formed by renegade Tories at the end of the Mulroney government. But also Chretien should get a lot of credit for being able to govern quite effectively from such a low profile, dodging a lot of major stuff that Martin just couldn't pull off.

Imagine a THREE-WAY vote split on the left between Liberals and NDP and Greens. Steve Harper could be PM for a while, yet.Hmm, but are the Greens splitting the Liberal vote or the Tory vote? They are right of the Liberals - their environmental policies may look left-wing, but their fiscal policies don't. Besides, the Bloc is still splitting the right-wing vote.

With the polls sitting near where they were 18 months ago, I don't think an election is in anyone's interest. I wouldn't be suprised if Harper tries to string the thing out for 4 years - the longer he is there, the longer people will forget where he stands on all those nasty neo-conservative issues that he's trying to ignore while in a minority position.

The first time anything positive happens with the Conservatives that catches the imagination of Canadians we will have an election, probably before the bloc calls one? (They would have to make friends quick)
His one and only headline should be bloc want to separate Quebec from Canada.
As he has said himself the bloc will use " anything " to this end.

It was a three-way split between PC, Reform, and Bloc.
How many ridings did the Liberals win where the combined Reform+Bloc vote was greater than the Liberal vote? None that I'm aware of.

The Bloc and Reform were both formed by renegade Tories at the end of the Mulroney government.
Totally different stories...

The BQ members who separated were mostly seperatists who had recently joined the PC Party for opportunistic reasons. They never were real Conservatives.
Reform was formed by long-time "small-c" conservatives who viewed Mulroney as a Liberal in disguise.


Hmm, but are the Greens splitting the Liberal vote or the Tory vote? They are right of the Liberals - their environmental policies may look left-wing, but their fiscal policies don't.
I think that even the NDP realize that Bob Rae's "spend our way to prosperity" mantra is financial suicide. The Liberals, NDP, and Greens are all proclaiming themselves as "greener than Harper".

Besides, the Bloc is still splitting the right-wing vote.
Hack, gasp, splutter, cough.