Comcast has announced tivo software on their stbs. Since i believe they offer motorola boxes, what is the chance that shaw will roll something like this out for the 64xx series?
http://ces.engadget.com/2007/01/08/comcast-showing-off-tivo-powered-dvr/
I'm guessing its slim to nil.

Actually, I don't think it's automatically out of the question. I think it will depend on several factors (a lot of which will be wait and see what Comcast's experience is).

First, if it drives further adoption of HD hardware by Comcast customers, Shaw will look at it. There's no question that the recent surge in HD saturation has made it possible to turn a profit off of HD (something that couldn't be said a year ago). Therefore, if profits are to be made and TiVo's software will increase saturation, Shaw will look at it.

Second, how buggy will Comcast's implementation be? If it causes a lot of problems, Shaw (and other Canadian cablecos) will be reticent to look at it. The business drivers are different. This is a direct effort by Comcast to target DirecTV. Shaw really isn't too concerned about BEV and won't consider that it needs to improve it's UI by adopting a whole set of other problems because the competitive landscape is different.

The third issue is cost. Shaw is paying a little more than $500 landed for a 6416. That means that they can't sell (unless they subsidize) for much less than they currently are (given their commitment to their retail channel not to undercut them). However, a price increase in hardware isn't going to serve Shaw's interest so unless the TiVo enabled STB is price equivalent to the 6416, I don't see Shaw adopting it..

I would definitely pay about 5 bucks a month for the great Tivo software. I was actually considering the expensive Tivo Series 3, but I don't think I would get enough OTA HD to make it worthwhile.

I would definitely pay about 5 bucks a month for the great Tivo software.

So would I. It's definitely a slick application.