I think we are seeing a major shift in usage, similar to past upheavals in the computing industry. People will be using small wireless devices based on a portable OS, instead of PCs, for working, communicating, playing and information gathering. Goodbye Windows, hello Android.
That probably explains why I have such a hard time logging in to HTCSense. They even sent me an email after I complained about it and that's what they had mentioned. They said there system couldn't handle the extra amount of new subscribers to the system. They apologized and said they were working on it.
That's about right. If 180 million are sold in 2011 as predicted then that's about half a million a day. Since they were selling less than half a million a day for almost half a year then they will have to exceed that in the second half.
I think the analysts have also underestimated the market share of Android and iOS and overestimated WP7 and BB share.