HD DVD sales now at 998,059 - Canadian TV, Computing and Home Theatre Forums
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post #1 of 22 (permalink) Old 2007-04-26, 02:27 PM Thread Starter
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HD DVD sales now at 998,059

Expect the press release for 1 million units any day now.
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post #2 of 22 (permalink) Old 2007-04-26, 03:29 PM
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No matter. HD DVD folks don't put much if any stock in disc sales.

Cal

Last edited by calvin940; 2007-04-26 at 03:38 PM.
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post #3 of 22 (permalink) Old 2007-04-26, 04:13 PM
 
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Just bought 2 more so we are now at 998,061 haha
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post #4 of 22 (permalink) Old 2007-04-26, 04:48 PM
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Originally Posted by james99 View Post
Expect the press release for 1 million units any day now.
Also look for a BD press release that they have hit the 5 million mark...LOL!!
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post #5 of 22 (permalink) Old 2007-04-26, 06:30 PM
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hd-dvd-to-blu-ray-oh-yeah-well-weve-sold-a-lot-of-discs-too

Ha ha.. Sometimes these guys are just too funny...

http://www.engadget.com/2007/04/26/h...-of-discs-too/
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post #6 of 22 (permalink) Old 2007-04-26, 11:35 PM
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While it is true that it doesn't matter much if BD sells 1m disks and HD sells 0.8m disks in a given period when the content playing field isn't level (ie. latest big hits vs. latest big hits available equally in both formats); it will matter more as time goes by that BD sells as many stand-alone players, or more, than the HD camp. And I don't mean 100k vs 80k. I mean 4m BD players vs 3 or 4 or 5m HD players.

If and when the installed base of stand-alone players tilts dramatically one way or the other, that's a signal. At this early stage, disk sales are less telling.

I am speculating, of course: but I think anyone buying a new Blu-Ray or HD DVD stand alone player to hook up to his shiny (relatively) new HD widescreen TV is likely to be willing to fork out for 3 to 10 disks over the first two to 6 months of ownership. If one format takes a significant lead in hardware, disk sales will follow and that trend will encourage further disk title manufacture.

I will be very interested to see the release schedule of the Blu-Ray/HD DVD disks for Sep & Oct 2007.
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post #7 of 22 (permalink) Old 2007-04-26, 11:51 PM
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Originally Posted by calvin940 View Post
No matter. HD DVD folks don't put much if any stock in disc sales.

Cal
You mean like how BD folks don't put much stock in attach rates?
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post #8 of 22 (permalink) Old 2007-04-26, 11:57 PM
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You mean like how BD folks don't put much stock in attach rates?
The HD DVD community seemed to unanimously discount the BD reaching 1 Million disc sales as anything of consequence. As such, if we consider that group to be non-hypocritical, they should not care about the HD DVD disc sales either.

As for attach rates, my personal belief is that they are important, but the HD DVD group once again plays both sides of the fence. BD group says we have 4 million players, HD DVD group says "yeah, but the attach rate .. blah blah blah". OTOH, BD groups says we sold 1 Million discs, HD DVD group says well ya, but you have 4 Million players (reference to attach rate now nowhere to be found). You simply cannot play it that way.

Cal
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post #9 of 22 (permalink) Old 2007-04-27, 12:10 AM
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It's not that simple. If Disney sells 100,000 disks of Blu-Ray and 30,000 disks of HD DVD, of course they would be idiots to ignore shipping more Blu-Ray disks.

But the reality is Warner is shipping Blu-Ray and HD DVD in many of the same titles and -- given the relatively low volumes -- prospering in both. One format (HD DVD) is trying to gain the upper hand in "stand-alone" players -- leading in the US and attempting to soundly dominate in Europe.

This must be a cautionary tale to the the Blu-Ray only camp in Apr 2007 trying to make plans for Sep 2007-Jan 2008 -- the selling season representing the lion's share of their annual sales. What titles to have in market? How many in what formats?

Yes, even in 2007 high definition DVD is a relative footnote to the market: but it will also be THE market in 2009/2010. Lessons learned NOW will drive profits in 2008 to set up manufacturing and marketing decisions in 2009 which may make or break the company. Yup, for some, the stakes ARE that high.
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post #10 of 22 (permalink) Old 2007-04-27, 01:19 AM
 
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The following is sarcastic... Wow! Nearly one million sold!

Disc sales seem to mean alot to some people here but who is in the lead in this respect can change. Ultimately what is going to determine the "winner" will be who has the most success selling their stand-alone players. I don't even get impressed with PS3/XBox arguments because those are not usually bought for their dvd/hd disc playing features they are mainly bought for gaming and as more games come out people will be mainly using it for games.

Whoever gets more standalone players to the masses will "win" and the movie studios will follow suit.

I am still of the opinion that HD Discs are a niche market and will stay that way unless they can RAPIDLY do something abou ttheir prices and can lure people away from their much more affordable SD DVD players and movies.
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post #11 of 22 (permalink) Old 2007-04-27, 04:24 PM
 
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The following is sarcastic... Wow! Nearly one million sold!
I don't even get impressed with PS3/XBox arguments because those are not usually bought for their dvd/hd disc playing features they are mainly bought for gaming and as more games come out people will be mainly using it for games.
For the PS3, I tend to agree. Most user will check out/buy some BR because they have the reader, but they did not necessarly buy the console for the watching BR movies.

As for the XBOX 360 I disagree. since the HD DVD is a separate add-on and only works for movie. No game on HD DVD, then those sale should be considered like a stand alone.
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post #12 of 22 (permalink) Old 2007-04-27, 06:09 PM
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Originally Posted by calvin940 View Post
As for attach rates, my personal belief is that they are important, but the HD DVD group once again plays both sides of the fence. BD group says we have 4 million players, HD DVD group says "yeah, but the attach rate .. blah blah blah". OTOH, BD groups says we sold 1 Million discs, HD DVD group says well ya, but you have 4 Million players (reference to attach rate now nowhere to be found). You simply cannot play it that way.
Cal
However I am trying to understand your point, I can't. Where's the contradiction and what cannot be played that way?

Fact 1: BD discs sold = HD DVD discs sold (approximately)
Fact 2: BD Players - 4 mln (approximately) => 0.25 discs per player, HD DVD players - 200,000 (approximately) => 5 discs per player => HD DVD has 20 times the attach rate of BD.

If this attach rate does not change drastically very soon - that can only be done by the drastic increase of standalone BD players instead of PS3 - BD is in big trouble.
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post #13 of 22 (permalink) Old 2007-04-27, 06:43 PM
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However I am trying to understand your point, I can't. Where's the contradiction and what cannot be played that way?
The contradiction (in my opinion) is claiming there are 4 million players if you bring attach rate into the picture. Because it is both a game machine and a player, I think it's invalid to talk about them without talking about how many of those purchasers bought it as a BD player or as also using it as a BD player (attach rate) given that it is primarily a game machine and a BD player second. Therefore it makes sense to talk about how many people use it as a BD player and hence you cannot claim that there are 4 Million BD players people are using as BD players.

OTOH, A DVD player or HD DVD player can only be a player and not a game machine so therefore every HD DVD player is a player and therefore you can quote the entire number sold 100% (this actually goes for the 360 add-on since it has nothing to do with gaming.. it only plays HD DVD content).

Quote:
Fact 1: BD discs sold = HD DVD discs sold (approximately)
Fact 2: BD Players - 4 mln (approximately) => 0.25 discs per player, HD DVD players - 200,000 (approximately) => 5 discs per player => HD DVD has 20 times the attach rate of BD.
So, based on my explanation, your above fact 2 is flawed: you cannot claim all 4 million as BD players. You need to factor in attach rate as a player (which according to a survey mentioned by james99 is 12%). So there are 480,000 PS3's being used as BD players and however many standalone BD players were sold. Then, you take that 1+ million discs sold and divide by that total number you got which will give you discs per player.

I also agree that Blu-ray needs more consumer participants to survive.

Cal
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post #14 of 22 (permalink) Old 2007-04-28, 06:33 AM
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Paramount's analyst counts 22% of a PS3s as standalones. That means he thinks it takes 4.5 PS3s to equal one standalone in terms of disc sales.

I think that's in the right ballpark. (I would have guessed ~4 PS3s for every 1 standalone.)

To put it another way, if in fiscal 2007 (April 2007 to March 2008), three million HD DVD players are sold, it would take 13.5 million PS3s to match, or else something like 6.75 million PS3s and 1.5 million Blu-ray players.

Why do I mention this arbitrary three million HD DVD player number? Cuz Toshiba claims that 4 to 5 million HD DVD players will be sold during fiscal 2007. My three million number is assuming that Toshiba is overly optimistic, and only 60-75% of that number of HD DVD players might actually be sold (which still may arguably be optimistic).
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post #15 of 22 (permalink) Old 2007-04-28, 10:03 PM
 
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Paramount's analyst counts 22% of a PS3s as standalones. That means he thinks it takes 4.5 PS3s to equal one standalone in terms of disc sales.

I think that's in the right ballpark. (I would have guessed ~4 PS3s for every 1 standalone.)

To put it another way, if in fiscal 2007 (April 2007 to March 2008), three million HD DVD players are sold, it would take 13.5 million PS3s to match, or else something like 6.75 million PS3s and 1.5 million Blu-ray players.

Why do I mention this arbitrary three million HD DVD player number? Cuz Toshiba claims that 4 to 5 million HD DVD players will be sold during fiscal 2007. My three million number is assuming that Toshiba is overly optimistic, and only 60-75% of that number of HD DVD players might actually be sold (which still may arguably be optimistic).
Also consider that presumeably some PS3 buyers have no HDTV, but will upgrade over time. They now have an already available Blu Ray player they can use. So Blu Ray sales from the PS3 will naturally grow over time (how much is anyone's guess).

However, Blu Ray does needs to wean themselves off PS3 as their growth engine.

I would suspect that will happen this year.
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