Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Downtown Toronto • Toshiba 52XL177 • HD DVD Toshiba • Rogers HDPVR Cisco 8642
While it is true that it doesn't matter much if BD sells 1m disks and HD sells 0.8m disks in a given period when the content playing field isn't level (ie. latest big hits vs. latest big hits available equally in both formats); it will matter more as time goes by that BD sells as many stand-alone players, or more, than the HD camp. And I don't mean 100k vs 80k. I mean 4m BD players vs 3 or 4 or 5m HD players.
If and when the installed base of stand-alone players tilts dramatically one way or the other, that's a signal. At this early stage, disk sales are less telling.
I am speculating, of course: but I think anyone buying a new Blu-Ray or HD DVD stand alone player to hook up to his shiny (relatively) new HD widescreen TV is likely to be willing to fork out for 3 to 10 disks over the first two to 6 months of ownership. If one format takes a significant lead in hardware, disk sales will follow and that trend will encourage further disk title manufacture.
I will be very interested to see the release schedule of the Blu-Ray/HD DVD disks for Sep & Oct 2007.