Are we headed for a 'Maunder minimum' - Canadian TV, Computing and Home Theatre Forums
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post #1 of 2 (permalink) Old 2012-01-30, 01:44 AM Thread Starter
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Are we headed for a 'Maunder minimum'

The last Maunder minimum was from 1645 to 1715 and coincided nicely with the coldest part of the Little Ice Age. The Maunder minimum is about sunspots and for those who think the sun has a lot to do with climate, few sunspots are a bad thing - it gets cold.

This rather lengthly headline, Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about (and if NASA scientists are right the Thames will be freezing over again) and the story within are interesting. For example, the MET Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit released a report indicating that there has been no global warming for 15 years.

Experts disagree on the implications of solar cycle minimum.
Although the sun’s output is likely to decrease until 2100, ‘This would only cause a reduction in global temperatures of 0.08C.’ Peter Stott, one of the authors, said: ‘Our findings suggest a reduction of solar activity to levels not seen in hundreds of years would be insufficient to offset the dominant influence of greenhouse gases.’

These findings are fiercely disputed by other solar experts.

‘World temperatures may end up a lot cooler than now for 50 years or more,’ said Henrik Svensmark, director of the Center for Sun-Climate Research at Denmark’s National Space Institute. ‘It will take a long battle to convince some climate scientists that the sun is important. It may well be that the sun is going to demonstrate this on its own, without the need for their help.’

He pointed out that, in claiming the effect of the solar minimum would be small, the Met Office was relying on the same computer models that are being undermined by the current pause in global-warming.
It will be interesting to see how the various camps, for and against global warming, position themselves. As previously stated, the sun doesn't care what the experts think, it will do whatever.

Graphs and interpretations thereof can be viewed here Headlines over solar cycle 25 and potential global cooling. Don't worry, if your perspective is different I have every confidence that over the next months / years interpretations will be presented to please everyone. Which interpretation turns out to be true will be for history to decide.
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post #2 of 2 (permalink) Old 2012-01-30, 09:51 AM
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