So to sum up the last 5 years
[x] SDV - completed 2008 - channel reclamation saves 58% bandwidth per node on average
[ ] Digital migration - Not completed (Stage 1 complete EOY 2012)
[ ] FTTC + Node Splits - Not completed (Ongoing)
[ ] Greenfield FTTH - Not completed (Ongoing)
[ ] MPEG4 - Not completed (Not even started)
So we're batting 1 for 5 here.
"Maybe upload is important to you, but it clearly isn't important enough to the vast majority of consumers. Rogers knows this"
Most people may not "want" faster upload now because they have never been able to experience the benefits of it. People didn't want touch screen phones before Apple made an iPhone either. What does that tell you? You can't use market research like some kind of rosetta stone of investing. If you can create good experiences people's opinions and behaviours change overnight.
Also market research is completely irrelevant when you the Bell/Rogers cartel basically influencing what product people want through smear campaigns and other marketing activities.
So to break down their bandwidth allocation for 860MHz
- 72MHz 8 channel Downstream for modems
- 37MHz subdiv'd 4 channel Upstream for Modems (24MHz), 1 channel Upstream for PacketCable (6MHz), 1 channel Upstream for STBs (6MHz)
We still have 751MHz left!!!
You can fit 100 SDV channels on 600MHz. Why hasn't Rogers started using MPEG4? They can squeeze 75% more channels in each 6MHz.
Why is there so much fuss about "recovery costs" for the digital migration. Did everyone forget about the digital recovery fee and inflated STB rental/purchase prices? For every guy that gets a new plasma and HD STB rental installed Rogers are collecting $16.13/month. That's $194 per YEAR. Plenty to work with. We are after all talking about the most profitable MSO in the world here. On top of that they charge $50 per truck roll for every new outlet install (lots of people previously using 1 outlet and splitters with analog). Unless you luck out with a promotion applied to your account.
Anyway, I don't see a bandwidth problem. I see an organisational efficiency problem. Rogers digital migration is moving way slower than anywhere else in the world. Almost every other MSO has got at LEAST their main markets up and running respectable speeds on DOCSIS 3. 66% of Rogers market is in the GTA and we haven't seen any materially new services activated in 3 years. Once they turn off 40 analog channels they don't need more bandwidth. They'll HAVE enough to do 8x4 (why else loan out these new Cisco modems?). They just need to use that bandwidth properly. If 8x4 DOCSIS3 can run 304/108Mbps, Ultimate should use all of that. And higher speeds would be applied proportionately to each lower tier. Bell internet customers would rush out of their service contracts for that.
Modern HFC with deep fibre nodes is essentially the same as FTTN. A node is going to be a few hundred meters from your house. No amplifiers required. As of 2008
, Rogers node density was 350 subscribers on average. Comcast had an average node density of 250 with their setup in 2009. These numbers can be reduced way further, by building fibre deeper into the network you can serve 32 subs with 304/108Mbps reliably. 32:1 or 16:1 sub ratios are standard for G-PON FTTH so this can be re-purposed extremely easily in the future.
Internet is an area Rogers need to improve, 52% of homes passed by Rogers don't have cable internet. CAGR is 7%, I wouldn't call that relatively flat-it's still growing. But it could grow faster.